Wednesday, December 18, 2013

On the new posting system and how it could affect potential prospects

So as many of you who are reading this post probably know, the NPB and MLB forged a new agreement on the posting system for Japanese players not eligible for International FA.

The main point that most of the NPB fans decry about is the fact that the posting fee has been capped at $20 million - supposedly under the guise of allowing small-market clubs the ability to go after the top NPB players.

Now, this would appear to be true.  With just a fee of $20 million, more ball clubs should be able to meet with the player and possibly get a contract done.

However, this is obviously a big hit to the NPB clubs themselves, who directly benefit from the posting fee.  It's also widely known that the Rakuten Eagles are not keen on posting Tanaka Masahiro if they can only get $20 million when just a couple of years ago, the Nippon Ham Fighters got $52 million for Darvish Yuu.

And therein lies the rub. NPB teams looking to post their superstars now will only get a pittance compared to the old system.  If that is the case, why would a NPB team be open to posting anyone - especially their better players knowing that they will only get $20 million?

They won't.  Which means that players might have to wait until getting their International FA to leave for the US.  But by that time they're past their supposed prime and might not get the big contract they would have if they left earlier.

Which then begs the question.  What's the chances now that a player from HS or college decides to forego the NPB draft and go directly to the MLB minors?

I've mentioned this before - we've had 2 HS players consider hard about going to the US.  Both wound up staying and becoming the #1 pick and max money - and will probably continue to do so as long as they perform much like Ma-kun.  But now, pending a change, they will probably have to wait 10 years before having a chance at the majors.  That being said, would they ever become comfortable enough to stake a claim in the low-cost minors?

Now look at college graduates who go to the draft, someone like Nomura Yuusuke who probably has a good career ahead of him, may not gain International FA until he passes age 30.

In other words, this new posting system could affect future drafts.

For college players, if they want to go to the US sooner, they may end up being more inclined to skip the NPB draft and sign with a US team.  For HS students, unless they decide that possibly waiting 10 years is worth it, they may also go to the US early.  Or, perhaps they go to college to polish their skills then head to the US.  If you are a top-level prospect, this may be the decision that they have to face - and it may be a decision that at perhaps one side foresaw coming.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Projected 86th Haru Koushien Field

Here is my projected field for the 86th Haru Koushien. The 21st century representatives are merely a guess given that the selection committee does not award based upon actual baseball merit.

Hokkaido (1)
  • Komadai Tomakomai
Tohoku (2)
  • Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Aomori)
  • Touryou (Miyagi)
There could theoretically be a case made for Hanamaki Higashi (Iwate), but after the questionable tactics used at Natsu Koushien, I do not expect the JHBF to pick them over the runner-up.

Kanto ex Tokyo (4 + floating bid shared w/Tokyo)
  • Hakuoudai Ashikaga (Tochigi)
  • Kiryuu Dai-ichi (Gunma
  • Yamanashi Gakuindai Fuzoku (Yamanashi)
  • Sano Nichidai (Tochigi)
The semifinal losers probably will get in considering Yamanashi Gakuindai defeated Kendai Takasaki and Sano Nichidai defeated Yokohama. If any of the quarterfinal losers want to get in at this point, probably the only chance is for Tokyo to win the Meiji Jingu tournament pushing the floating bid back to Kanto or for Hakuoudai Ashikaga to win it themselves.

Tokyo (1+ floating bid shared w/Kanto ex Tokyo)
  • Kanto Dai-ichi
  • Nisshougakushadai Fuzoku
Nisshougakushadai Fuzoku took Kanto Dai-ichi to 10 innings and made them put in ace Abe into the game to stop the bleeding.  They're not a fluke and they will be going on as the floating bid.

Hokushinetsu (2)
  • Nihon Bunri (Niigata)
  • Toukai Dai-san (Nagano)
Toukai Dai-san had quality games against both Niigata Meikun and Nihon Bunri, resume of semifinal losers not strong enough to warrant skipping Toukai Dai-san.

Tokai (2)
  • Mie (Mie)
  • Toyokawa (Aichi)
This is all but a certainty now that Toyokawa was 6 outs away from defeating Mie for the title.

Kinki (6)
  • Ryuukokudai Heian (Kyoto)
  • Chiben Wakayama (Wakayama)
  • Riseisha (Osaka)
  • Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo)
  • Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
  • Fukuchiyama Seibi (Kyoto)
  • Sanda Shousei (Hyogo)
Ryuukokudai Heian claims the title after defeating Chiben Wakayama 6-4. The top 4 should get an invite regardless of how the games played out.

Chiben Gakuen's spot is almost guaranteed now too considering they played Heian to a 1-0 loss. Fukuchiyama Seibi was the only other close quarterfinal game and they may just default into the last spot. Sanda Shousei would the the only team to challenge Fukuchiyama Seibi for the last spot, and that is because they played Riseisha fairly close despite the shutout, and Riseisha looked better in the semifinals. But that is a bit of a stretch.

