Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Translated brackets are up!

The matchups were mentioned earlier, but here is the spreadsheet with the brackets.  Games start in less than 6 hours!

Translated rosters...

... are finally done!  Took a while for some teams as they don't start their first 9 (for those that aren't familiar, generally the starting 9 have a number that corresponds with the position number they play, 1 = P, 2 = C, 3 = 1B, etc.).  Hanamaki Higashi is a good example.  Their SS wears #4, their 2B wears #6.  Their 1B wears #7 (which should be LF), while their actual LF wears #8 and their CF who should wear #8 wears #17.  Finally, #10 (which is usually a P), plays 3B.

In other notes, there are teams that have apparently changed around their starting 9 so that they get more offense in.  Case in point is Yokohama where 1B Ozeki Ikki has been moved to C so that backup 1B Yamauchi Tatsuya, who hit well in the fall, can get into the lineup.

Anyways, T-6 hours to opening ceremonies, and T-7 hours and 20 minutes to approximate first pitch!  Welcome to senbatsu!

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Senbatsu full draw is finally out!

So, the random draw for senbatsu is out and here is the draw (teams in same quadrant in same colors):

Day 1, Game 1 - 10:20 - Mie (Mie) v. Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori)
Day 1, Game 2 - 12:50 - Tsuruga Kehi (Gifu) v. Urawa Gakuin (Saitama)
Day 1, Game 3 - 15:20 - Osaka Touin (Osaka) v. Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate)
Day 2, Game 1 - 09:00 - Kyushu Gakuin (Kumamoto) v. Memanbetsu (Hokkaido)

Osaka Touin apparently has a pitcher worthy of the ace designation.  Should that really be the case, their offense can let it rip all day.

Hanamaki Higashi was my wild card going in, able to play toe-to-toe with the top tier competition and giving teams who may have overlooked them the scare of their lives.

Even still, Hanamaki Higashi has to have the worst luck recently.  It was Teikyou in the summer, now it's Osaka Touin in the spring.  That's gotta hurt.  Interestingly, it'll be the battle of the two tallest pitchers in the tournament, 191 cm Ootani Shouhei for Hanamaki Higashi versus 197 cm Fujinami Shintarou.  Should be an great game, even without the towers taking the mound.

I love Mie, because while they are not necessarily considered one of the real rural teams, they have the blue collar mentality that I love.  I still think of that 3B coach/player who was not waving the runner home with one arm, but with both!

However, they get Chuugoku champion Tottori Jyouhoku.  I'm not looking forward to that matchup.

The far north draws the far south.  Memanbetsu is given no favors in their first appearance, drawing one of the better teams from Kyushu.  I want to see Hokkaido do good so bad, you don't even know.

And overlooked is Tsuruga Kehi and Urawa Gakuin, two regulars who don't really stand out this year.


Day 2, Game 2 - 11:30 - Tenri (Nara) v. Takasaki Kenkoudai Fukushi (Gunma)
Day 2, Game 3 - 14:00 - Ishinomaki Kougyou (Miyagi) v. Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima)
Day 3, Game 1 - 09:00 - Sumoto (Hyogo) v. Naruto (Tokushima)
Day 3, Game 2 - 11:30 - Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi) v. Kurashiki Shougyou (Okayama)

Despite the two 21st Century teams here, this is still a hard bracket.  Even if my team that has fallen out of favor (Tenri) advances out the first round, the likely opponent would be Kamimura Gakuen, a worthy opponent that could easily oust them from the tournament.  Meanwhile, Naruto is not a front-runner to win, but should defeat Sumoto which then puts them probably against Sakushin Gakuin - one of the favorites to win it all.

Tenri's pitching I don't think is strong enough to last, and I expect a loss to Kamimura Gakuen.  They in turn would probably face Sakushin Gakuin.  Should be a good quarterfinal game.


Day 3, Game 3 - 14:00 - Oumi (Shiga) v. Takasaki (Gunma)
Day 4, Game 1 - 09:00 - Hokushou (Hokkaido) v. Kousei Gakuin (Aomori)
Day 4, Game 2 - 11:30 - Chikyuu Kankyou (Nagano) v. Riseisha (Osaka)
Day 4, Game 3 - 14:00 - Miyazaki Nishi (Miyazaki) v. Aikoudai Meiden (Aichi)

The big elephant in the room is that the finalists of the Meiji Jingu Tournament reside here in this quadrant.  Bad news for all other teams here as they will have to get through one, if not both teams if they wish to advance to the semifinals.

Looks like neither team from Hokkaido has been given any help.  Fall champ Hokushou has the unfortunate honor of being Kousei's first opponent.  Meanwhile Miyazaki Nishi, who was chosen over Souseikan draws Ichiro's Aikoudai Meiden.  They'll have to prove their worth immediately or be sent home after one game.

My favorite team this time around (not necessarily to win, mind you) is Chikyuu Kankyou.  I can't believe they actually made it, but they're thrown immediately into the fire with a game against Riseisha.  Should they survive that, it's probably Aikoudai Meiden.  Fun times.

Chances are we're going to see that finals rematch in the quarterfinals.  And I bet Aikoudai Meiden will be licking its chops to exact a bit of revenge in that game.


Day 5, Game 1 - 09:00 - Yokohama (Kanagawa) v. Kochi (Kochi)
Day 5, Game 2 - 11:30 - Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima) v. Toba (Kyoto)
Day 5, Game 3 - 14:00 - Hayatomo (Yamaguchi) v. Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
Day 6, Game 1 - 09:00 - Beppu Aoyama (Oita) v. Kanto Dai-ichi (Tokyo)

The final set of games present one more storyline - one that I was first-hand witness to.

I remember sitting in the 三塁 oen-dan with Yokohama, very happy having met Otosaka Tomo's father.  Yet what people, including myself, will also remember is the collapse in the 9th inning as they lost to Chiben Gakuen.

So yes, again we could have another revenge match on our hands should Yokohama and Chiben Gakuen advance past the first two rounds.  Yokohama has to get past Kochi first though, but should they do that probably face little competition against either Seikou Gakuin or Toba.

Chiben Gakuen meanwhile will face Hayatomo in the first round.  I didn't even consider Hayatomo's chances of making it into the field, but a further glance once they were first accepted showed they aren't a bad team.

Beppu Aoyama must have been very happy to have finally made it to Koushien, but their draw puts them behind the 8-ball immediately as they face Kanto Dai-ichi.  While perhaps not as strong as recent years, it can still be intimidating facing the sole representative from Tokyo.

We may very well see a rematch here too.  And while Yokohama will look to not repeat the collapse of last summer, they'll have to prove it to me first that they can have the instinct to close the game.

No predictions of who is the favorite to win now that the draw is out, but it does look to be entertaining.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Other teams... err... pitchers to watch out for

What seems to compliment any championship wining team at Koushien is a great pitcher.  They do not necessarily have to be Shimabukuro-esque, but they do generally have to throw harder than the average pitcher and/or exhibit excellent control throughout the grueling tournament.

Now, a pitcher is only part of it.  You can't win a game if you don't score.  But a good pitcher can get you pretty far (as long as your offense isn't like the 2011 Mariners - sorry).

So, which teams might have a pitcher that can give them such a chance?

Memanbetsu (Hokkaido) - 21st Century Team - Nikaidou Seiji (二階堂 誠治)
Despite coming into the tournament via a 21st Century bid, Memanbetsu's Nikaidou Seiji more than held his own in their 2nd round loss to Hokkai.  He had limited them to 3 runs in 8 innings while striking out 9.  And while Hokkaido's record outside of home field seems to be wanting, it's not a bad outing.

Nikaidou is said to have 4 pitches - a fork and shuuto to go with the obligatory curve and slider.  His fastball can hit 145, but probably sits around 140.


Mie (Mie) - Miura Koutarou (三浦 浩太郎)
Much like Nikaidou, Miura also has a fastball that sits generally around the 140 mark (though he has hit 145).  Outside of the slider, he is purported to have a change, shuuto and splitter.  However, in his 3rd game of work in the Super-Regional where they faced Aikoudai Meiden, it was a total mixed bag, giving up 3 runs in a complete game effort while striking out 9, but he gave up 11 hits and issued 4 walks.


Osaka Touin (Osaka) - Fujinami Shintarou (2) (藤浪 晋太郎)
When I think of Osaka Touin, I generally think offense.  More recently, Nakata Shou comes to mind.  Yes, he became a pitcher, but that was generally because he threw hard.

So when they come up on a search for pitchers, it definitely has my attention.

Fujinami Shintarou gets your attention right when you first see him.  He stands a towering 197 cm (6'5"), and can already hit 150 on the radar gun though he generally sits in the low-mid 140's.  To add to his height, he has an overhead delivery, which helps when he throws his 12-6 slow curve in at 100 kph.  There's question as to what his other pitches are, as he has at least another pitch that sits in the 120's.  Consensus is that he has a slider and recently picked up a forkball.

If his secondary pitches are the real thing and he's not predictable, there is a chance that Osaka Touin shouldn't be written off after all.


Tenri (Nara) - Yamanoto Tatsuya (山本 竜也)
Tenri in my opinion has fallen far.  Given Nara is a 2-team prefecture, but it has failed to progress deep at Koushien in recent years, though not necessarily because of it's pitching.  Rather, it has generally been a lack of offense on the big stage that has been their nemesis.

Still, you can't win without pitching.  The focus though has been on relief pitcher Yamamoto Tatsuya.  He throws slightly harder than staff ace Nakatani Keita (he has hit a max of 145, though he probably sits in the mid-high 130s).  He only sports a slider and slow curve, which would explain his low K rates (~5 K/9 in the Kinki Fall Super-Regionals).  He throws in the strike zone, which explains his high hit rates and low walk rates.

In contrast, Nakatani throws in the low 130's with a slider, curve and possible two-seam.


Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori) - Nishisaka Ryou (西坂 凌)
Normally a team like Tottori Jyouhoku would be passed on when talking about contenders for the title, but when a team manages to limit the eventual Meiji Jingu Champions to just 2 runs in 7 innings, you have to take some notice.  But something doesn't add up.

