Friday, January 25, 2013

The 85th Senbatsu field and initial reaction...

So the field is announced, and there are some surprises, though I did manage to predict most of the field (though with many teams secure, it's not that hard):

Hokkaido
  • 北照 - Hokushou (Otaru-shi) - 5th overall, 2nd consecutive - B-

Tohoku
  • 仙台育英 - Sendai Ikuei (Miyagi, Sendai-shi) - 10th appearance, 1st in 6 years - A-
  • 聖光学院 - Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima, Koori-machi) - 4th appearance, 2nd consecutive - B
  • 盛岡大付属 - Moriokadai Fuzoku (Tohoku Memorial Bid, Iwate, Morioka-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 3 years - C-
  • 青森山田 - Aomori Yamada (Tohoku Meiji Jingu Bid, Aomori, Aomori-shi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 8 years - C
  •  山形中央 - Yamagata Chuo (Meiji Jingu Bid, Yamagata, Yamagata-shi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years
Kanto ex/Tokyo
  • 浦和学院 - Urawa Gakuin (Saitama, Saitama-shi) - 9th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B
  • 花咲徳栄 - Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama, Kazo-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 3 years - B-
  • 常総学院 - Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki, Tsuchiura-shi) - 7th appearance, 1st in 8 years - C
  • 宇都宮商 - Utsunomiya Shougyou (Tochigi, Utsunomiya-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 34 years - C-
Tokyo
  • 安田学園 - Yasuda Gakuen (Sumida-ku) - 1st appearance - B
  • 早稲田実 - Waseda Jitsugyou (Kokubunji-shi) - 20th appearance, 1st in 3 years - B
Hokushinetsu
  • 春江工 - Harue Kougyou (Fukui, Sakai-shi) - 1st appearance - B-
  • 敦賀気比- Tsuruga Kehi (Fukui, Tsuruga-shi) - 5th appearance, 2nd consecutive - C
Tokai
  • 県岐阜商 - Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou (Gifu, Gifu-shi) - 27th appearance, 1st in 18 years! - C+
  • 菰野 - Komono (Mie, Komono-shi) - 1st appearance - C
  • 常葉菊川 - Tokoha Kikugawa (Shizuoka, Kikugawa-shi) - 4th appearance, 1st in 5 years - C
Kinki
  • 京都翔英 - Kyoto Shouei (Kyoto, Uji-shi) - 1st appearance - B
  • 報徳学園 - Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo, Nishinomiya-shi) - 19th appearance, 1st in 2 years - B+
  • 龍谷大平安 - Ryuukokudai Heian (Kyoto, Kyoto-shi) - 37th appearance, 1st in 5 years - B-
  • 大阪桐蔭 - Osaka Touin (Osaka, Daitou-shi) - 6th appearance, 2nd consecutive - B+
  • 履正社 - Riseisha (Osaka, Toyonaka-shi) - 5th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B-
  • 大和広陵 - Yamato Kouryou (Nara, Kouryou-machi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 28 years - B-
Chuugoku
  • 関西 - Kanzei (Okayama, Okayama-shi) - 12th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B+
  • 広陵 - Kouryou (Hiroshima, Hiroshima-shi) - 23rd appearance, 1st in 3 years - C+
  • 岩国商 - Iwakuni Shougyou (Yamaguchi, Iwakuni-shi) - 1st appearance - C+
Shikoku
  • 高知 - Kochi (Kochi, Kochi-shi) - 17th appearance, 2nd consecutive -C+
  • 鳴門 - Naruto (Tokushima, Naruto-shi) - 8th appearance, 2nd consecutive - C
  • 済美 - Saibi (Ehime, Matsuyama-shi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 9 years - B-
Kyushu
  • 沖縄尚学 - Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa, Naha-shi) - 5th appearance, 1st in 5 years - B
  • 済々黌 - Seiseikou (Kumamoto, Kumamoto-shi) - 4th appearance, 1st in 55 years!! - C+
  • 尚志館- Shoushikan (Kagoshima, Shibushi-shi) - 1st appearance - C-
  • 創成館 - Souseikan (Nagasaki, Isahaya-shi) - 1st appearance - C-
21st Century Bids
  • Higashi-Nihon (東日本) - 遠軽 - Engaru (Hokkaido, Engaru-machi) - 1st appearance
  • Higashi-Nihon (東日本) - いわき海星 - Iwaki Kaisei (Fukushima, Iwaki-shi) - 1st appearance
  • Nishi-Nihon (西日本) - 門司学園-- Moji Gakuen (Fukuoka, Kitakyushu-shi) - 1st appearance
  • Nishi-Nihon (西日本) - 土佐 - Tosa (Kochi, Kochi-shi) - 7th appearance, 1st in 20 years
  • Wild Card 1 - 五泉 - Gosen (Niigata, Gosen-shi) - 1st appearance
  • Wild Card 1 - 遠軽 - Engaru (Hokkaido, Engaru-machi) - 1st appearance
  • Wild Card 2 - 土佐 - Tosa (Kochi, Kochi-shi) - 7th appearance, 1st in 20 years
  • Wild Card 2 - 益田翔陽 - Masuda Shouyou (Shimane, Masuda-shi) - 1st appearance
So, of the field of 32 selected via Fall Taikai play, it would appear Aomori Yamada got the snub.  But not for Sakata Minami, but Yamagata Chuo!  I find that selection a bit surprising given the fact that indeed the committee passed on Sakata Minami.  Aomori Yamada was in their game against Sendai Ikuei all the way to the end, while Yamagata Chuo waited until late to charge against Seikou Gakuin.