Chuugoku (2 + floating bid w/Shikoku)
  • Iwakuni (Yamaguchi)
  • Hiroshima Shinjyou (Hiroshima)
Iwakuni claims just their 2nd super-regional title, and will take its place at Meiji Jingu and Koushien. Hiroshima Shinjyou put up a late rally and too should get a phone call.

The next team in line will be Takagawa Gakuen. However, their chance at being the floating bid has all but disappeared given that Kurashiki Shougyou was white-washed in the semifinals - thus highlighting the weak Okayama prefecture that they played against. Their only chance is if Imabari Nishi wins the Meiji Jingu tournament pushing the floating bid back to the Chuugoku region.

Shikoku (2 + floating bid w/Chuugoku)
  • Imabari Nishi (Ehime)
  • Ikeda (Tokushima)
  • Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi) 
Despite the score in the final, Ikeda's solid performance up until the 7th inning of the final, plus the JHBF's chance to invite one of the strongest teams of the 1980s back to Koushien is too good to pass up. Meitoku's loss to the eventual champions, plus ace Kishi may prove to be too compelling to the JHBF to not invite them as the floating bid - and while Takagawa Gakuen is their 1st alternate, their resume I do not think will compare to Meitoku to challenge for the bid.

Kyushu (4)
  • Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa)
  • Misato Kougyou (Okinawa)
  • Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima)
  • Chinzei (Kumamoto)
Okinawa will have 2 teams represented at Haru Koushien this year. As Misato Kougyou almost pulled off the victory over Okinawa Shougaku. And Okishou 1-hit a strong Chinzei team. Kamimura Gakuen should get an invite, and now it is Chinzei's status that is a bit more shaky after the 1-hit shutout loss. I do not expect them to fall out, though if they do it might be to Souseikan - especially if Misato Kougyou wins the final.

Meiji Jingu (1) - Champion - Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa)
Sadly for Chikyuu Kankyou, Nihon Bunri ace Iidzuka could only pitch 6 of the needed 9 innings.  Actually he pitched all 8, but collapsed in 7th and 8th giving up an 8-0 lead losing 9-8.

This means that the representative will be:
  • Souseikan (Nagasaki)
Chinzei can breathe a sigh of relief now as the extra bid means that even if they struggled, they are pretty much secured of a phone call come the new year.

21st Century Team (3)
  • Western Representative - Ooshima (Kagoshima)
  • Eastern Representative - Kakunodate (Akita)
  • Wild-Card Representative - Ise (Mie) or Kainan (Wakayama)

21st Century Nominations


We now have the regional nominations for the 21st century teams. Note that there will be one selected from western japan (everything west of the Kinki Super-Region), one from the eastern region (everything Kinki and east), and one wild card. Nominees are for each prefecture, then for each super-region.

These are a bit harder to project until the final teams are selected for each super-region, and even then it's difficult.

Hokkaido - Teshio
Teshio made it out of Nayoro as the regional champion, but lost in the first round of the Super-Regional to Tomakomai Chuo in the final inning 6-4.
Tohoku - Kakunodate (Akita)
  • Aomori - Aomori
  • Akita - Kakunodate
  • Yamagata - Yamamoto Gakuen
  • Iwate - Ibonai
  • Miyagi - Matsushima
  • Fukushima - Sukagawa
This might be a mulligan for Kakunodate not being able to follow through back in the Akita natsu taikai when they lost to Akita Shougyou 4-3 in the bottom of the 15th inning.  This time around, they won Akita, then defeated fellow nominee Sukagawa before losing a barnburner 13-11 to Touryou.

Kanto - Oyamadai (Tokyo)
  • Tochigi - Mooka
  • Ibaraki - Shimodate Dai-ichi
  • Gunma - Numata
  • Saitama -  Shiritsu Kawagoe
  • Chiba - Kemigawa
  • Kanagawa - Nichidai
  • Yamanashi - Yoshida
  • Tokyo - Oyamadai
It looks like Kanto perhaps went for the best baseball representative.  Oyamadai defeated both Soujitsu and Nichidai Buzan before losing to Toukaidai Takanawadai.  I personally thought they would choose Nichidai, but instead went with Tokyo.

Hokushinetsu - Nagano Nishi (Nagano)
  • Niigata - Sanjyou
  • Nagano - Nagano Nishi
  • Toyama - Toyama
  • Fukui - Kanadzu
  • Ishikawa - Hakui
Nagano Nishi baseball-wise is a bit of a stretch.  While they finished 3rd in the Nagano prefecturals, they were routed early by Toyama Dai-ichi. Compared to the rest though, they have the strongest resume.

Tokai - Ise (Mie)
  • Shizuoka - Fuji
  • Aichi - Kouzouji
  • Gifu - Gifu Kougyou
  • Mie - Ise
I'm kind of glad they chose Ise. I remember seeing them back in 2006, and wanted to see if they could somehow break through. This year they did, finishing 2nd to Mie before losing to Seki Shoukou 7-6 in the first round of the super-regionals.