Nishisaka throws in the high 130's, which is not really that good.  His speed also means that he doesn't strike out that many batters, which is also not a good sign.  He had two great games against Tsuruga Kehi and Chiben Gakuen, but labored against Kousei Gakuin (8 H, 5 BB) while giving up just 2 R over 7 innings.  Apparently he has a big curve that possibly explains all this.  The question that will be asked of them is will the get the good Nishisaka all tournament?  Because any game like the one against Kousei Gakuin could take a toll later on.


Hayatomo (Yamaguchi) - Aidzu Yuusa (間津 裕瑳)
I discounted Hayatomo because, well... It's Chuugoku, and outside of teams from Hiroshima (Kouryou/Jyosuikan) and Okayama (Kanzei), there are few teams that can be considered for title contenders.

But, Hayatomo ace Aidzu Yuusa has apparently gotten some notice.  He's gotten more than his fair share of K's during the fall tournament, the only question is - how tough really was his competition?  He did after all give up 6 runs in a CG loss to Kurashiki Shougyou in the semifinals.

Aidzu has a max of 144, though probably sits more in the high-130 range.  He has a slider, curve and change, which probably puts him in the above average category.  However, there is some question regarding his control - not necessarily in that he can't find the zone (2 BB/9), but perhaps around the zone.  And you don't want a mistake in the strike zone (which may explain the game against Kurashiki Shougyou).


So, there are some aces to watch at Koushien this time around.  If one of these teams takes the flag at the end, their aces will definitely be part of the reason why.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Examining the field - Title Contenders

So, we have the full field for the 84th Haru Koushien set.  The question is, how do we handicap the field?

To be honest, a lot of the big names aren't here, and those that are (Yokohama, Osaka Touin) do not seem to be front runners to win this year.  That means that for the middle-tier teams that make it, the door appears to be open for them to walk through.  But who?

Kousei Gakuin (Aomori)
See, the thing is with Kousei was that despite reaching the final, in all the games I got to see them play live, they just didn't seem that impressive.  You never looked at the team and thought, "Wow, that's team's going to be scary."  In fact, their road to the Koushien final seemed rather pedestrian:
  • 16-1 win over Senshuudai Tamana (Kumamoto)
  • 6-5 win over Tokushima Shougyou (Tokushima)
  • 2-1 win over Touyoudai Himeji (Hyogo)
  • 5-0 win over Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi)
Add an 11-0 loss to Sanko in the final, and that just reinforced that belief.

Yet, it was Kousei that not only won their super-regional, but the Meiji Jingu tournament (albeit with a little controversy) that allowed Hanamaki Higashi to receive an invite.

Still, their 11-game winning streak was not necessarily fraught with landmines.  They had a 7-1 and 7-2 wins against Hachinohe Koudai-ichi and Aomori Yamada in the prefecturals, a 9-8 win over Hanamaki Higashi, and an 11-8 win in extras over Kamimura Gakuen and the 6-5 win over Aikoudai Meiden in the Meiji Jingu tournament.

The problem is, they're all known teams, but none have really been considered top-tier in recent years.  They're just quality wins by name only it seems.

You can't deny them though that they managed to win 11 straight regardless, especially after losing ace pitcher Akita.  Kanazawa Yuuki (金沢 湧紀) takes over as the ace pitcher.  He throws in the high 130's with a slider and curve.  It's not as fast as Akita, but he seems to have taken over nicely.

In relief is Jyouma Ryuuhei (城間 竜兵).  Not listed or used as a pitcher last year, he wears the #4 jersey.  Despite not appearing to have game experience, he can throw in the low 130's and has the obligatory slider.

Offensively, 3 players remain from last summer's team - all played in the starting 9, and interestingly enough, all of them are on the left side of the field.  There's your infield in 3B Tamura Tatsuhiro (田村 龍弘) and SS Houjyou Fumiya (北條 史也) with LF Ameku Shouto (天久 翔斗) joining them.  Houjyou was the better hitter at Koushien, though Tamura wasn't bad himself while Ameku's penchant for getting hit helped him get on base despite not carrying a good bat.
  • Ameku - 2-11, RBI, 2 K, 2 BB, 4 HBP - 0.182/0.471/0.182
  • Tamura - 5-19, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 K, 5 BB - 0.263/0.416/0.417
  • Houjyou - 7-19, 3 2B, 8 RBI, 3 K, BB - 0.368/0.400/0.526


Aikoudai Meiden (Aichi)
Well, it's hard not to mention the Meiji Jingu runner-ups, however their road included some close games against some lower-level teams.  In the super-regionals they had 4-1 wins over Komono and Shigakukan, then survived a late rally by Mie.  And though they went on at the Meiji Jingu tournament to defeat both the Tokyo and Kanto representatives in Kanto Dai-ichi and Urawa Gakuin, you could argue that combined they had one quality win the entire fall tournament (Kanto def. Teikyou 2-0).

Leading the squad is ace Hamada Tatsurou (濱田 達郎).  He has a fastball that can touch 145 km/h (~90 mph) and compliments that with a slider, splitter and curve.

Offensive, the team is led by 3B Nakano (Yoshinori) (中野 良紀).  He has good bat speed, and had a timely double and triple in the 6-5 loss to Kousei Gakuin.  Joining him is RF Matsuoka Daisuke (松岡 大介), whose name also seems to be called when a run is involved.

Meiden has had little success at Koushien recently, it'll be interesting to see if this class can turn the tide.


Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi)
Sakushin Gakuin, much like Kousei, didn't have much of a hard road to the Best 4.  They did have a win against ace Kitakata Yuujyo, and out-dueled Chiben Gakuen.  Still, the fact that they made a run to the finals of the Kanto Super-regionals defeating teams such as Hanasaki Tokuharu and Yokohama give them at least some credibility as a threat to win it all.

Leading the charge once again is ace Ootani Shigehiro (大谷 樹弘).  He performed fairly well at Natsu Koushien, but doesn't display the stuff that makes you think "dominant ace".   Instead he compliments his 141 kph fastball with a wide variety of pitches (slider, curve, change, split, shuuto) that induce contact instead.  He gives up his fair amount of hits, but limits his walks to offset it.

Offensively, there's SS Ishii Kazunari (石井 一成), who put up an impressive 0.44/0.469/0.690 at Natsu Koushien last year.  He'll have to do quite a bit better this time around that slash line.

Helping him in the middle of the lineup is Takayama Ryousuke (高山 良介), who saw a PH appearance at Koushien but not much else, yet has been slotted into the 3rd spot in the lineup this fall.


Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate)
Yes, Hanamaki Higashi made it to Senbatsu only because of Kousei Gakuin.  But I consider them a wild-card in the tournament.  They do not have the talent necessarily to be a front-runner.  However, whatever Sasaki-kantoku is preaching to his kids there, it works.  I know I've stated this to death, but Hanamaki Higashi is like that fly that bugs the crap out of you, but you just can't kill.  I don't think it matters who they face, they seem to have a chance against them.  In fact, I bet if they had played Sanko last summer, they would have given them the scare of their lives.  And so I think they are the ultimate wild card in this tournament.

Returning for Hanamaki Higashi is Ootani Shouhei (大谷 翔平), who actually came in relief in their only game against Teikyou if you don't remember and actually did a pretty good job in his stint.  He's a tall (191 cm!), hard-throwing righty who can hit the 150's, but generally settles in the upper 140's to go along with his slider, curve and good forkball.

If you had to point out someone on the offensive side, it would have to be SS Oota Kazumasa (太田 知将).  Against Teikyou, he was 2-5 with a 3B.  Now, he was 0-8 in the super-regionals, but he might be one to watch at the top of the order once again.

But really, Hanamaki Higashi generally doesn't depend on one or two players on the offensive side.  It's a concerted team effort that goes beyond individual effort.  They just work hard and never quit, there's just no other way to put it.


Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
Chiben Gakuen has always competed with Tenri, but has now finally placed their stamp as the head of the class in Nara.  Tenri over the last couple of years have frittered away chance after chance at Koushien with an inability to execute when the time is called.  Meanwhile Chiben has shown that ability, albeit with some help from Yokohama this past summer.

The thing is, the Kinki super-regional as a whole seemed down.  Chiben Gakuen had wins against Riseisha and against Tenri (twice!), while Tenri defeated an Osaka Touin that sneaked into the field.  And yet these two wound up being 1-2 in the entire region.

Taking the hill yet again for this campaign is ace Ooyama Daiki (青山 大紀).  He was on the hill against Tsuruoka Higashi and Yokohama, and came in relief when spot starter Ono failed to get past the 3rd inning.  He has a fastball in the mid-upper 140's with a two-seam fastball, change, slider and curveball.  He's not a Shimabukuro/Kikuchi K-guy, but he still manages to strike out his fair share of batters.

But if Chiben Gakuen is the best chance the Kinki region has... no offense, but good luck.


Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima)
The best chance out west lies with Kamimura Gakuen.  Denied a chance at Koushien multiple times, they've roared back and trying to stay.  Outside of letting Oita come back in the super-regional quarterfinals to make it a 7-6 ballgame, they dominated the fall.  And if not for the new tiebreaker rules, they may have usurped Kousei Gakuin at Meiji Jingu.

2nd year Hirayabi Jyuichirou (平藪 樹一郎), a lefty with a fastball that is in the low-mid-130's but has a two-seam fastball, cutter, slider and curve.  He'll need them all if he is their starter.

I only say that because they also have SS/P Kakizawa Takehiro (柿澤 貴裕).  He only pitched one inning in their opening game loss to Noushiro Shougyou, but gave up no runs on 2 hits, striking out 1.  In the fall tournaments he limited Kyushu teams to just a shade over 1 run per 9 before giving up 3 earned in 6 against the summer runner-ups.  Kakizawa has an above-average fastball that can at least get to 145 and is reported to have a slider, curve, change, and sinker.  Unless he has stamina issues, or they have no better option at the keystone, he should be taking the hill for the team.

Offensively, they turn to two players who saw little experience at Koushien, but have proven their mettle.
First up is OF Koga Iori (古賀 伊織).  He had a PH appearance at Koushien versus Noushiro Shougyou and reached on an error by P Hosaka.  Now the cleaup batter, he made a bases clearing triple to tie the game in the 8th before they fell in extras against Kousei Gakuin.

The other is the one that replaced him after the PH appearance, Niiro Shinya (新納 真哉).  A good eye helps him draw walks, and a time to 1st base of 4 seconds helped him steal 11 bags in the fall tournament.