I don't see any quick tip-off as to why Yamagata Chuo would be selected, but fact of the matter is, they have the invite and are on their way come March.

Also, Tenri's welcome has worn off.  Chiben Gakuen has been taking their share, and now - for the first time in over 30 years a team not named Tenri or Chiben Gakuen goes to Koushien!  Yamato Kouryou and their ace will try to carry the flag for the prefecture.  Don't let us down!

The other shocking thing for me were the 21st Century Bids.  Engaru didn't outright get the Higashi-Nihon bid, instead the selection committee selected Iwaki Kaisei.  The fact they got the primary bid and not one of the wild cards shows that the committee really wanted to stress the Tohoku Earthquake - in addition to the Tohoku Friendship bid AND the extra Meiji Jingu bid.

Engaru still managed to get in though, thanks to one of the wild cards.

Tosa was rewarded by the committee with their 1st appearance in 3 consecutive tries at the 21st Century - and was in fact given the primary Nishi-Nihon bid.

I thought then that Moji Gakuen would be selected as the 2nd wild card, but the committee decided to go all rural and select Masuda Shouyou out of Shimane!

Since this was the final wild-card, all teams were in theory in play.  Realistically though, if I had to include Masuda Shouyou in the discussion, it would have been against Gosen and Moji Gakuen.  And it seemed like both had a better resume than Masuda Shouyou.  Especially if you consider name brand - just like Soujitsu (Waseda Jitsugyou).

But Gosen could have been hurt by the indirect fact that Tsuruga Kehi (whom they lost to in the Super-Regional) lost 2-1 in the final to first-timers Harue Kougyou.  This could have signaled a weaker Super-Regional and thus hurt Gosen's chances.

Moji Gakuen's loss to Nagaski Nichidai could also have been indirectly hurt because Nagasaki Nichidai lost convincingly to Shoushikan who in turn got mercy ruled by Okinawa Shougaku.

The argument loses steam though when applied to Masuda Shougyou themselves.  They lost to Iwakuni, who in turn was mercy-ruled by Kanzei in the semifinals.  Even a mercy-rule win over Hayatomo in between probably wouldn't have been of any help.

So, the question would be evaluating the three teams circumstances.  And the committee decided on Masuda Shouyou.

In the coming days, I'll review the teams that I did not cover in my previews.