Kinki - Kainan (Wakayama)
  • Shiga - Youkaichi
  • Kyoto - Nishijyouyou
  • Nara - Kashiba
  • Wakayama - Kainan
  • Osaka - Teshima
  • Hyogo - Himeji Minami
Kainan's 2 losses were narrow defeats to Chiben Wakayama and Riseisha - 2 very respectable schools.

Chuugoku - Daitou (Shimane)
  • Tottori - Kurayoshi Higashi
  • Okayama - Higashi-Okayama Kougyou
  • Shimane - Daitou
  • Hiroshima - Kamo
  • Yamaguchi - Kumage Minami
Daitou's only notable game was their first round loss in the super-regional where they hanged with Kurashiki Shougyou early before faltering late.

Shikoku - Sakaide (Kagawa)
  • Tokushima - Ikeda
  • Kagawa - Sakaide
  • Ehime - Touon
  • Kochi - Kochi Higashi
Sakaide lost in their first round matchup against Imabari Nishi in the super-regionals, but won Kagawa defeating schools such as Eimei, Jinsei Gakuen and Marugame.

Kyushu - Ooshima (Kagoshima)
  • Fukuoka - Kokura
  • Saga - Waseda Saga
  • Nagasaki - Shimabara Nougyou
  • Miyazaki - Miyazaki Minami
  • Oita - Oita Oginodai
  • Kumamoto - Taragi
  • Kagoshima - Ooshima
  • Okinawa - Chinen
Kyushu interestingly goes with Ooshima, certainly the weakest representative out of the super-regional selections. They were eliminated in the semi-finals of the prefecturals losing 2-1 to Ibusuki Shougyou.

2 selections right now I find a bit questionable.  Tokushima nominated Ikeda despite the fact they made the final 2.  Unless for some reason they think the JHBF will pick Meitoku Gijyuku over Ikeda for the 2nd bid, I see no reason to do this.

The other is Waseda Saga.  Waseda Saga was established in 2010, so any history of something to be nominated for would be very recent.  They're already making waves in Saga, and could start dominating the prefecture sooner rather than later. Even if Waseda Saga is picked as the Kyushu nominee, I doubt the JHBF would choose them either.

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With the 21st century finalists determined, I can make predictions - however, since nominations are not based upon baseball merit it's harder to predict who they will choose.

Kakunodate (Tohoku/Akita)
I believe much like Engaru, Kakunodate will be selected based upon their ability to follow-up their performance in the summer.  The only thing that would affect this would be the fact that it does seem that the JHBF seems to be a bit late in selecting teams based upon this merit (see Engaru and Tosa)

Ooshima (Kyushu/Kagoshima)
Ooshima I believe is the main reason why the JHBF perhaps made the 21st century bids in the first place. Ooshima did not do well baseball-wise, but probably has done something special in the community.  Considering they were the only school that made the final 9 that did not reach the super-regionals they may just be picked by the committee.

Ise (Tokai/Mie) / Kainan (Kinki/Wakayama)
Both would be selected for the same reason. Both are in prefectures where there are major schools that dominate the prefecture.  Both reached the finals and fared very well despite losing.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

44th Meiji Jingu Tournament - We have a champion!

So we have a champion, and perhaps in doing so endorses one of my theories about the urban super-regionals not perhaps trying as hard...

Day 3
Ryuuokudai Heian's ace Inudzuka couldn't get past the 2nd inning as he failed to record an out giving up 5 runs in the 3rd to Nihon Bunri which included a solo HR by opposing pitcher Iidzuka.  That erased an 2-0 early lead and forced Heian to chase.

That they did though as a sac fly in the 4th, followed by timely doubles from Ootani and Kawai in the 5th tied the game at 5-5!

But already on their 3rd pitcher, Tanaka was asked to go in long relief.  However, in the 7th Kodachi delivered a double to push ahead what would be the eventual winning run to end Kinki's hopes of having a 2nd bid!

The second game between Komadai Tomakomai and Okinawa Shougaku was marred by errors.  So much so that in a game that wound up 5-3, only 1 run was earned!!

In the 1st, a throwing error by 3B Tamaru with 2 outs continued the inning, and it was punished by Okishou with hits from Irabu and Fuchigami for a 3-0 lead.  Fuchigami would feel bad about scoring on the error, so he had one of his own in the top of the 2nd allowing Komadai to take 1 back.

That run would be given back to Okishou as in the 3rd SS Ogasawara would make an error of his own to make it 4-1.  Akamine Ken would get the only RBI of the game as he would get a hit to center extending the lead to 5-1.

More errors would get Komadai within 2 in the 8th, but that would be the closest they would get in the mistake-filled game.

Day 4
Day 4 was anti-climactic for semifinal matches.  Imabari Nishi and Nihon Bunri trade a run in each of the first 2 innings, but then after a run in the 3rd, Nihon Bunri blows up for 4 runs in the 4th.  Errors did not help Imabari's cause either has eventually would be mercy-ruled 10-3 in 7 innings.

It was worse for Iwakuni.  Errors put them behind 2-0 early, as Okinawa Shougaku put up runs in every inning culminating in back-to-back-to-back doubles in a 7-run 4th.  The game would only last 4.5 innings as Okishou mercy-ruled Iwakuni 11-1.