There may be others in the field, and I'll try to cover players and teams as I look into it further.  But on first glance, these teams may be the front-runners to win it all this spring.

Friday, January 27, 2012

84th Koushien Field

So the field has indeed been announced and it is as follows:

Hokkaido
  • Hokushou
Tohoku
  • Kousei Gakuin (Aomori)
  • Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima)
  • Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate)
Kanto
  • Urawa Gakuin (Saitama)
  • Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi)
  • Takasaki Kenkou Fukushi (Gunma)
  • Takasaki (Gunma)
  • Yokohama (Kanagawa) - 14th appearance, 2nd consecutive
Tokyo
  • Kanto Dai-ichi
 Hokushinetsu
  • Tsuruga Kehi (Fukui)
  • Chikyuu Kankyou (Nagano)
Tokai
  • Aikoudai Meiden (Aichi)
  • Mie (Mie)
Kinki
  • Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
  • Tenri (Nara)
  • Riseisha (Osaka)
  • Oumi (Shiga)
  • Osaka Touin (Osaka)
  • Toba (Kyoto)
Chuugoku
  • Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori)
  • Kurashiki Shougyou (Okayama)
  • Hayatomo (Yamaguchi) - 1st apperance
Shikoku
  • Naruto (Tokushima)
  • Kochi (Kochi)
Kyushu
  • Kamimura Gakuin (Kagoshima)
  • Kyushu Gakuin (Kumamoto)
  • Beppu Aoyama (Oita)
  • Miyazaki Nishi (Miyazaki) - 1st appearance
21st Century Bids
  • Memanbetsu (Hokkaido) - 1st appearance
  • Ishinomaki Kougyou (Miyagi) - 1st appearance
  • Sumoto (Hyogo) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 26 years

Wow.  Not what I expected.

So first of all, I was 0 for 2 on floating bids.  Yokohama, not Teikyou go the floating bid.  It could be the redemption card played by the committee to see if Yokohama can correct the debacle they had.  Or, perhaps they're expecting the debacle to happen again.  The other possibility is that no team from Chiba or Kanagawa earned a bid otherwise.  It's possible to keep interest in the surrounding area, they chose a neighboring team in Yokohama over one in Tokyo in Teikyou.

And it's not Meitoku Gijyuku, but Hayatomo who gets the bid.  Perhaps with the chalkiness of the field, they wanted to give some teams a first appearance. Or maybe they weighted that 2nd bid to Kochi more than I had thought.

(Editor's note:  After typing up my review on the Chuugoku region, I realize that Yamaguchi-ken fared better in sending representatives to Koushien, and as such their wins - especially against Yasu which I overlooked, perhaps weighed into their favor)

Souseikan getting passed over is a bit of a shame.  It's not their fault that they drew a weak bracket.  But I suppose it is their fault they were 4-hit in a 7-inning mercy game.  Combine that with Miyazaki Nishi limiting the runner-ups to 2 runs may have given them the nod.

Now as for the strength of the 21st century teams, Memanbetsu out of Hokkaido finally gets their first shot at Koushien, and gives Hokkaido a 2nd team.  They lost to Hokkai in the 2nd round of the Super-Regional 4-0, so it'll be hard to peg them for a win in the tournament unless they get an easy draw.

Ishinomaki Kougyou.  I don't know if this is a がんばれ日本! type of award given all the things that have happened to them.  They lost 8-1 to Kousei Gakuin in the Tohoku Super-Regionals, and did not have a real quality win.

Finally there's Sumoto, who was the odd team out in the Hyogo prefecutral Best 4.  They did beat Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku, but lost handily to Houtoku Gakuen and Ikuei.

One thing's for sure.  One, maybe two, of those three 21st century team will have to thank Miyazaki Nishi for receiving a bid over Souseikan and possibly Takasaki for receiving consideration.  Miyazaki Nishi was one of the finalists for the 21st century bids and if not for Souseikan's loss, they may not be going to Haru Koushien.  Takasaki was definitely more of a shoe-in for a bid than Miyazaki Nishi, and this reduced the field of possible selections from 9 to 7.

Fall Tournament and Recap and possible invitees (Meiji Jingu + Floating Bids)

In the interests of getting my projections out before the invitations are posted I am including them here before they are announced.

Meiji Jingu Tournament
With all super-regionals done, the Meiji Jingu Tournament is held to determine a champion for the fall, but more importantly determine which region will receive an important extra bid.  For those who just missed, they're rooting for their region to win.

When the draw came out, the 4 teams having to play an extra game were Tsuruga Kehi (Hokushinetsu) v. Tottori Jyouhoku (Chuugoku), and Kanto Dai-ichi (Tokyo) v. Aikoudai Meiden (Tokai).  While Chiben Gakuen (Kinki) and Urawa Gakuin (Kanto) were waiting respectively, opposite sides were going to war as Kamimura Gakuen (Kyushu) faced off against Natsu Koushien runner-up Kousei Gakuin (Tohoku) and Naruto (Tokushima) and Hokushou (Hokkaido) butted heads.


Day 1 was the extra games.  Tottori Jyouhoku scored a run in the 1st due to an error and tacked on a run in the 7th.  Down to their final out, Yamamoto Ryuu delivers a 2-out 2-run double to right center to tie the game.

A new rule was instituted, but I don't know if it was instituted just for the Meiji Jingu Tournament, or for all tournaments going forward.  In the event of a tie (unless it's the finals), each half inning will begin with the bases-loaded with one out.  I understand that for softball, but for baseball I don't think I like this rule...

Despite the new rules, neither team could score in the 10th.  But in the 11th, Tottori Jyouhoku would send 7 men to the plate and score 7 runs.  Tsuruga Kehi couldn't respond and lost 9-4.

The 2nd game of the day was just as exciting as aces Hamada (Aikoudai Meiden) and Nakamura (Kanto Dai-ichi) squared off.  However, all the runs were scored in the 3rd as Meiden outscored Kanto 2-1.  Hamada would give up just the 1 run on 5 hits to advance his team to the next round.

The new enchousen rules continue to show up at Meiji Jingu.  After trading a run in the first two innings, Kousei Gakuin scored 4 runs to lead 6-2 to Kamimura Gakuen.  But in the 8th, Kamimura would rally for all 4 runs to tie the game and send it to enchousen.  In the 10th Kamimura was able to score 2.  But an error in the bottom half would take back one, and cleanup hitter Houjyou would hit a sayonara manrui homerun to left to defeat Kamimura Gakuen 11-8.

In the late game, Naruto and Hokushou would score a run in back to back half innings to send the game into enchousen.  Hokushou looked to seal the game with a 2-spot in the 10th, only to see Naruto level it once again.  Finally, Hokushou would score two more in the 11th, and hold Naruto off for the win.

Day 3 saw teams perhaps wanting to avoid the roulette that was extra innings.  Tottori Jyouhoku, having survived one round of that, found themselves behind Chiben Gakuen 3-0 heading into the last innings.  They would rally for 6 runs and hold off Chiben 6-4 to setup a match with Kousei Gakuin.

Aikoudai Meiden was having their own troubles against Urawa Gakuin.  Unable to generate any offense, they were down 1-0 with 6 outs to go.  The light went off somehow, as Aikoudai Meiden would score 8 unanswered to move on to meet Hokushou.

So now we were in the semifinals.  Tottori Jyouhoku would not have a reply this time against the summer runner-ups.  Kousei's ace Kanazawa would limit them to just 4 hits in 8 innings as they move in an 8-inning 7-0 win.  Hokushou would suffer a similar fate as Aikoudai Meiden slowly built a 5-1 lead and win 6-2.

And so it was Aikouidai Meiden and Kousei Gakuin in the finals.  The teams would trade blows throughout the game.  Meiden would score the first couple of runs in the 2nd and 3rd before Kousei would strike back with one, cutting the deficit to 2-1.  They would then trade another run in the 5th.  Still up 1, Meiden's Nakano would hit a 2-run triple in the lucky 7 to lead 5-2.

That's when Kousei Gakuin would get to work...

Tamura and Houjyou lead off with back-to-back hits.  Takeda follows that up with a sac fly, making it 5-3.  Oosugi takes a full count pitch away down the 3rd base line for a RBI double, making it a 1-run game!  Kimura delivers a hit to right!  The throw comes home, but it's a little late and Nakamura can't handle it!  Kousei Gakuin managed to tie the game at 5!

They weren't done.  In the 8th, Houjyou comes up with 2 down and a runner at 2nd.  He takes a pitch to deep center, and the CF just misses it!  The ball goes all the way to the wall as Houjyou completes the comeback with an RBI triple!

The game did not end without drama.  Down to their final out, the batter swings and misses on strike 3, but the ball gets away from the C!  Everyone thinks the game is over, but Meiden's kantoku and 3rd base coach are out trying to motion his players to run.  However, the runner at first heads back to home plate for the post-game bow.

What the kantoku was referring to was the controversial game between Toukaidai Sagami and Yokohama back on July 28, 2007.  In their game, Sagami led 3-0, and had runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs.  The pitch to the batter was check-swung, but did not hold it in time and so was strike 3.  However, the ball bounced before the catcher caught it, so the C had to touch the batter.  Instead, they threw the ball to the mound and headed back to the dugout.

However, Toukaidai Sagami's kantoku told his players to run, and since none of them had moved, all of them ran around the bases, including the batter.  When the batter came around to touch home, the umpires counted all runs.  Despite Yokohama's protests, because the ball hadn't been fielded cleanly, it was the responsibility of the defense to tag the catcher, irregardless of where the runners are.  Since they did not, all 3 runners scored and Yokohama went on to lose 6-4.

The reason why this is important was because had the 1st base runner not walked back home, both the runner at 1st and the batter could have advanced safely.  But because the runner came back home for the bow, he would have been called out for leaving the basepath, and the game would have been over anyways.  A heads-up play by the kantoku, but not by his player.  Certainly Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou and Shigakukan will think about what might have possibly been had Meiden continued the inning.