But for now, the field is officially out and teams will hit the grounds preparing until the first pitch is thrown on March 22nd.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Handicapping the 21st Century Candidates

So the Super-Regional Finalists have been announced, 4 will be selected to Senbatsu - 1 from Western Japan (Kinki, Chuugoku, Shikoku, Kyushu), 1 from Eastern Japan (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, Hokushinetsu, Tokai), and 2 wild-cards.  Let's take a look at each of the nominees:

Higashi-Nihon (東日本)
Hokkaido - Engaru (Engaru-machi) - No appearances - Eliminated in semifinals of Super-Regionals
Engaru was nominated due to their volunteer work in the town, their acceptance of players of all abilities, and their many close calls to reaching Koushien.

If Engaru makes it, to me it will be one year too late.  Yes, they reached the semi-finals, but the scores indicate that they're not the team they were last year.  They were just 1 run away from going to Natsu Koushien last summer.  Alas, they were denied by Asahikawa Kougyou and their ace Matsugawa's final summer was over.

Taking over is a duo of Kamono Takaki (鴨野 崇希) and rookie Ooshiro Yuuki (大城 祐樹) with an occasional assist from Maeda Kazuki (前田 知輝).

It may be one year too late, but I'd like to see the small school make it.  They may be the front-runner to receive the Higashi-Nihon bid.


Tohoku - Iwaki Kaisei (Fukushima-ken, Iwaki-shi) - No appearances - Eliminated in Round of 16 of Fukushima prefecturals
Iwaki Kaisei has been nominated because they continued practicing after the tsunami despite their grounds being destroyed.  Despite that, they reached the round of 16.

As much as I know the JHBF wants to recognize the Tohoku area and stress repeatedly the earthquake, this nomination is a bit of a stretch.  First of all, Tohoku already has 4 teams.  2 normal invitations, the Tohoku Friendship bid, and the Meiji Jingu bid won by Sendai Ikuei.  I believe that will actually hurt Iwaki Kaisei's chances.

Also is the fact that while the round of 16 seems impressive, note that there were only 29 schools in the field this year.

As a result, I do not imagine Iwaki Kaisei receiving one of the 21st century bids.


Kanto/Tokyo - Hitachi Dai-ichi (Ibaraki-ken, Hitachi-shi) - No appearances - Eliminated in Quarterfinals of Ibaraki prefecturals
Hitachi Dai-ichi has had one Koushien appearance, back in the summer of 1985.  Here, they are being nominated for their 1st Senbatsu appearance.  They are being nominated for their work volunteering in areas affected by the Great Tohoku Earthquake.  In addition, this year they have reached the quarterfinals, with ace Kagaya Ryou (加賀屋 諒) narrowly losing 3-2 to the top seeded Kasumigaura.

If the selection committee is going to pick a team because of a link to the earthquake and tsunami, I would actually imagine it to be this one.  The committee would like to give opportunities to teams that have perhaps not been to Koushien, but at the same time would like those teams to be competitive.  Hitachi Dai-ichi could fit that criteria.


Hokushinetsu - Gosen (Niigata-ken, Gosen-shi) - No appearance - 3rd place in Niigata prefecturals, eliminated in first round of Super-Regionals
Gosen was nominated due to the help they provided in clearing snow during the winter months, as well as other volunteering efforts as well as focusing on academics.

Gosen has done well in recent years, and this year they narrowly lost to Niigata Kenou Kougyou 2-1 in the semifinals, then went to defeat Niigata Meikun to advance to the Super-Regionals where they lost to eventual runner-up Tsuruga Kehi in the bottom of the 9th inning

It's possible that Gosen gets nominated due to their performance.  All their games were decided by 2 runs or less.  They may be looked at as a team that can play up (and subsequently down) to their competition.


Tokai - Toyokawa (Aichi-ken, Toyokawa-shi) - No appearance - 2nd place in Aichi prefecturals, eliminated in first round of Super-Regionals
Toyokawa was mainly nominated due to their recent performance in the Natsu taikais as well as their active outreach in the area.

Toyokawa's performance this year included a 2-1 win over Chuukyoudai Chuukyou.  But they lost in the finals to Touhou 9-0, and collapsed late to Shizuoka 3-seed Hiryuu 5-4.