Day 5 - Championship
Nihon Bunri had the opportunity to be the first Hokushinetsu representative to win the Meiji Jingu tournament since Seiryou in 1991.  More importantly, it would mean a bid in all likelihood for Chikyuu Kankyou.

Okinawa Shougaku was looking to give Kyushu their 4th title and 1st since Yanagigaura back in 2004.  Chinzei would be able to breathe a sigh of relief as their main competitor for the final bid in Souseikan would be given the Meiji Jingu bid.

And it was one of those game you just couldn't believe, even if we told you...

Hoshi starts the game off for Nihon Bunri with a leadoff HR to right.  In the 3rd, Kamakura would hit a 2-out solo HR to left, making it 2-0!  Ace Iidzuka would blast his 2nd of the tournament to right in the 4th, extending it to 3-0!

Higa-kantoku tried to stop the bleeding as he sent in Kubo from RF to switch places with ace Yamashiro Daichi, but the power output didn't stop there. In the 5th, back-to-back doubles by Kobayashi and Kamakura were paid off by Yamaguchi's 2-run double of his own.  Even a failed send home of Yamaguchi didn't stop the inning as Iidzuka would his 2nd HR of the game to center making it a 7-0 game!!!

And cleanup batter Ikeda had had enough of everyone else going yard, and blasted one to left in the 6th giving Nihon Bunri a commanding 8-0 lead!!

Facing elimination in the bottom of the 7th, Okinawa Shougaku went to work - and made this already crazy game into a comeback for the ages.

With one down, Iidzuka would plunk Irabu.  Kaneshiro would hit for Fuchigami and hit a double to right.

And that's when ace Yamashiro Daichi (yes, he returned to the mound in the 7th) would keep his team alive with a 3-run HR to left center!  While the next 2 batters would be retired, Okishou was still in the game at 8-3...

Now the 8th inning.  Kubo starts it off with a triple to right.  Nishihira plates him with a single to center... 8-4.

Anzato booms a 2-run HR to left-center... It's now 8-6.  And still Ooi-kantoku doesn't send in someone like Kodachi, or last game's starter Fujita, instead sticking with ace Iidzuka...

Uehara flies out to right for the first out, but Irabu singles to left.  Now with 2 out, Yamashiro Daichi singles to left.

The inning looks to be over after Sunagawa hits one back to Iidzuka, but something goes horribly wrong and he throws it away allowing Irabu to score making it 8-7...

With Ooi-kantoku leaving Iidzuka on the mound even still, it sealed Nihon Bunri's fate.  He would walk Akamine Ken, sending up Kubo for his 2nd AB of the inning.

And he wouldn't miss.  Kubo would hit one to right, scoring both Daichi and Ken to complete the comeback. 9-8.  In a minor way, Okinawa Shougaku did what Nihon Bunri couldn't do in 2009.  (Sorry Nihon Bunri, but while I like you, until you can win a big game final, it will always come back to that game...)

So, with Okinawa Shougaku's victory Chinzei can rest easy.  With the Meiji Jingu bid, Souseikan will be invited and Chinzei can hold onto their last Kyushu bid (or technically vice versa).  Sadly for Chikyuu Kankyou, Nihon Bunri's collapse means that they will be on the sidelines watching senbatsu from home...

Sunday, November 17, 2013

44th Meiji Jingu Tournament - Days 1 & 2

Well, we're off in the Meiji Jingu tournament to decide the last bid to go to a region and there have been some surprises.

Day 1
Ryuukokudai Heian (Kinki) did what I though they would against Mie (Tokai).  Starting in the 3rd, Imai and Nakaguchi with back to back hits would drive in a run each to make it a 2-0 game.  That would be followed up by the Takahashi battery (C Yuuhashi & P Keiji) in the 4th for another 2 runs.  And a Mie error in the 5th would give them a 5-0 lead.

But as Mie is wont to do, they scrap their way back after the break.  Nishioka would get them on the board in the 6th with a groundout.  2 innings later, Seko would get a timely RBI, and Nishioka would follow that up with a 2-run double to make it a 1-run ballgame.

However, that would be the closest they would get.  Ootsuka would come in as Heian's 3rd pitcher and shut down Mie to secure the 5-4 win.

Kanto Dai-ichi (Tokyo) did not start Abe Takeshi in their game against Okinawa Shougaku (Kyushu).  But then again, he's actually wearing #10 apparently!  The ace number belongs to Haketa Akihiro, who did start the game.

And he held the Okishou offense in check as his team jumped on ace Yamashiro. Yamaguchi started things off with a timely single with runners at the corners, and then Ikeda followed that up with a double and it was 2-0 Kanto in the 1st.  Ikeda would deliver again in the 3rd, with another base hit to make it a 3-0 ballgame.  That would be it for Yamashiro as Kubo would come in from right to swap places.