And with that Kousei Gakuin claims their first Meiji Jingu Fall title and more importantly, Tohoku is awarded the Meiji Jingu bid.  The semifinalists were Hanamaki Higashi and Aomori Yamada.  Although Aomori Yamada has not been to Koushien in several years, Hanamaki Higashi took Kousei Gakuin to the limit in their semifinal game.  Combine that with their constant scrappiness shown during Kikuchi Yuusei's tenure and beyond, the Meiji Jingu bid will be projected to go to:

Meiji Jingu Bid - Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years


Floating Bids
We have our 2 floating bids remaining outside of the three 21st Century Bids.

Kanto/Tokyo Floating Bid
The first is shared between the Kanto and Tokyo regions.  The 4 quarterfinalists in the Kanto region were:
  • Chiba Eiwa (Chiba)
  • Koufu Kougyou (Yamanashi)
  • Yokohama (Kanagawa)
  • Toukaidai Koufu (Yamanashi)
The runner-up in the Tokyo region was Teikyou.

A first glance would probably have the bid awarded to Yokohama or Teikyou.  Sorry, but name matters here.  However, Yokohama lost to Sakushin Gakuin handily 6-2.  Teikyou's loss?  They were one-hit by Kanto Dai-ichi.  To me, both losses open up the bid to the other 3 teams if they deserve it.

The problem is that none of the other teams made a real strong case to be chosen over the incumbents.  Only Toukaidai Koufu had a respectable loss, but it was to Takasaki, who lost 6-3 to Sakushin Gakuin.

So with no clear standout of the 5 teams, either the committee can choose a newcomer or choose an incumbent.  I just can't see the committee handing it to any of the "no names".  They just don't have the quality wins or quality losses that might make them enticing.

And then it's hard to choose Yokohama given their collapse against Chiben Gakuen this past Natsu Koushien, and Teikyou did defeat Kokugakuin, Nishhou Gakushadai Fuzoku, and Nichidai Tsurugaoka.

So with that resume, and despite the one-hit loss, I have the bid going as follows:

Kanto/Tokyo Floating Bid - Teikyou (Tokyo) - 15th appearance, 1st in 2 years


Chuugoku/Shikoku Floating Bid

The other is shared between the Chuugoku and Shikoku.  The semifinalists in the two regions:
  • Hayatomo (Yamaguchi)
  • Taisha (Shimane)
  • Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi)
  • Takamatsu Shougyou (Kagawa)
The easy name that stands out is Meitoku Gigyuku.  They lost to Kochi after defeating them in the prefectural semifinals.  Losing to a team you're facing the 2nd time around probably will benefit them in the committee's eyes.

So in all probability the other 3 teams will have to present a strong case to be selected above Meitoku Gijyuku.

Takamatsu Shougyou lost to Naruto 7-1 in part due to a 6-run inning.  They did defeat Naruto Kougyou 1-0, but their only other quality wins was a 2-0 win over Sangawa in the prefectural finals.  The 5-3 win over Kannonji Chuo was a gyakuten victory with 4 in the 9th.  There doesn't seem to be enough there.

Over to the Chuugoku region, and Hayatomo lost 6-3 to Kurashiki Shougyou due to a 5-run 1st.  Outside of that game, all they have is a win against fellow entrant Nanyou Kougyou.  Playing someone from the same prefecture here hurts them given the perceived strength of Yamaguchi-ken.

That leaves Taisha.  Sadly, with a 7-0 mercy rule loss to Tottori Jyouhoku, and a down year in a super-regionals without big names, I just don't see them making it either.

So by default, the floating bid goes to:

Chuugoku/Shikoku Floating Bid - Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi) - 15th appearance, 2nd consecutive

There is one caveat though.  This floating bid would go to a team that already has one team going.  They may be hesitant to award a second team from the prefecture a bid, but I don't think it outweighs the lack of resume strength the other teams carry.

Fall Tournament Recap and possible invitees (Kyushu)

In the interests of getting my projections out before the invitations are posted I am including them here before they are announced.

Kyushu Super-Regionals (4 bids)
Kyushu had a lot of promise in Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku, but the battery has graduated, and the area is once again up for grabs.

Oita is the home for the tournament this time around, so they'll get an extra bid (4) this year to the super-regionals.

Oita
Oita had a resurgence at Koshien it seemed when Imamiya Kenta and Meihou made a deep run only to run into Hanamaki Higashi.  But otherwise the prefecture has struggled as a whole.

So it's really hard to peg who's strong in the region.  There's Meihou, but they lost in the 3rd round 7-4 to Oita.  For their part, Oita made it to the semifinals after defeating Oita Houfu in the next game.

There was last year's fall winner Touin, and they made it to the Best 4 which included a win against 2008 participant Hita Rinkou.

And with the prefecture weaker, other teams scrambled to try and give their school a chance at the title.  Oita Kagaku Gijyutsu was one of those teams, surviving two 1-run games including one against Youshikan.  The other would be Beppu Aoyama, 2005 Natsu reprentative.  In their 3 games they only yielded 3 runs, all against Tsukumi.

With the extra bid, all 4 teams would advance to the super-regionals.  The question was where would they be seeded.

Touin, despite winning last year, would give up a 5-spot to Oita in the top of the 1st.  That would be the winning margin as they won 10-5.  Meanwhile, Oita Kagaku Gijyutsu would continue to surprise, as they head to the finals with a 5-3 win!

And they would complete the upset by scoring the first 5 runs in an 8-4 win over Oita in the finals, giving themselves their first ever fall title!


Fukuoka
Kyukoku without their 1-2 battery mates would have to try and repeat the feat.  And though they seemed to gain momentum as the tournament progress, they would only make it to the quarterfinals of the Hokubu region before being unceremoniously ousted 9-2 by Kurate Ryuutoku

That allowed teams that had perhaps taken a back seat to rise again (at least for now).  In the Hokubu region, that meant Iidzuka and Jiyuugaoka would advance to the semis where they would clash.  Jiyuugaoka would get the better of that matchup and never trail in a 8-4 win.  Ikutokukan would be their matchup in the regional finals, and they more than held their own.  Trailing 2-0, then later 4-3, they would rally to tie the score and send it into enchousen.  But eventually the lack of pitching depth would catch up with Ikutokukan and reliever Akiyoshi would give up a 4-spot to Jiyuugaoka, signaling their death knell.

The Nanbu region had teams such as Oomuta, Chikuyou Gakuen and Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou.  Eager to take the opportunity of regaining the seat at the head of the table, each of these teams reached the semifinals.  Of note, Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou had to defeat Higashi-Fukuoka, Yanagawa and Nishi-Nippon Tankidai Fuzoku just to reach the Best 4!

Fukuoka Dai-ichi would be the 4th member of the semifinals, and though they had a great run, and held their own against Oomuta, their ace Chou would fade late yielding 5 runs in the last 4 innings to fall 7-3.

Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou meanwhile may have felt that their luck had run out as they trailed Chikuyou Gakuen 4-1 heading into the late innings.  But somehow they managed to rally for 4 runs in the top of the 8th to take a 5-4 lead!  They'd hold onto the lead and face their 5th former Koushien participant just for an automatic bid!

And boy did they ever shut the door.  With the end in sight for an automatic bid, they annihilated Oomuta 15-0 to secure a place in the super-regionals.

So in the championship, which would be done just for seeding purposes, Jiyuugaoka would jump out to a 6-1 lead en route to a 8-5 win.  This would be just their 2nd ever fall title.  Meanwhile Oomuta would claim the final spot, scoring the sayonara run over Ikutokukan 3-2.


Saga
Deanna would probably go on and on about Saga Kita if she could.  That magical run culminating in the gyakuten win over Kouryou perhaps jumpstarted something in the region.  Though they may not have returned to senbatsu, they were experiencing a slight bump much like Saga Shougyou's win back in 1994.  But Karatsu Shougyou's Kitakata has graduated to the majors, so it'll have to be another team to step up

But who?  Perhaps a recent participant such as Saga Gakuen or Saga Shougyou?  Or perhaps someone new?

Early on, it there were some new names advancing through the field.  Keitoku for instance was able to move through their quadrant after the early upset of Saga Shougyou by Kanzaki Seimei.  They'd beat the same team 5-1 for a spot in the semis.
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Opposite them, 1995 Natsu representative Ryuukoku cut their way through, including a quality 3-0 win over Ogi.

On the other half, Karatsu Shougyou after a 1-0 win the first round to Karatsu Nishi, fell 1-0 to Kashima.
However, they couldn't advance past the next stage as Koushikan won a high-scoring 9-6 affair to advance to the semis.

The final spot in the Best 4 would be filled by a familiar face.  Despite one of Waseda Saga's better runs in the field, they are rejected yet again, this time a 3-1 loss to Tosu in the quarterfinals.  Don't count Waseda Saga out though, for a school that was established just in 2010, it's scary to think what might happen in future years.


For now, Tosu takes full advantage of the opportunity.  Ace Hase limits Koushikan to just 1 run in a 4-1 win, securing one of two spots for the super-regional.  Meanwhile, Keitoku threw 5 different pitchers in an attempt to stop Ryuukoku... but to no avail.  A 7-1 win would give Ryuukoku the other bid.

In the final, Ryuukoku would break a 1-1 tie in the 6th, but ace Nakano couldn't finish it out.  Tosu would score 2 in the 8th as Hase would shut the door in the 9th giving Tosu their first title in 9 years (10th overall).


Nagasaki
I'm not sure what got me hooked on Seihou from Nagasaki.  Perhaps it was their failed run in 2006 with a 21-0 loss to Yokohama in the final that made me root for the underdog.  I got paid off 3 years later when Imamura Takeru took the same school over Kikuchi Yuusei and Hanamaki Higashi for the title.  It also doesn't mean I can't ask for more. Ne?

But there are other claimants to the head of the class.  Nagasaki Nichidai has represented the prefecture more than a couple of times.  Hasami last year upended the same Yokohama squad in a shocking upset.

In the Nagasaki Regionals, last year's Natsu representative Kaisei wanted to show they were sticking around, and while it was tough sledding in the semifinal and final, a 3-1 win over Nagasaki Shougyou gave them the win.

To the Sasebo Regionals and Hasami and Seihou marched through the brackets with no one able to stop their eventual meetup in the finals.  Seihou's timing might suggest that they'd head back to senbatsu, but they wouldn't win the region as Hasami wins 6-3.

Finally in the Naka Regionals lied Nagasaki Nichidai.  They too looked fairly strong, but their shot at winning the regionals was rejected by Souseikan in an 11-6 loss in the finals.