It is true that they have done well, reaching the semifinals last summer and the quarterfinals this summer.  But because of the nature of kokoyakyu, success like that does not translate to future years (see Engaru).  That's because people graduate leaving the team to fill in the gaps.

I do have some information on the ace Moriguchi Rentarou (森口 練太郎) who throws in the high 130s with a curve and two-seamer.

The fact that he has a video is a plus, but I'm a bit skeptical on their prospects still.


Nishi-Nihon (西日本)
Kinki - Shiritsu Horikawa (Kyoto-fu, Kyoto-shi) - 1 appearance - Lost in Round of 16 of Kyoto prefecturals
Horikawa has been nominated due to the fact that they reached the round of 16 despite being considered more of a top-class educational institution.

Horikawa advanced out of the regionals, but was eliminated in their first game of the prefecturals by Ritsumeikan Uji 8-7.

I cannot find any more information on that, so it's really hard to gauge based upon so little information, but I don't believe they will get a bid.


Chuugoku - Masuda Shouyou (Shimane-ken, Masuda-shi) - No appearances - Shimane Champion, eliminated in first round of Super-Regionals
Masuda Shouyou has been to Koushien before, though under one of the merged schools (Masuda Sangyou).  In 2006, they merged with Masuda Kougyou to found Masuda Shouyou.  They were nominated due to their sportsmanship throughout the fall taikai, as well as the school receiving an award in recognition of being one of the top schools for career education.

This was Masuda Shouyou's first ever Shimane fall title.  However, this title did not involve facing some of the major players out of Shimane, and rallied in the semifinals and finals to take the title.  They lost in the first round to Iwakuni, Yamaguchi's 3/4 seed 3-0.

Yanai Yuuto (柳井 祐斗) is the staff ace, though Terado Masashi (寺戸 雅) often comes in relief.

Again, there is little information that I can find right now.  Masuda Shouyou may have won their first fall title, but I don't think they'll get selected either.


Shikoku - Tosa (Kochi-ken, Kochi-shi) - 6 appearances - Kochi 3rd place, eliminated in first round of Super-Regionals
This is the 3rd consecutive time that Tosa has been nominated out of Kochi, and the 1st that they've reached the final selection stage.  They were nominated due to their strong showing in recent years - reaching at semifinal stage all but one time since 2010 (and that time they lost in the quarterfinal stage), as well as their academic focus.

For this fall, Tosa had finished 3rd in the Kochi prefecturals, losing to Kochi but beating Kochi Minami to advance to the Super-Regionals where they lost to Tokushima Shougyou in the first round.


Kyushu - Moji Gakuen (Fukuoka-ken, Kitakyushu-shi) - No appearances - Fukuoka runner-up, eliminated in 2nd round of Super-Regionals
Moji Gakuen is the merger of Moji and Moji Kita, and finally reached the Super-Regionals for the first time in 55 years.  They were nominated because of the fact that they developed shorter, more intense practices so students could focus on academics.

That Super-Regional loss was a 6-5, 13 inning loss to Nagasaki Nichidai which included Moji Gakuen scoring 4, the giving up 4 in the 10th inning.

Doi Naoki (土井 直樹) is the ace who endured all 13 innings, 4-run 10th, sayonara run and all.

The quality loss to Nagaski Nichidai in the Super-Regionals gives them probably the inside track to the Nishi-Nihon bid.


I believe the four 21st century bids will go as follows:
  • Nishi-Nihon -  Moji Gakuen (Fukuoka)
  • Higashi-Nihon - Engaru (Hokkaido)
  • Wild Card 1 - Gosen (Niigata)
  • Wild Card 2 - Tosa (Kochi)
From 2009-12, only 1 team has been selected that had not advanced out of the prefecturals - Sumoto from Kyoto.  Kyoto is one of the more competitive prefecutres, so I assume that all teams selected will have advanced to their respective Super-Regionals.