The game stayed at 3-0 until post-break where Okishou finally got to Haketa. With runners at the corners, Akamine Ken delivered a base hit to score 1, and then Kubo himself would hit a double to make it a 1-run ballgame.

Haketa would give way in the 8th still holding onto the lead.  I would have expected them to go Abe, but again I would have been wrong. Instead they went to unknown Tanabe Ren. That didn't go well when Anzato would get a hit to left, tying the game.

It then went all wrong in the 9th as Tanabe would only record one out while giving up 5 runs, ensuring Okishou's advance to the next round.

Day 2
The first game of the 2nd round was a no-contest affair sadly. My supposed favorite, Hachinohe Gakuen Kousei (Tohoku) was never in the game against Imabari Nishi (Shikoku) as their #3 batter Ochi Itsuki would drive in 3 of their 5 runs en route to a 5-1 victory. Of course, it didn't help also that the team committed 4 errors in the game as well...

The second game almost seemed like the first. Hakuoudai Ashikaga (Kanto) quickly took the lead over Iwakuni (Chuugoku) with a sac fly from Ooshita in the first and a timely from Higa in the 2nd.  Kawamoto's double in the 3rd would bring Iwakuni within 1, but a pair in the 5th seemed to make the game a copy of the first.

But much like Kanto Dai-ichi, things went horribly wrong in the 8th inning for Hakuoudai.  Tsuchiya would start it off with a timely hit to center to make it a 4-2 ballgame.  With the bases loaded, Kameya would hit a grounder to short. Kamon would go home, only to throw it away... 2 runs would score and the game was tied at 4. Ace Higa would be relieved as Ooshita would come in from left to pitch. Sadly, a wild pitch would allow the gyakuten run to score.

Iwakuni would tack on one more as Yanagawa would shut the door in the 9th ensuring that Kanto would not get another bid (Nisshougakushadai Fuzoku should get the floating bid now).

The schools with some hope left may be:
  • Hokkaido - Sapporo Ootani
  • Hokushinetsu - Chikyuu Kankyou
  • Kinki - Sanda Shousei
  • Chuugoku/Shikoku - Takigawa Gakuen
  • Kyushu - Souseikan

Monday, November 4, 2013

44th Meiji Jingu Tournament Bracket

I did not know that the brackets for the Meiji Jingu tournament were predetermined. With all super-regional champions determined, the bracket is as follows (the region is stated here as that is what is important):
  • Imabari Nishi (Shikoku) vs. Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Tohoku)
  • Nihon Bunri (Hokushinetsu) vs. Ryuukokudai Heian (Kinki)-Mie (Tokai) winner
  • Komadai Tomakomai (Hokkaido) vs. Kanto Dai-ichi (Tokyo)-Okinawa Shougaku (Kyushu) winner
  • Hakuoudai Ashikaga (Kanto ex Tokyo) vs. Iwakuni (Chuugoku)
 And as stated earlier, here are the schools that may have something at stake:
  • Hokkaido - Sapporo Ootani
  • Tohoku - Aomori Yamada (I think the JHBF would still overlook Hanamaki Higashi)
  • Kanto/Tokyo - Narashino/Kasumigaura/Kendai Takasaki (they just need either region to win)
  • Hokushinetsu - Chikyuu Kankyou
  • Tokai - Shizuoka
  • Kinki - Sanda Shousei
  • Chuugoku/Shikoku - Takigawa Gakuen (they just need either region to win)
  • Kyushu - Souseikan
So with that in mind, let's look at the matchups:

Imabari Nishi (Shikoku) vs. Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Tohoku)
Imabari Nishi appears to be back after a year off. They did defeat Kishi and Meitoku Gijyuku, but it could be a case of where the pitcher remains but the offense is weaker. Plus, there is the 5-2 win over an unknown Sakaide team who won Kagawa as well

Kousei, as they are now called, completely annihilated the Tohoku field including wins over Sendai Ikuei, Sakata Minami and Hanamaki Higashi before handling an unknown Touryou squad to win the title.  Now, much like Meitoku Gijyuku, both Sendai Ikuei and Hanamaki Higashi had a completely new starting 9, so despite their Natsu Koushien appearance, you cannot take too much from it. But the fact that Kousei won so convincingly is a big plus (the 2-1 win over Hanamaki Higashi can be discounted because they always play tough no matter what the roster).

Advantage: Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei
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Nihon Bunri (Hokushinetsu) vs. Ryuukokudai Heian (Kinki)-Mie (Tokai) winner

The opening round game between the neighboring super-regions is a tough one to handicap. Yes, Ryuukokudai Heian did win their 5th title defeating Koushien caliber teams such as Oumi, Chiben Gakuen, Riseisha and Chiben Wakayama.

But Shiga (Oumi) was weak in general, Nara (Chiben Gakuen) is apparently going through some reorganization of some sort as Tenri has fallen by the wayside and Chiben Gakuen has not taken over to dominate as one would have thought, Osaka (Riseisha) apparently has a power vacuum at the top that is waiting to be filled, and Chiben Wakayama may be on the sunset of it's run.