Like the super-regionals, winning the region matters as teams receive a bye.  Now with 3 regions and 4 byes, one 2nd place team has to be "upgraded" as it were.  That went to Seihou.

They'd reward that bid with a 3-2 win over Nagasaki Shougyou in the quarters.  Hasami and Souseikan would also advance with 1-run victories.  Kaisei though would have to face Nagasaki Nichidai, and their run ended there with a 3-0 shutout loss.

Hasami would be next on the docket for Nagasaki Nichidai.  Scrappy as they were they never led in the game, though after going down 5-1 in the bottom of the 9th they would rally for 3 runs of their own falling 5-4 and with it a chance to return to Koushien.

Souseikan and Seihou had a tight game.  After trading runs in the first two innings, things seemed to quiet down.  But as soon as the teams reached the 2nd half of the game, the offensive spigots opened wide.  After trading another pair of runs in the 6th, the lead with switch 4 times as each team scored one more run than the last.  Eventually Souseikan would score 2 in the 9th to tie the game up at 10.  And when Seihou failed to score in the bottom of the 9th, it was all over.  Souseikan tacked on 3 more in the 10th for the win and the other bid to the super-regionals.

Souseikan's late inning rallies wouldn't end there.  In the finals, down 4-1, they would start their rally again in the 6th.  They'd tie the game in the 7th, and when Nagasaki Nichidai scored 2 in the 8th, Souseikan scored 3 to take the lead and claim their first ever fall title.


Miyazaki
Was it really that weird to ask the stalls at Meiji Jingu for former Miyazaki Shougyou's ace Akagawa Katsuki?  Okay, kinda off topic, but a year after his appearance Miyakonojyou Shougyou's team would make it to the Best 8, falling to Chuukyoudai Chuukyou.

Teams from Miyazaki of late have been able to advance past the first round, but little further than that.  Who would be the ones to try this time around?

Well, last summer's representative Nichinan Gakuen made a strong case with a semifinal run that included 3 shutouts against St. Ursula and Hyuuga Gakuin.  Despite that though, Miyakonojyou Shougyou would rudely shut the door on a super-regional bid mercy ruling them 10-3 in 8 innings.

The other half of the quadrant had Nisshou Gakuen tiptoeing through their part winning games by the margin of 3-2, 3-1 and 1-0.  Their semifinal would not be against Miyakonojyou  Izumigaoka as expected, but Miyazaki Nishi who defeated them 3-2.  Furthermore, Miyazaki Nishi would end Nisshou Gakuen's run of low-scoring victories shutting them out 2-0 and guaranteeing themselves their first ever super-regional bid.

Miyazaki Nishi wasn't done though.  They made a run at Miyakonojyou Shougyou as well.  Holding a 1-0 lead since the first, they were 2 innings away from claiming their 1st ever fall title.  However, Miyakonokyou Shougyou would score 3 in the 8th giving them their 5th fall title and first in 5 years.


Kumamoto
Ask who are the strong teams in Kumamoto, and you'd probably get 2 responses - Kyushu Gakuin and Kumamoto Kougyou.  Of late though, some schools have been able to break through the duo including Jyouhoku and Senshuudai Tamana.  Others are still on the cusp of breaking through, but not yet - such as Luther Gakuin.

Kyushu Gakuin wanted to reaffirm their spot at the top of the prefecture, and though they were slowed down by Seiseikou and Kumamoto Shougyou, they handily defeated a Kuma Kougyou squad who surprised everyone by reaching the semifinals for a guaranteed spot.  Jyouhoku didn't get past the 2nd round, losing to the aforementioned Kumamoto Shougyou.

Meanwhile Luther Gakuin, Senshuudai Tamana and Kumamoto Kougyou were all in the same quadrant...  and they would eventually play each other.  First up was last year's summer representative Senshuudai Tamana versus Kumamoto Kougyou.  Kumamoto Kougyou won that easily 9-1.  Next up for them was Luther Gakuin.  So often Luther would fall short losing to teams like Kumamoto Kougyou.  This time though, they prevailed, outlasting them in a 5-4 win to advance to the semis.

Standing in their way to the super-regionals was Toukai Dai-ni, who had a fairly strong run of their own.  Yet, Luther Gakuin would jump out to a 4-0 lead and win by that same margin 6-2.

But while Luther Gakuin may have qualified for the super-regionals, Kyushu Gakuin decided to put them back in their place.  A 15-1 victory would give them their 19th fall prefectural title.


Kagoshima
If you thought breaking through a ceiling of 2 teams was bad, try 4.

Since 1989, Kagoshima's representatives that have made it to senbatsu have been one of 4 teams:
  • Kagoshima Kougyou
  • Kagoshima Jitsugyou
  • Kamimura Gakuen
  • Shounan (fka Kagoshima Shoukou)
It's one thing to have to avoid one team, or defeat one team.  Try possibly having to face 2, 3, or all 4 just to make it!

So really, it's only news when one of those teams goes down - sad to say.

Interestingly though, they weren't all split up.  Kagoshima Kougyou wound up in the same bracket as Shounan.  Instead one of the seeded spots went to the team that was not one of the aforementioned 4 to make it to Koushien - Kagoshima Shougyou.

Well, that was a mistake.  First game against Fukiage... they lose 4-1.  That left Reimei to carry the flag in the quadrant... except they lost in their first game too, 7-6 to Shouyou.  Shouyou would actually reach the semifinals... only to get railroaded by Kamimura Gakuen 16-2.

Okay, well... what about Shounan and Kagoshima Kougyou?  Well, Shounan actually lasted just one game before falling to unknown Makurazaki 2-1!

That's 2 teams down.

Kagoshima Kougyou would avenge Shounan's loss by defeating Makurazaki 7-0.  Yet even they weren't immune.  In the very next round, they too would be dispatched by Sendai (that's 川内 to you) 9-2.

Lastly, there was Kagoshima Jitsugyou.  Amazingly, they too lasted just 2 games, losing to Kagoshima 1-0!  That left Kamimura Gakuen as the only one of the quartet still standing!  Taking Kajitsu's place in the Best 4 would be Kagoshima Jyousai - certainly not a slouch, but not one of the Big 4 either.

And in the battle for the other super-regional spot, it would be Kagoshima Jyousai who would shutout Sendai 4-0.

So the finals are actually a rematch of last year's fall final - Kagoshima Jyousai v. Kamimura Gakuen.

And much like last year, Kamimura Gakuen wins again 4-1 for their 6th title.


Okinawa
Okinawa surprisingly has had a lot of success since the end of the last millennia.  Starting with Okinawa Shougaku winning the 1999 senbatsu, Okinawa has won 3 Haru Koushien titles, Urasoe Shougyou reached the Best 4, and Kounan achieved the Haru-Natsu renzoku yuushou.

Itoman and Kadena have carried the flag for the prefecture since Shimabukuro's departure for Chuo Daigaku, though Urasoe Shougyou and Okinawa Shougaku lie in wait as well.

This year though, Okinawa Shogaku would not participate.  Due to violence within the club, they withdrew from the tournament despite being given a seed.

Taking their place was Chinen.  Given the free pass over Okishou, they took it to the semifinals with a 6-5 win over Shuri.  There they would face Kadena, who had to defeat former participants such as Yaeyama Shoukou, and Okinawa Suisan.  Yet even those wouldn't be enough to defeat Chinen.  Chinen would grab a spot in the super-regionals with a 4-1 win.

On the other half, seeded Urasoe Shougyou unassumingly went about its business reaching the semifinals.  Itoman would be right there to meet them, having worked their way through the bracket and defeated seeded Mawashi 3-0.  In the semifinal, Itoman would prevail in a high scoring 8-6 game.

And interestingly, Itoman would manage to defeat Chinen 4-3 to claim their first ever fall title!


Super-Regionals
So with all prefectures accounted for, the draw for the super-regionals took place.  Kyushu Gakuin and Jiyuugaoka may have been placed in the same quadrant, but there was no noticeable competition in the adjacent quadrant (Oita Kagaku Gijyutsu, Chinen, Souseikan, Ryuukoku... really?), thereby almost guaranteeing one of them a spot at senbatsu. 

Meanwhile, Kamimura Gakuen probably will face their toughest test should Nagasaki Nichidai defeat Oomuta (which they should).  Outside of that though, they should breeze through to the semifinals.

Finally, the last quadrant is actually a pretty tough one.  Itoman and Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou would have to square off, then possibly face Miyakonojyou Shougyou or perhaps Luther Gakuin.

As the tournament kicked off, the first shock was that Oomuta and Nagasaki Nichidai wound up playing to a 2-2 draw!  That meant they'd have to play again, and while Nagasaki Nichidai won the rematch 7-2, playing an extra game certainly couldn't have helped them.

The second was that Luther Gakuin, despite finally making it to the super-regionals, was dispatched by Beppu Aoyama 4-1!  I certainly didn't see that one coming.

The surprises kept on coming.  2nd round action saw Jiyuugaoka having to force extra innings against Miyazaki Nishi, only to lose 5-4 in the 11th!  Next was the Ryuukoku-Souseikan game which saw both teams go the full 15 before Souseikan would win 2-1 in the last half-inning!  And Beppu Aoyama continued to shock the field scoring the first 6 runs in an 11-6 win over Miyakonojyou Shougyou!

Onto the quarterfinals and Kyushu Gakuin finally got a challenge, but it was from Miyazaki Nishi!  Kyushu Gakuin would win 2-0, but it was a strong showing from a Miyazaki Nishi squad who was probably not expected to even be here.

Even more teams would struggle.  Kamimura Gakuen, perhaps one of the shoe-ins to head to senbatsu actually trailed against Oita!  First in the 3rd at 3-0, then in the 8th at 6-5.  Both times though they were immediately able to rally back and take the lead - perhaps showing a bit of maturity.  However, give credit to Oita for giving one of the stronger teams in the region a run for their money.

Still, Oita's game pales in comparison to Beppu Aoyama.  Facing yet another strong team in Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou, they don't let a 1-run deficit deter them.  They score 2 in the 6th to take a 3-2 lead!  And the trio of Nakamura-Yasuo-Ishida shut the door on the game almost giving the committee no reason not to invite them to senbatsu!