That eliminates Iwaki Kaisei and Hitachi Dai-ichi and Shiritsu Horikawa.  Iwaki Kaisei is penalized also by the fact they received an extra bid.  Shiritsu Horikawa is penalized by Kyoto having 2 teams already in the field (by my projections at least).

Of the remaining 6, Toyokawa and Masuda Shougyou have the weakest resumes, and thus we have the 4 above.

Of course, the selection committee can make it a point to emphasize the Tohoku region by selecting either Iwaki Kaisei or Hitachi Dai-ichi, but I think the Tohoku friendship bid takes care of that.  If they do, Iwaki Kaisei will go for one reason only - Seikou Gakuin has basically ruled Fukushima, and here's a chance for someone else to go.

IF Iwaki Kaisei is selected, it will sadly be Tosa who is pushed out - despite the 3 straight nominations.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Handicapping the field (Part 3)

This will highlight the last part of my projected field in the Chuugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu regions.  Again this is merely a projection and not the official list:


関西 - Kanzei (Chuugoku, Okayama, Okayama-shi) - 12th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B+
Kanzei two summers ago went all the way to the semifinals.  They spent a year rebuilding, but are back at Koushien for Senbatsu.

Interestingly, they got stronger as they went deeper into the Fall taikais.  In their 4 prefectural games, they won by a combined 14-9.  They then went on a 50-9 run in 6 games (including wins over both Jyosuikan and Kouryou) before losing 12-4 to Sendai Ikuei n the Meiji Jingu final.

Leading the way for Kanzei is ace Koyama Yuuto (児山 祐人), though I can't find any real information on him.  In fact, there is little information about Kanzei out there, despite being the fall runner-up.

If there is a weakness for Kanzei, it appears they live on the big inning.  In fact, if not for a 5-run 7th, they would have lost to Kouryou in the final.  They should be considered as one of the favorites, but if they win it will in all likelihood be a team effort.


広陵 - Kouryou (Chuugoku, Hiroshima, Hiroshima-shi) - 23rd appearance, 1st in 3 years - C+
Kouryou finds themselves at Koushien after several years off.  They finish 2nd overall, despite finishing 3rd in the prefectural taikai to Soutoku and Jyosuikan.

But the body of work is rather unimpressive - though it's not really their fault.  They only had the "quality loss" to Jyosuikan in the prefecturals, and wound up playing Soutoku and 2 Yamaguchi-ken schools in the Super-Regionals.  So despite finishing 2nd overall, the impression is that they won't advance far at Senbatsu.

Shimoishi Ryouta (下石 涼太) is their ace, with a low 140 fastball, and a change in the low 120s.  Oota Hajime (太田 創) is the other pitcher they use though he's their SS as well.  He throws in the high 130s with a curve, slider and fork.


岩国商 - Iwakuni Shougyou (Chuugoku, Yamaguchi, Iwakuni-shi) - 1st appearance - C+
Well, when you send 4 teams into the Super-Regional as the home team you hope one of them will advance to Senbatsu - especially since this year Chuugoku sends 3 teams.

Yamaguchi champion Iwakuni Shougyou becomes that team.  Once again though, their resume is rather weak.  They defeated Iwakuni and Hayatomo by a run apiece in the semis and finals, only to see Hayatomo lose 10-0 to Iwakuni then see them lose to Kanzei 11-1.  In other worse, those wins cannot be considered quality wins.

Futhermore, in the Super Regionals they played unknown Tamashima Shougyou (Okayama) and the other Yamaguchi school, Ube Kougyou before being shutout by Kouryou in the semis 2-0.  It wasn't just a shutout, they were 3-hit and RF Yokota was responsible for 2 of those 3 hits.

Takahashi Yuuta (高橋 由弥) is the ace of the staff, carries a mid 130s fastball and an identified slider.


高知 - Kochi (Shikoku, Kochi, Kochi-shi) - 17th appearance, 2nd consecutive -C+
Kochi once again will go to Senbatsu by way of winning the Shikoku Super-Regional.  They pretty much steamrolled the competition right up until the Super-Regional semifinal.