That's not to say Mie isn't without its own question marks. Yes, they defeated both Shizuoka Shougyou and Chuukyoudai Chuukyou, but they also had to come back to defeat unknown Toyokawa to win the final. And Chuukyoudai Chuukyou hasn't been the same since they won the title.

Advantage goes to Ryuukokudai Heian just because of the level of competition, but Kinki has performed poorly and Mie is generally up for a challenge.

The winner faces Nihon Bunri, who had an easier time against Tsuruga Kehi and Cinderella Toyama Dai-ichi before having to walk off twice versus Chikyuu Kankyou and Toukai Dai-san (both Nagano schools!!).

And therein lies the rub. Despite the early success the close victories against Nagano, who themselves are seemingly going through a low part in their cycle, means that Nihon Bunri doesn't look as good.

Advantage: Ryuukokudai Heian
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Komadai Tomakomai (Hokkaido) vs. Kanto Dai-ichi (Tokyo)-Okinawa Shougaku (Kyushu) winner

Okinawa Shougaku won Kyushu despite having to revamp most of their roster from the summer. This after they seemingly made improvements from the spring. Thing is, their list of teams they defeated does not seemingly instill confidence in their prospects.

Kanto Dai-ichi claims the final spot after a very tight game against Nisshougakushadai Fuzoku. Oddly, Kanto did not go with ace Abe on back-to-back days. This won't be a problem for the first two games, but will be thereafter.  Abe shut down the Nisshougakusha offense once he came in, so I do expect the same against Okinawa Shougaku.

The winner faces Komadai Tomakomai, who wins Hokkaido - but once again not convincingly with 1-run victories over Toukai Dai-yon and Sapporo Ootani.

Kanto Dai-ichi may get out of this part of the bracket, but if they go to their bullpen it doesn't look too good.

Advantage: Kanto Dai-ichi
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Hakuoudai Ashikaga (Kanto ex Tokyo) vs. Iwakuni (Chuugoku)

Kanto seemed to have a fair amount of parity as half of the super-regional games were decided by 2 runs or less. That and the finalists were actually the runner-ups in their prefecture!!

The names may have been "brand" names, but they weren't really anywhere to be seen in the past year. And those that were - Yokohama, Chiba Keizaidai Fuzoku, Jyousou Gakuin were eliminated right off the bat.

Iwakuni won a Chuugoku Super-regional that was littered with new names. Now, they did not encounter any issues up until the final where Hiroshima Shinjyou put up a late fight which is a plus.  Problem is, we don't know how big of a plus it really means considering the strength of the Chuugoku region in general.

Advantage: Hakuoudai Ashikaga

Right now, of all the qualified participants, perhaps Kousei has the best resume. Oddly enough, I actually think that Kanto/Tokyo will not win the Meiji Jingu tournament simply because it would let a brand team get an invitation - that is unless the committee picks Kasumigaura.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

86th Haru Koushien - Mie wins Tokai Super-Regional!

Our 5th Super-Regional champ has been determined, and it was almost an upset.

Toyokawa had a dream run in the super-regionals, defeating teams such as Tokoha Tachibana, Oogaki Nichidai and Shizuoka. Standing in front of them was Mie, yet another Koushien team that is known for their grittiness.

Toyokawa jumped right on Mie early as leadoff batter Nakamura would open the game with a triple to right center. 4 batters later, he would finally be driven in by Itou. Nakamura would return the favor in the 2nd with a timely hit of his own and suddenly they led 2-0.

Mie's Imai would settle down after that, while Toyokawa's Tanaka continued to keep the Mie offense off the board, despite giving up a fair share of hits.

In the 8th, Nakamura would come up clutch again, delivering another timely hit extending the lead to 3-0, and the game perhaps seemed in hand.

But Mie's captain Nagano seemed to have the answer for Tanaka's slider and with that information got to work. One run already in and now bases loaded with 2 out, a hard grounder by Yamamoto to 2B Shima caught him in-between and it would go off his glove allowing one run to score.

That error opened the gates as the next batter Sada would hit a slow roller to short. SS Takakuwa would charge and make an errant throw to 1st allowing 2 runs to score giving Mie the lead. Imai closed the door in the 9th and they claim just their 4th title and 1st in 19 years!

Given Toyokawa's performance, I do expect them along with Mie to make it to Haru Koushien.

Aki Taikai Recap-to-date - Entering the final stretch!

With the exception of Tokyo, all Super-Regionals will be completed this weekend:

Kanto ex Tokyo
Well, there goes Narashino again... Starter Fukada gives up 2 runs early and the offense can't get going as they lose to Hakuoudai Ashikaga 3-1.  Kendai Takasaki seemed to have Yamanashi Gakuindai Fuzoku carrying a 3-1 lead into the final 2 innings, but a 3-spot in the 8th was their downfall.

On the other side, Yokohama starter Itou gives up 5 runs in the first inning, and while they wind up outhitting Sano Nichidai 11-9, they cannot make up the early deficit and lose 5-3. And finally, Kasumigaura gave a great fight against Kiryuu Dai-ichi and had stifled their offense. But with the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 9th, Kiryuu got runners on 1st and 2nd and #7 batter Onoda delivered the sayonara hit to center.