To the semis and Souseikan's run now would get much tougher against Kyushu Gakuin.  So much so they would be mercy ruled 9-0 in 7 innings.

As for Beppu Aoyama, they certainly had a great run, but it would not be able to continue against Kamimura Gakuen.  Though they held them scoreless the first 4 innings, eventually Kamimura broke through with 4 in the 5th en route to a 6-2 win.

Kamimura Gakuen would finally put their stamp on the region in the finals, scoring 8 runs in the first inning against Kyushu Gakuin to claim their first ever (!!) super-regional title, and an automatic invitation to Haru Koushien!

And despite Souseikan's bad loss in the quarterfinals, I expect the Best 4 to receive a phone call come January.

Automatic Bid - Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 3 years
Projected Bid - Kyushu Gakuin (Kumamoto) - 5th appearance, 2nd consecutive
Projected Bid - Souseikan (Nagasaki) - 1st appearance
Projected Bid - Beppu Aoyama (Oita) - 1st appearance

Fall Tournament Recap and possible invitees (Chuugoku & Shikoku)

In the interests of getting my projections out before the invitations are posted I am including them here before they are announced.  (The reviews are finally up.)

Chuugoku Super-Regionals (2 bids + 1 floating bid w/Shikoku)
Chuugoku with 5 prefectures award an extra bid to the super-regionals to the host prefecure.  This year, that is Hiroshima.  So all Best 4 teams will advance perhaps releasing a bit of the pressure.  Let's start there:

Hiroshima
Hiroshima you wouldn't think would have the history of a rural prefecture such as say Nara, but with a couple of rare few exceptions it's been dominated by two schools - Jyosuikan and Kouryou, whileother schools like Onomichi and last year's senbatsu representative Hiroshima Sougou Gijyutsu look up through the ceiling.

Not a surprise then that all 4 made it out of small pool play into the prefecturals.  It also wasn't a surprise when HSG lost in the 3rd round to Hiroshima Kougyou.

It was a surprise though when Kouryou also lost in the 3rd round to 2000 Natsu representative Setouchi 8-5.

With Jyosuikan's main opponent eliminated, Jyosuikan looked to be the front-runner.  And while they struggled against Hiroshima Shinjyou 8-6 in the quarterfinals, they blew out Hiroshima Kanon 19-1!

On the other side, Onomichi took advantage of the Kouryou upset.  They made it to the finals with a defeat of Hiroshima Shougyou 10-5.  Hiroshou is interesting in that they have a pitcher by the name of Insencio Wilson.  I can't find a whole lot about him though

Doesn't matter though as Hiroshima Shougyou and Hiroshima Kanon would advance to the super-regionals.  For the record though, Wilson gives Hiroshou the 5-3 win in the consolation game.

As for Onomichi and Jyosuikan, the title would once again escape Onomichi as ace Okita would give up 4 in the 3rd which would be more than enough.


Tottori
Tottori has been in a bit of a drought in recent years, having only 1 win in the last 15 years in the Natsu Koushien tournament, and one senbatsu appearance in the last 25!

And in more recent years, the head of the table has been passed around annually it seems.

I suppose if you look at the last couple of winners, you'd be looking at Tottori Shougyou, Yasu (who had that lone win), and last year's fall winner Tottori Ikuei.

The first two were in one quadrant while Tottori Ikuei was on the other quadrant in their half.  Sure enough, the two faced off in the quarterfinals, and Yasu advanced with an 8-3 win.  Next up would be Tottori Ikuei, and they came up with 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th for the 2-1 comeback win!  That would force Yasu into a loser out game.

Meanwhile, Tottori Jyouhoku (2009 Natsu representative) had no trouble at all, yielding all 3 of their runs in the run-up to 1st round opponent Yonago ShouinYonago Tousen would have to fight for their spot in the super-regionals after losing 5-0 in the semis.

Yet against Tottori Ikuei, they stumbled.  After scoring the first run, Tottori Ikuei would score 2 in the bottom of the 1st and 2 more in the 4th.  Tottori would take their 2nd consecutive title (and 2nd overall!) with a 5-1 win!

Yasu would be the prefecture's 3rd representative with an 8-3 win against Yonago Tousen.


Okayama
Kanzei's run this past summer shocked me, not sure it shocked others.  Though they didn't win, I hoped it would be a re-emergence of the school in the prefecture.

And though they advanced out of pool play, they weren't as imposing as before.  Worse yet, they drew Kurashiki Shougyou, the other recent Natsu Koushien representative in the very first round.


Unlike Kanzei's games at Koushien, this was a high scoring affair, one that they would lose 11-7. With their main rival gone, Kurashiki Shougyou became the overwhelming favorite to win the prefecture.  Indeed they easily won their next 2 games to reach the finals.

On the other half, the games were much more tempered.  Konkou Gakuen reaches the semis with just a 2-1 and 1-0 win.  Meanwhile, Tamano Kounan defeats 2007 representative Okayama Ridai Fuzoku 5-2 and Koujyoukan 2-1.

After trading a run in the 1st, a 3-spot for Tamano Kounan would be the winning margin as they advanced to the finals with a 4-1 win.

With such lackluster performances, Kurashiki Shougyou seemed poised to take the title.

Except no one gave Tamano Kounan the memo.  They broke out to an 8-0 lead and never looked back, taking their 3rd ever fall title (1st in 8 years)!  Joining the pair would be Okayama Kyousei who sent Konkou Gakuen home 9-6.


Shimane
With twin giants Shirane and Mori graduating from Kaisei, it would leave a void in the prefecture.  Before Kaisei, it was famed Risshoudai Shounan in 2009, and in the spring Oki back in 2003.  Indeed, Kaisei would lose their very first game 8-6 to Daitou.

Well, some of the better teams in the past included Iwamichisuikan, Taisha and last fall's winner Matsue Shougyou.  All 3 (as well as Risshoudai Shounan) advanced out of regional play, though Matsue Shougyou faced fellow Best 4 from last year Izumo and won 6-5.

In the 2nd stage, Risshoudai Shounan was next to fall, losing to Mitoya in the first round 12-11.  They in turn were blasted by Iwamichisuikan 10-3.  Taisha barely got away against Izumo Nishi 7-6 and advanced to the best 4 with a win over Oota.

Matsue Shougyou would not be joining them as they lost 7-0 to Yasugi in the first round as well.  Instead, Matsue Minami and Hamada would be joining them in the semifinals.

The semifinal draw had the two favorites facing each other, meaning that in all likelihood the winner of the Hamada-Matsue Minami game would be the one advancing.

In that crucial semifinal, Matsue Minami took a 3-0 lead early.  However, they would not be able to hold it.  Just 6 outs away from guaranteeing themselves a bid, they give up 5 unanswered runs.  They managed to scrounge up a run in the 9th, but it would not be enough - essentially sealing their fate.

Taisha would finally have a chance at a title as they ran away with a 5-1 win over Iwamichisuikan.  And they would finally get their first title in 20 years, shutting out Hamada 5-0 for their 6th fall title.  Iwamichisuikan took the 3rd bid with a 10-2 win over Matsue Minami.


Yamaguchi
Surprisingly, despite sharing the same super-regional with prefectures such as Hiroshima and Okayama, Yamaguchi sent 9 representatives to senbatsu in the aughties.  Not a bad track record.

The 2010's though have not proven to be as kind,  not yet anyways.

But despite the good track records in the fall super-regionals, the prefecture really hasn't had any school stand out.  Perhaps Nanyou Kougyou or Shimonoseki Shougyou, but it's hard to really say.

In pool play, Nanyou Kougyou did advance, though not without some tough games against Takagawa Gakuen and Iwakuni.  Shimonoseki Shougyou did not fare as well losing 5-3 in the regional final to Shimonoseki Chuo Kougyou.

Without a clear picture of the prefecture, it was up for grabs.  On one side, it was Hayatomo that clinched one bid shutting out Yamaguchi Koujyou 5-0.  The other guaranteed bid did not go to Nanyou Kougyou, but to Iwakuni Kougyou instead as they scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th for a gyakuten 4-3 win!

So we had two teams that may not have been expecting a title playing for one.  And in the early going, it was a close game, though Hayatomo built a 2-0 lead.  Iwakuni Kougyou scored 2 in the 5th to tie the game.

Sadly, after that, they would fall apart as Hayatomo scored 8 unanswered runs to take their 1st title in 45 years (and 3rd overall) with a 10-3 win!

Nanyou Kougyou had no trouble securing the final bid with a 7-1 win over Yamaguchi Koujyou.


Super-Regionals
Looking at the field as a whole, it seemed rather... lackluster.  Sure, you had teams such as Jyosuikan, Kurashiki Shougyou and perhaps Nanyou Kougyou.  But behind those teams, it felt like there was a severe dropoff.

Worse yet, Kurashiki Shouyou and Jyosuikan drew each other in the first round!  It'd be clear the winner of that game had a route to at least the semifinals.  The only other teams perhaps standing in their way would be either the aforementioned Nanyou Kougyou or perhaps Yasu.

On the other side, you might as well roll dice.  There was no clear favorite.  Maybe you could say Taisha, maybe Onomichi could surprise, but really, you could pull names out of a hat and be just as accurate.

So first we go back to the key matchup - Kurashiki Shougyou-Jyosuikan.  The game swung early as a 3-0 lead for Kurashiki Shougyou evaporated in the 3rd.  Trailing 4-3 in the 9th, they score 4 for a 7-5 gyakuten win.  Coupled with a 4-1 win over Hamada, and they had their Best 4 appearance.

But it wouldn't be against Nanyou Kougyou.  In fact, it would be against unknown Hayatomo!  They not only mercy ruled Yasu 7-0, but then defeated Nanyou Kougyou 3-1!

One bad inning though would derail Hayatomo's run.  Perhaps facing one of the more important games of their school's history, ace Aidzu would give up 5 runs in the 1st inning.  They would fight, but never recover, falling 6-3.

On the other side, teams started shaking themselves out.  Tottori Jyouhoku and Taisha advanced with easy wins, Onomichi shutout Iwamichisuikan, and Iwakuni Kougyou outlasted Okayama Kyousei.  Then in the quarters, Onomichi would be unceremoniously removed with a 9-1 loss to Taisha, while Tottori Jyouhoku just edged out Iwakuni Kougyou 2-1.