There they had to rally twice to defeat Tokushima Shougyou 11-7,  then has to scramble after giving up a 3-run lead to defeat Naruto in the final 8-6.

Sakamoto Yuuta (坂本 優太) at Meiji Jingu appears to throw in the low-mid 130s with a slider, and a curve and change in the 110s.  He generally does not pitch the entire game though, passing the ball off to rookie Sakai Yuuya (酒井 祐弥) who already throws in the 140s with the same repertoire, or captain and 3B Wada Ren (和田 恋) who can throw in the low 140s teams may be more concerned with with his bat and not his arm.

Despite all that though, and the narrow loss to Urawa Gakuin, they still need to prove something considering the drought they've had since the turn of the century having gone just 2-8.


鳴門 - Naruto (Shikoku, Tokushima, Naruto-shi) - 8th appearance, 2nd consecutive - C
For finishing 2nd in the Shikoku taikai, Naruto getting a C grade seems rather harsh.  Yes, they scored at least 5 runs in each of their games, but they also gave up at least 3 runs in each of those games too.  There were several blowouts along the way, but at the same time if they have to continuously outscore their opponents and in doing so barely beat Saibi and lose to Naruto that this type of game is not sustainable in a single-elimination format.

Bandou Yuugo (板東 湧梧) is the de facto ace tasked with minimizing the damage done to their team.

In effect, this makes Naruto a poor man's Osaka Touin.  No pitching, and a worse offense.  And that is not a good combination at all.


済美 - Saibi (Shikoku, Ehime, Matsuyama-shi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 9 years - B-
Realistically, Saibi should have been in the final.  They led Naruto 4-1 with just 3 outs to go.  But ace Anraku Tomohiro (安楽 智大) just flat collapsed.

Another super-rookie, he's already passed the 150 barrier, throwing a slider, curve and cutter.  He generates over 1.3 K/inning.  Despite this though, he's still rough around the edges.

That 4-run 9th he gave up against Naruto was not the only time he's given up runs late.  Games throughout the fall taikai were closer than they needed to be (their 4 last games were all 1-run affairs).

He's still young, and there's time to grow.  But for now they're in the same level as Yamato Kouryou, and thus earns their B- ranking.


沖縄尚学 - Okinawa Shougaku (Kyushu, Okinawa, Naha-shi) - 5th appearance, 1st in 5 years - B
They're baaaaaaack....

The last time Okishou was at Koushien, they had a pitcher by the name of Higashihama.

And we all know how that went.

#12 Ura Jyun (宇良 淳) who hits low 140s, and apparent ace Higa Kenichirou (比嘉 健一朗) are the tandem used in almost all games for Okishou. Score-wise, they didn't overwhelm the opposition.  However, the tandem severely limited the opponent offenses perhaps so that the score was not indicative of the actual play.

Offensively, Chinen Yuuya (知念 佑哉) was one of the few who had success in the only game at Meiji Jingu, going 4-5.  From that one video alone, he appears to be aware of taking the ball the other way, can get on top of a fairly high pitch, and can still get around an inside pitch.  Mind you it was against Oogushi who is not a hard thrower at all, so it has to come with some skepticism.

Also, cleanup batter Shibahiki Yuuma (柴引 佑真) was 2-4 in that same game.

The loss to Hokushou at Meiji Jingu does put a damper on their run as does the loss to Ginowan in the prefectural final.  I think they can be introduced in the discussion for contenders, but not necessarily at the top of the list.


済々黌 - Seiseikou (Kyushu, Kumamoto, Kumamoto-shi) - 4th appearance, 1st in 55 years!! - C+
I rooted for Seiseikou.  I mean, they hadn't been to Koushien in 18 years, and now here they are going to back to back Koushiens (calendar-wise).

And they really didn't disappoint.  They beat Naruto, then had a respectable 6-2 loss to eventual Haru-Natsu champs Osaka Touin.

They did manage to keep the most important part of a returning staff.  Their ace Ootake Koutarou (大竹 耕太郎) returns to lead the team.  As noted this summer, he has a fastball in the low 130's, maybe a cutter in the high 120s, and a change in the high 110s.