In the semifinals, Hakuoudai's Higa scattered 7 hits over 9 innings, giving up just 1 run in the 9th inning for a 3-1 win over Yamanashi Gakuindai Fuzoku. In the second game, Sano Nichidai had the tables turned on them. Kiryuu Dai-ichi scored 4 in the first inning, knocking starter Inaba out of the game and would go on to win 5-0.

So it'll be Hakuoudai Ashikaga and Kiryuu Dai-ichi will battle for the title while Yamanashi Gakuindai Fuzoku and Sano Nichidai will need to wait for the phone call.

Kyushu
The semifinals did not go as I expected. After the strong performance by Chinzei so far, they went out and got 1-hit by Okinawa Shougaku, losing 4-1. Admittedly, it is not a good showing.

Misato Kougyou's ace Inami struggled to keep Kamimura Gakuen's batters from reaching base as he surrendered 10 hits, but he constantly wiggled his way out of trouble as Misato would never trail, winning 5-1 to advance to the finals!

And so, just over 3 weeks to the day, Misato Kougyou and Okinawa Shougaku will do battle once again at Okinawa Cellular Stadium Naha! In the prefectural final, the teams were scoreless until the 9th when Misato scored 3 to win the title.

Monday, October 28, 2013

86th Haru Koushien - Shikoku champ determined!

The semifinal games were surprisingly not close. First, Kishi wound up giving up a 4-run 4th to Imabari Nishi (Ehime 2) as Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi 1) couldn't muster any offense losing 4-0.

On the other side, Ikeda's (Tokushima 3) offense gave Myouzai a game off as they scored early and often to defeat Seikou Gakuen (Tokushima 1) 9-3.

Perhaps though, Ikeda should have actually given Myouzai some time off because he was pulled after 6 innings trailing 1-0 to Imabari Nishi. The bullpen would give up 9 runs thereafter as Imabari Nishi claims their 5th title and first in 4 years!

Despite the loss, I do expect Ikeda to receive an invite, given they were a powerhouse in the 1980's and are seemingly experiencing a renaissance. It's not a 100% guarantee, but it looks fairly good.

The fact that Meitoku Gijyuku lost because of one inning probably bumps out Seikou Gakuen from consideration for the floating bid. It also makes things very tough for the Chuugoku region too to put up a team that could compete with them for the bid.

Aki Taikai Recap-to-Date - All Regions

Now that all Super-Regionals are in play, we can do a full recap from the weekend

Kanto ex Tokyo
Their super-regional was actually supposed to start Saturday, but was postponed due to rain. So only 3 games have been played so far, with the other 4 being played today.

It went fairly scratch with one very surprising upset. In the one game at Hitachi-Naka Municipal Stadium, Kiryuu Dai-ichi (Gunma 2) shutout Chiba Keizaidai Fuzoku (Chiba 2) 3-0. Meanwhile, over at Mito Municipal, Narashino (Chiba 1) was deuces wild against Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki 2), putting up 4 2-run innings after falling behind 2-0 to win 8-2. The upset was in the 2nd game where Hakuoudai Ashikaga (Tochigi 2) pulled ahead of Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama 1) 6-1, then held off a furious rally in the final 2 innings to win 6-5.

In today's action, Kendai Takasaki (Gunma 1) held off Mito Kougyou (Ibaraki 3) 3-2, while Toukaidai Koufu (Yamanashi 2) couldn't get level with Sano Nichidai (Tochigi 1) falling 3-1. Afternoon action sees Nichidai (Kanagawa 2) prevents the shutout, but loses to Yamanashi Gakuindai Fuzoku (Yamanashi 1) 5-2, and Yokohama (Kanagawa 1) shutting out Shiritsu Kawagoe (Saitama 2) 5-0.

Tokyo
The rainout also affected the Tokyo Super-Regionals and as a result only 2 quarterfinals games have been played. Not surprisingly, Nichidai-san and Kanto Dai-ichi shutout their opponents 8-0 and 7-0 and look poised for a finals matchup.

The other two matchups are Toukaidai Takanawadai vs. Koyamadai and Nittai Ebara vs. Nisshougakushadai Fuzoku.

Toukai
Mie (Mie 1) has just annihilated their opponents, defeating Shizuoka Shougyou (Shizuoka 2) 10-0 in 6 innings to reach the finals. Their opponent will be... Toyokawa (Aichi 2)!  While they did give up an early 2-0 lead to Shizuoka (Shizuoka 1), ace Tanaka kept his school in the game and they walked off Shizuoka in the bottom of the 9th!

Given Toyokawa's performance in the Super-Regionals, even if they lose to Mie I expect them to get the 2nd bid.

Kinki
Well, PL Gakuen (Osaka 2) may have made it to the super-regionals finally, but they still have work to do as their triumvirate of pitchers couldn't hold off Fukuchiyama Seibi (Kyoto 1) as they fall 3-2.  Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo 1) had a surprisingly hard time against Kansaidai Hokuyou (Osaka 3), needing 5 runs late to win 8-6.