Perhaps this would be the time that Taisha, a team who has waited to break through would finally do so.  That would not the be the case though.  Tottori Jyouhoku would mercy rule them in the semifinals 7-0.

That put two eastern teams in the region in the finals.  A regular in Kurashiki Shougyou, and a Tottori Jyouhoku team that made their one and only appearance 3 years ago.

Kurashiki Shougyou's ace Nishi though would give up a 4-spot in the 2nd, and they suddenly were in trouble.  In fact, Tottori Jyouhoku's ace Nishisaka would only give up 1 run in a CG win giving his team their first ever fall title, and their first ever senbatsu apperance!


Automatic Bid - Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori) - 1st appearance
Projected Bid - Kurashiki Shougyou (Okayama) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 22 years


Shikoku Super-Regionals (2 bids + 1 floating bid w/Chuugoku)
With 4 prefectures occupying this region, each prefecture sends 3 representatives with the winners needing just 3 games to win the super-regionals.

Kagawa
Kagawa has seen the good times pass it by it seems.  Despite having a winning record in both Haru and Natsu Koushien tournaments, the majority of that happened decades ago.  Recently, they have struggled to advance out of the 1st round.  Eimei has made 2 consecutive runs at it in the summer, but it's possible their time is now up.

Meanwhile, teams such as Takamatsu Shougyou, Akiyama's former team Sangawa, and Kanonji Chuo look to restore respectability to the prefecture.

But perhaps showing that there still is a long way to go, almost all those teams struggled in the tournament.  Takamatsu Shougyou's games to the semis was won by no greater than 3 runs.  Kanonji Chuo had two close games before finally getting an easy win against Takamatsu Sakurai.

Sangawa and Eimei had a bit of an easier time... that is until they faced each other in the quarterfinals.  Sangawa had the better of the matchup, but just, in a 6-5 win.  Rounding out the best 4 was Sanbonmatsu who had survived some close games.

Kanonji Chuo almost seemed to exercise their demons against Takamatsu Shougyou leading 3-1 in the 9th.  However, Takashou would break their hearts yet again, scoring 4 in the 9th for the 5-3 win.  Sanbonmatsu's run would end at Sangawa's hands as they lost 5-1.

In the finals, Takashou's ace Tanigawa would give up just 2 hits (though he walked 9), in a 2-0 shutout of Sangawa giving his team their 25th fall title (last was in 2008).  Kanonji Chuo would take the last spot with a 7-0 win over Sanbonmatsu.


Tokushima
Tokushima also has had a winning record at Koushien.  Of late, the 2 teams who have had the most success are Tokushima Shougyou and Naruto Kougyou.  Famed Ikeda last had success in the early 90's but has faded out of the picture in recent years.

Tokushima Shougyou bowed out in the 2nd round to Kawashima.  Ikeda and Naruto Kougyou were in the same quadrant and wound up facing each other in the quarterfinals.  Ikeda's struggles continued as they were routed 9-1.

Joining those two in the best 4 would be Tokushima Kita - who needed 2 1-run victories, and Naruto - who outscored their opponents 40-8.  However, they didn't really face anyone of note, so it's possible that offense is just a mirage.

They'd have to prove that against Naruto Kougyou though.  As for Kawashima and Tokushima Kita, it appeared that they'd have to win to get in.

The game would be one to remember.  Kawashima's ace Satou would throw a no-hitter against Tokushima Kita.  Irregardless of what happens after, that's a moment they're going to remember.  Better yet, it would give them their 2nd ever super-regional appearance (their 1st was just 2 years ago).

Their opponent in the final would indeed be Naruto.  Scoring 4 in the 3rd, they'd never look back.  Naruto Kougyou would fight back against starter Goutouda, but fall short 7-5.

Riding the wave of the no-hitter, Satou would continue his assault on the Naruto batters, throwing 7 more shutout innings.  But the tank would finally run empty, surrendering 3 in the 8th.  Meanwhile, ace Kobayashi would quiet the Kawashima bats limiting them to just 1 run.  Naruto would win their 11th title, but their 1st in 18 years.  Tokushima Kita couldn't recover from the no-hitter, losing 3-1.


Ehime
Ehime continues the trend of winning prefectures.  They enjoyed success in the early aughites, but in the last several have receded a bit.  Teams such as Saibi, Kawanoe and Matsuyama Shougyou dominated the times.  But perhaps it's Imabari Nishi who has dominated the scene recently, especially in the fall tournaments, that would continue to reign.

Exiting out of pool play, it would be Imabari Nishi, along with Saibi, 2010 Natsu representative Uwajima Higashi, and Komatsu who would get favorable draws.

And yet, they didn't have an easy time.  In fact, Saibi would fall before reaching the semifinals, losing 5-3 to Kawanoishi.  For the remaining teams, only Uwajima Higashi had a margin of victory over 3.

The party crashers also had their sights on Imabari Nishi in the semis.  Scoring 3 against starter Ishigaki, it looked perhaps that they might have a chance.  But Imabari would equalize in the 5th, and score the go-ahead run on ace Yano in the 8th inning.  Kawanoishi would have to qualify in the 3rd place game after the 4-3 loss.

Komatsu and Uwajima Higashi would have their own struggle.  Tied at 1 going into the 9th, Komatsu would score the go-ahead run.  But Uwajima Higashi had their half, and managed to score one of their own, sending it to enchousen.  It would only last 2 innings though, when Komatsu would emphatically stamp their ticket to the finals with 4 runs.

In the finals, Imabari Nishi would fall behind yet again as Komatsu would score 5 unanswered runs.  This time around though, ace Nakano would not give them the opportunity to rally back as he would give up 2 runs giving his team their first ever fall title and first ever super-regional apperance!

And as for Kawanoishi, their party crashing would be over as they lost 10-3 to Uwajima Higashi in the 3rd place game.

Kochi
No one beats Kochi though in terms of success.  They have a 0.615 winning percentage at Koushien.  Furthermore, since 1993 they have failed to send a representative in senbatsu just 3 times.

Most of the time, the representative has been either Kochi, Kochi Shougyou, or Meitoku Gijyuku.  Break though those three, and you've achieved something.

And so we start the Kochi prefecturals.  The aforementioned trio, along with Tosa, were the seeded teams.  Tosa represented Kochi back in the 1993 senbatsu, though they lost to Tohoku.

So it's no surprise that all 4 teams (yes, even Tosa) made the Best 4.  Kochi though, almost got upended in the first round with a 6-5 win over Ootemae.  Even with that, the big 3 gave up 10 runs in their 9 combined games.  Tosa gave up 7 in their 3.

In the semis, Kochi wound up throwing 3 pitchers at Meitoku Gijyuku to no avail.  They'd fall 4-1.

Tosa would have to win their game against Kochi Shougyou.  Losing here means having to win the 3rd place game.  But they would have no such luck.  Kochishou would beat them 7-1.

That would seal Tosa's fate.  Having to face Kochi in the 3rd place game, they folded 9-0 and would have to wait until next summer for another shot.

Kochi Shougyou would then have to face Meitoku Gijyuku for the title and the 1st round bye.  However, Meitoku Gijyuku takes their seat again at the head of the prefecture with their own 7-1 win.  Despite this being their 6th straight super-regional appearance, this was their first title in 4 years (and 15th overall).


Super-Regionals
Each of the winners (Meitoku Gijyuku, Komatsu, Naruto, and Tokushima Shougyou) would earn a bye, while the other teams slugged it out.  Once under way, only Naruto had an easy go of it.  Takamatsu Shougyou had to face Naruto Kougyou and won 1-0.  Meitoku Gijyuku survived 4-3 over Uwajima Higashi.  Komatsu?  Sadly, their run ended against Kochi 6-0.

Kochi would continue their run, exacting revenge on ace Ogata, scoring 3 in the 9th for a 7-4 win and a probable bid to senbatsu.  Naruto would join them as they continued their rampage with a 7-1over Tokushima Shougyou.

The question then would be who would get the automatic bid.  In all likelihood, Kochi's name will give them a bid, and Naruto's high powered offense would be something to see at Koushien.  But it never hurts to guarantee that phone call.

Once again, Naruto would come out firing and getting a 3-1 lead.  And though Kitashiro would tie the game in the 4th, Naruto took the lead back 4-3 in the 5th.  Kochi would just not go away, tying the game in the 9th.  And just when you'd think Naruto would fold, they didn't as Hinoshita would give his team their first super-regional title in 42 years with a bases loaded hit to right.

Automatic Bid - Naruto (Tokushima) - 7th appearance, 1st in 32 years
Projected Bid - Kochi (Kochi) - 16th appearance, 1st in 2 years

Fall Tournament Recap and possible invitees (Kinki)

The Kinki region is so big, and with 6 bids at stake, probably deserve their own post (though I'll be having to blow through these to get the rest of the recaps done)

Kinki Super-Regional (6 bids)
With 16 teams going to the super-regional, the prefectures rotate the extra 4 bids amongst themselves.  This year Kyoto and Wakayama would be short-changed with just 2 bids.

Shiga
Shiga had some excitement last summer when Hachiman Shougyou shocked Teikyou with 5 runs in the top of the 9th for an unbelievable upset.

Sadly though, they may have been a one-hit wonder (no pun intended).  They'd lose in their 1st game 6-4 to Hino.

Looking elsewhere, Cinderella Shiga Gakuen looked to make another run and had the entire half to themselves once Hachiman Shougyou was eliminated.  But Yasu spoiled the party defeating them 2-0 in the quarterfinals.  They were one win away from a guaranteed spot in the super-regionals, but Minakuchi proved to be a more than formidable opponent.  Tied at 1 in the 4th inning, the game would head into extras.  But in the 11th, Minakuchi's Ikemoto would deliver the sayonara hit to punch their first ticket in 44 years to the super-regionals.

The two stalwarts in the prefecture - Oumi and Kita-Ootsu occupied the other half of the bracket.  But when Kita-Ootsu lost to Ishiyama in their very first game 3-2, the path to the super-regionals was wide open.  They didn't hesitate, defeating Ishiyama in the semifinals 14-4 to punch their ticket.

Minakuchi actually put up a good fight early against heavily favored Oumi, taking a 2-run lead.  Oumi wiped that completely out with a 3-run 4th and would go on to win 7-2 for their 9th title and 1st in 2 years.