In their 8 victories, he gave up a grand total of 5 runs including 2 shutouts against Miyazaki Nichidai and Shoushikan.  In addition, in the loss to Okinawa Shougaku Ootake flat collapsed in the 9th inning, yielding all 5 runs in the loss.

The only real blemish is the 6-0 shutout loss to Kumamoto Kougyou.  

Still though, their margin of error is rather low.  They are not a high-scoring team, and that will limit their prospects.  They'll beat the teams they should beat, and probably lose to the teams they should.  But like the Osaka Touin game, it will be competitive.


尚志館- Shoushikan (Kyushu, Kagoshima, Shibushi-shi) - 1st appearance - C-
Shoushikan makes their debut appearance at Koushien this year thanks to a semifinal appearance in the Kyushu Super-Regional.  This run was rather impressive for a team making their first appearance.

There was the sound defeat of Kagoshima Jyousai, the 3-1 upset win over Kamimura Gakuen.  And while they lost in the prefectural final to Kagoshima Jyouhou in the final, they made up for it by defeating Saga Kita and Nagasaki Nichidai before being routed by Seiseikou.


From what I can discern, the ace of the staff is Yoshikuni Takuya (吉国 拓哉), who is reported to throw in the low 130s with a slider, but not sure what else.

It'll be nice to see them at Koushien, but they'll have to work to get out of the opening round probably.


創成館 - Souseikan (Kyushu, Nagasaki, Isahaya-shi) - 1st appearance - C-
I do not believe that Souseikan will be the Ichinoseki Gakuin of the west and get passed up again for someone like Miyzaki Nichidai, though I have been wrong many times before.

Souseikan got one benefit by not having to play the 3rd place game in the prefecturals after losing to Isahaya.  Nagasaki was hosting the Super-Regionals.  And though wins against Kagoshima Jyouhou and Kurume Shougyou are not impressive, I still think the benefit of the doubt.


Oono Takuma (大野 拓麻) is their ace, a pitcher who throws in the upper 130s with an apparent curve, slider and fork.

But their fate is probably similar to Shoushikan.  Their body of work is weaker, they are in more low-scoring games, and will probably exit in the 1st round.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Handicapping the field (Part 2)

Well, we may have had one or two title contenders in the Higashi Nihon and Hokkaido areas.  Let's start heading west and seeing who else might challenge for the title.

Again, please note that these teams have not yet been invited, but this is my best estimate on who will be invited by the committee.


春江工 - Harue Kougyou (Hokushinetsu, Fukui, Sakai-shi) - 1st appearance - B-
Harue Kougyou is a bit of an enigma.  One of the better teams out of Fukui that lives in the shadow of teams such as Fukui Shougyou, Fukui Koudai Fukui, etc., Harue Kougyou survived through the prefectural final where they were annihilated by Tsuruga Kehi.  They then fought through 4 close games (their largest margin of victory was 2!) including a revenge final against Tsuruga Kehi.  A quality win against Urawa Gakuin at Meiji Jingu was a definite plus...

...until they were whitewashed by Kanzei 10-2...

Perhaps part of their success is their backstop Kurihara Ryouya (栗原 陵矢) who has a great arm to limit the running game.

Still though, the body of work outside of the Urawa Gakuin game isn't that impressive.  I do expect a close game against weaker opponents and perhaps a win.  But I do not see them making a deep run at all.


敦賀気比- Tsuruga Kehi (Hokushinetsu, Fukui, Tsuruga-shi) - 5th appearance, 2nd consecutive - C
Tsuruga Kehi isn't as much of a mystery, but might shed some light on Harue Kougyou.  You see, Tsuruga Kehi put up double digits in 4 of their 5 games (the only one was a 1-0 win over Fukui Shougyou).  But then turn the page to the Super-Regionals, and it was all 1-run games including 2 extra inning affairs.

In other words, it speaks to how weak the Fukui prefecturals were and in turn, how weak the Super-Regionals were as well.