Then in the quarterfinals, Ryuukokudai Heian (Kyoto 1) and Chiben Gakuen (Nara 1) were embroiled in a low-scoring affair, but the home cooking couldn't save Chiben Gakuen as could manage just 1 run on 6 hits to lose 2-1.  They will face Riseisha (Osaka 1) as Sanda Shousei (Hyogo 2) just couldn't get any traction managing just 5 hits in a 5-0 loss.

The host prefecture would be completely eliminated on Sunday as Naradai Fuzoku (Nara 2) was completely whitewashed by Chiben Wakayama (Wakayama 1) 10-0 in 5 innings.  They will play a Houtoku Gakuen squad who is probably happy to see a week off.  They and Fukuchiyama Seibi could not generate any offense in their matchup but did push the only run in in the 6th.

Chuugoku
Games were rained out on Friday, so the first two rounds would be played on Saturday-Monday.

At Kurashiki Muscat Stadium, upsets were the story of the weekend. Okayama Ridai Fuzoku (Okayama 4) started off with a 7 inning, 3-hit shutout over Izumo Nishi (Shimane 2).  Then, Soushi Gakuen (Okayama 1) got 4 runs on just 4 hits versus Takagawa Gakuen (Yamaguchi 2), but 10 free passes helped precipitate their downfall as they were upset 7-4. On Sunday, it was an upset by seeding only as Kouryou (Hiroshima 3) defeated Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori 1) 5-1. With Hiroshima Shinjyou's (Hiroshima 1) Yamaoka delivering a 3-hitter against Iwami (Tottori 3), it sets up a rematch of the Hiroshima semifinals.

Across town at Kurashiki Muscat Stadium, it was all scratch seed-wise. Iwakuni (Yamaguchi 1) started off by dominating Tottori Shougyou (Tottori 2) 7-1. Soutoku (Hiroshima 2) then limited Ube Shougyou (Yamaguchi 3) to just 1 run on 5 hits winning 3-1. Kurshiki Shougyou (Okayama 2) let Daitou back in the game with 4 in the 5th, but pulled away late with 5 runs to win 9-5. And Okayama-ken Kyousei made the score respectable late, but was never in it after falling behind 2-1 in the 3rd, losing 6-3.

The quarterfinals just concluded today, and in early action Takagawa Gakuen actually mercy-ruled Okayama Ridai Fuzoku 11-1, and Iwakuni had to use a 4-run 7th to defeat Soutoku 4-0.

In the late games Kouryou was actually mercy-ruled by Hiroshima Shinjyou 9-2 in 7 innings! And Taisha tried to keep up with Kurashiki Shougyou, but would fall 7-5.

Kyushu
Kyushu, unlike the other super-regionals are just running through their brackets with very few days off. So today they're already in the quarterfinals. As of writing the first half of those games have been completed.

On the upper left side part of the bracket, Yaeyama Shoukou (Okinawa 3) started off struggling against Ibusuki Shougyou (Kagoshima 2) finally getting on the board with a pair of runs in the 6th eventually winning 3-0. Next up was Waseda Saga (Saga 1) who has quickly entered their name into the hat in the prefecture. The game would be yet another low-scoring affair, and when they finally pulled ahead 2-1 in the 12th, all seemed well. But Baba couldn't close out the game, Waseda comes back to score 2 and send the home team packing for the winter.

You'd think that they would have faced Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka 1), but they needed a run in the 9th just to send the game versus Chinzei (Kumamoto 2) into enchousen. And when they though they had the game won with a run in the 11th, Chinzei comes back to tie the game. 3 innings later, the pitching staff would run out of gas and Chinzei would win 3-2. Chinzei would then use a 4-run lucky 7 to defeat Waseda Saga and advance to the semifinals!

On the lower left quadrant, Hasami (Nagasaki 2) was surprisingly involved in a slugfest against Kitsuki (Oita 1) jumping out to a 7-0 lead, watching it shrivel to a 2-run lead before stabilizing for a 12-9 win. They would play an Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa 2) squad who got by Nichinan Gakuen (Miyazaki 1) 3-1. Hasami however, couldn't get involved with 2 straight sock 'em games as they were mercy ruled 9-1 in 7 innings.

To the other half, and Misato Kougyou (Okinawa 1) really struggled with Oita Shougyou (Oita 2) 1-0. And now they will have even more trouble with Souseikan (Nagasaki 1) who had no problems with Kashima (Saga 2). Kamimura Gakuen (Kagoshima 1) had surprisingly no trouble with Nishi-Nippon Tankidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka 2) 7-3, and will face a Nisshou Gakuen (Miyazaki 2) squad who has defeated both Ginoza (Okinawa 4) and Taragi (Kumamoto 1).

Well, blow me down - Misato Kougyou shuts out Souseikan 1-0, and Nisshou Gakuen tried to rally a 2nd time against Kamimura Gakuen but the 9-3 deficit was too much, falling 10-6.