Yasu's good run would be spoiled by Ishiyama, who deservingly earned a spot in the super-regionals with a 2-1 victory in the 3rd place game.

Kyoto
Kyoto has been largely dominated by the 5-kanji schools - Ryuukokudai Heian (龍谷大平安), Fukuchiyama Seibi (福知山成美), and Kyoto Gaidai Nishi (京都外大西).

But while all 3 qualified for the prefectural finals, all 3 were eliminated in quarterfinal play.  Fukuchiyama Seibi falls 8-6 to Toba, Ryuukokudai Heian lost a close one 8-7 to Ritsumeikan, and Kyoto Gaidai Nishi had the worst loss (deficit-wise anyways), 6-2 to Kyoto RyouyouKyoto Shouei joins the three in the semifinals.

Now, with only 2 spots available this year, winning the semifinals becomes crucial.  Toba grabs one of the two spots after breaking a 3-3 tie with Kyoto Shouei with 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th.  Ritsumeikan takes the other one as ace Itou limits Kyoto Ryouyou to just 1 run in a 2-1 win.

The final was a bit nuts.  Despite being the underdog, Toba breached the 0-0 deadlock with a run in the 6th.  Such a slim margin would be hard to maintain against a team such as Ritsumeikan, and indeed in the 8th they scored 3 to take the lead.  But in the bottom of the 9th, Toba found a way to take back every single run to win their 3rd fall title (1st in 11 years), 4-3!

Nara
Chiben Gakuen has supplanted Tenri as the premier team in the prefecture.  That after Tenri has frittered away opportunity after opportunity at Koushien.

The teams though were on the same half, so you were almost guaranteed that one would take the title, and the other the 3rd place spot.  So any team on that half would have little to no shot to make it.  Go to the other side and if Kooriyama could be knocked off, Nara's 2nd seed could be up for grabs.

Chiben Gakuen would get the best of the rivalry yet again and in impressive fashion.  Tenri would be relegated to the 3rd place match with an 8-0 mercy rule loss.

The de facto final qualifying spot would go to Naradai Fuzoku.  After relinquishing an early 3-0 lead to Ichijyou, they rallied in the late innings to win 6-5.

But Naradai Fuzoku wasn't done!  After giving up 2 runs in the 1st to Chiben, they immediately struck back with 4 runs Chiben would narrow the lead to 1 and keep it that way until the 8th when they successfully pulled level at 6.

Naradai Fuzoku would claim their first ever fall title in spectacular fashion as Kudou delivers a sayonara hit to right, winning 7-6!

Wakayama
Wakayama too would only get 2 bids, but assuming that Chiben Wakayama and Kouyou were on opposite sides of the Best 4, there may be no room for anyone else, save for maybe Minabe or Minoshima.

So apparently, Wakayama has changed their qualifying methods.  Instead of grandfathering in the Best 4 from last year's they now hold a "newcomers tournament" (高校野球新人戦) right after Natsu Koushien ends, in which the best 4 from that tournament get a pass to the Best 8 of the fall prefecturals.  The rest would have to play again in pool play for a spot.

The 4 teams that got a free pass were Naga, Touin, Kainan and of course Chiben Wakayama.

So the remaining 36 teams were in for another grueling single elimination bracket less than 3 weeks later.

Those that were able to endure the 2nd go around were Shiritsu Wakayama (who shut out Minabe 4-0 in the block final), Kokawa (who ended Kouyou's bid with a 2-1 victory), Kenritsu Wakayama Shougyou, and Minoshima.

Chiben Wakayama and Minoshima wound up on different sides of the bracket, so it seemed likely they would be the two entrants.

Nope.

Minoshima bowed out in the very first game 3-2 to Kainan who would eventually reach the finals after a win against Touin.  Chiben Wakayama, after barely beating out Shiritsu Wakayama 4-3, was blitzed by Naga to the tune of 8-1!

So it would be a newcomer in Naga, and a forgotten team (last appearance 26 years ago) in Kainan.  The question would be who would take the coveted title.  Both aces, Kusunoki and Fukui respectively, would be in a pitcher's duel.  Naga would claim their first ever fall title with a 1-0 win.

Osaka
Osaka's tourney is basically one bracket, save for a redraw in the best 4.

Block A was dominated by Riseisha.  Block B was won by Natsu representative Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara thanks in part to Toukaidai Gyousei eliminating PL Gakuen 7-0 in the first round and a 3-1 win over Osaka Sangyoudai FuzokuOsaka Taiikudai Nami Shougyou (aka Daitoudai Namishou) took Block C after escaping with a 4-3 win over Kansai Souka.  Finally, Osaka Touin blew through most of Block D though Osaka Shoudai Sakai did limit them to 3 runs in a 3-0 loss.

The semifinal draw had Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara looking to prove their trip last summer wasn't a fluke with a 5-1 over Riseisha.  Meanwhile, Osaka Touin looked to regain the top spot in Osaka with a 8-3 win over Daitoudai Namishou.

Eventually, Osaka Touin would reassert themselves with a 6-0 shutout win over the summer representatives for their 3rd consecutive and 5th overall fall title.

Joining the pair would be Riseisha as they denied Daitoudai Namisho with a 5-1 win in the consolation game.

Hyogo
Hooray!  Nishinomiya Kita made it to the prefecturals after qualifying through the repechage of the Nishi-Hanshin regionals 2-0 against Takaradzuka Kita!  By the way, Kansei Gakuin would take top honors in that regional.  Yay for improvement!

Joining that pair of teams would be the likes of Houtoku Gakuen, Shinkou Gakuen, Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku, and Kakogawa KitaTouyoudai Himeji immediately got a free pass to the prefecturals being the Natsu Koushien representative.

The prefectural draw had Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku in their own quadrant.  But Sumoto wrecked the party, eliminating them 13-6 in the round of 16 and taking their spot in the Best 4.  Houtoku Gakuen, Kakogawa Kita and Touyoudai Himeji were in the other quadrant.  And despite the offensive output shown early in the brackets, Touyoudai Himeji's offense would go astray against tougher competition.  Houtoku blanked them 5-0 for a spot opposite Sumoto.

Nishinomiya Kita's time in the prefecturals was cut short in a 5-1 loss to Awaji in the 1st round.  Awaji would actually make a deep run before being offed by Ikuei 7-1 in the quarterfinals.  So I guess it wasn't a bad loss for the fightin' Haruhi's.  Maybe this summer?  (No.  Probably not.)

Rounding out the field would be Kansei Gakuin, who continues to have a penchant for low-scoring close affairs.  Their largest margin of victory?  2.

Despite Sumoto's upset, they were no match for battle-tested Houtoku Gakuen as there were shutout to the tune of 6-0.  On the other side, Kansei Gakuin and Ikuei would trade blows in the latter half of the games.  Ikuei was actually 3 outs from advancing, but Kansei would tie the game with a clutch run.  Ikuei tried once again to leave Kansei behind with a point in the 13th, but Kansei wound up doing one better, bidding Ikuei sayonara 6-5!

That extra inning game may have taken the air out of Kansei as in the final they could only muster 1 run as Houtoku Gakuen would go on to win 3-1 and claim their 10th title (1st in 3 years).  Ikuei would be the final qualifier taking their frustrations in losing out on Sumoto 9-2.

Super-Regionals
The draw for the super-regionals put a lot of the strong teams in 1 quadrant.

On the upper left, the winner of the Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo 1) v. Riseisha (Osaka 3) would definitely reach the semifinals and a projected bid to Koushien.  Same goes to the Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara (Osaka 2) v. Chiben Gakuen (Nara 2) matchup in the lower left.

The upper right was the hell draw.  Tenri (Nara 3) v. Ritsumeikan (Kyoto 2) and Osaka Touin (Osaka 1) v. Kansei Gakuin (Hyogo 2).  Oumi's (Shiga 1) only competition would be Ikuei (Hyogo 3) in their first game.  Win that and they're pretty much guaranteed a bid.

Riseisha allowed 2 runs in junk time as they eliminated Houtoku Gakuen 9-2 and had a quick 6 inning affair against Minokuchi.  Meanwhile Chiben Gakuen may be taking the flag even from Chiben Wakayama when comparing the two schools as they blank Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara 5-0 and they advance to the semis.

Tenri once again struggled in the big lights, going into extras but defeating Ritsumeikan 3-1 in 10.  They'd have a familiar opponent as Kansei Gakuin couldn't keep up with Osaka Touin's offensive output lasting just 7 innings in a 9-0 loss.  Tenri though was able to take advantage over Touin's eternal weakness - pitching depth as a 4-spot in the 7th proved to be the final margin of victory 8-4.

And lastly, Oumi almost squandered a 6 run lead in the 9th, but won 7-5, then got a strong challenge against a surprisingly strong Naradai Fuzoku squad 2-1.

So all 4 teams were likely to receive a bid.  Question would be who would definitely get an invite.  Chiben Gakuen's Ono would give up a run to open the game, but the team would come back to take the lead and never trail again winning 4-2.  And it would be a grudge match final as Tenri dispatched Oumi 11-1 in 6.

In that grudge match, Chiben Gakuen emphatically put their stamp on the title with a 3-run 1st.  And as to add insult to injury, despite Tenri scoring 3 in the 8th to pull within 1, Chiben Gakuen would win their first ever super-regional title not having used their ace Aoyama in the semifinal nor championship game!

Automatic Bid - Chiben Gakuen (Nara) - 8th appearance, 1st in 11 years
Projected Bid - Tenri (Nara) - 22nd appearance, 4th consecutive
Projected Bid - Riseisha (Osaka) - 4th appearance, 2nd consecutive
Projected Bid - Oumi (Shiga) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 9 years
Projected Bid - Osaka Touin (Osaka) - 5th appearance, 1st in 2 years
Projected Bid - Toba (Kyoto) - 4th appearance, 1st in 7 years

The 5th and 6th bids are best guesses.  I doubt Minakuchi will earn a bid after losing 15-3 to Riseisha.  And as much as Naradai Fuzoku may have earned a bid with a 2-1 loss to Oumi, (a) I doubt the committee will award 3 Nara teams a bid, and (b) Oumi went on to lose to Osaka Touin 11-1.