Kishimoto Jyunki (岸本 淳希) takes over the ace position, this probably out of necessity as his 1-inning performance at Koushien last year was one he'd like to forget.  His control problems still remain (25:13 K:BB ratio), so while he can hurl it in the low 140s with a slider, curve and sinker, it won't do him much good if he walks more than his fair share of batters.

With Tsuruga Kehi struggling in the Super-Regionals, it's hard to project them to get out of the first round. They might get our of the first round thanks to their namesake, but that's about as fortunate as they will get.


県岐阜商 - Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou (Tokai, Gifu, Gifu-shi) - 27th appearance, 1st in 18 years! - C+
This is a bit of a surprise for me.  Not that Kengifushou has reached Senbatsu... but that they haven't been here in 18 years!  But it is actually a reminder that despite this being Kengifushou's 55th appearance in Haru-Natsu Koushiens, they aren't as strong as perhaps you or I think.

Now, they did beat Oogaki Nichidai 4-0 and defeated Tokoha Kikugawa 2-1.  But while they were able to improve on an 11-1 loss to Sendai Ikuei in the National Sports Festival, they still gave up 4 runs in the 9th to lose 6-2 in the 1st round of the Meiji Jingu Tournament.

Their ace is Fujita Ryouji (藤田 凌司), who apparently is another Oogushi (see Hokushou).  Gets to 130, but not much else, and has the slow curve.  He can hit the ball though.

I give them good odds to get past the first round, but not much else.


菰野 - Komono (Tokai, Mie, Komono-shi) - 1st appearance - C
Komono, despite being at Koushien a couple of times, this is their 1st appearance.

This despite having a secret ace in Urashima Souta (浦嶌 颯太).  He was never used in the fall, but can apparently hit 150 on the gun, with a standard slider and curve.

Instead it was ace Yamanaka Satoshi (山中 亨悟) who carried the team.  Though I can find no information on him other than the video.

Without much to go with, the body of work is a bit weak.  They happened to face Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou before facing Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou and losing.  They might have a chance to advance out of the first round, but it'll be tough.


常葉菊川 - Tokoha Kikugawa (Tokai, Shizuoka, Kikugawa-shi) - 4th appearance, 1st in 5 years - C
Man, when I first really started watching Koushien, it was when Tokoha Kikugawa seemed to make the impossible happen.

It was Senbatsu 2007, and Tokoha Kikugawa started off by defeating Sendai Ikuei 2-1.  Then they defeated Imabari Nishi (whom I had watched in person the prior summer) 10-0!  They wouldn't leave it there as down 1-0 to Osaka Touin in the quarterfinals they scored a run in the 8th and the 9th for the gyakuten win!

Oh, and then was the scrappy Kumamoto Kougyou squad.  Again down 4-3 with just 3 outs to go, they scored 3 for another comeback win.  And to put the cherry on top, down once again 5-3 in the finals to Oogaki Nichidai, they scored 3 to win their 1st title in just their 2nd attempt.

They put together 2 strong runs at Natsu Koushien after that, and cemented themselves a place in my mind and heart.

But after 2008, they disappeared.  Sure they made runs at the title (and they were even denied in the final in 2010 by their sister school Tokoha Tachibana!) but we haven't seen them since.

There are shades of that 2007 team in this team.  In the semifinals, they rallied not once but twice against Hiryuu to win 7-6.  They advanced to the Super-Regional despite a 14-1 loss in the final to Shizuoka.  And against Touhou, they let a lead slip before reasserting themselves in a 6-4 win.  This before giving up the sayonara run to Kengifushou in the semifinal.

I'll be glad when I hear their name called as one of the members in the 85th Senbatsu field.  But I'll treasure the time they're there though as I don't seem them lasting long, sadly.

Their ace is Horita Tatsuya (堀田 竜也), but I don't have much else on him other than that.


京都翔英 - Kyoto Shouei (Kinki, Kyoto, Uji-shi) - 1st appearance - B
Kyoto Shouei's ace is well, not?

Enomoto Kazuki (榎本 和輝) as seen in the first link against Ryuukokudai Heian wears the #3 jersey, yet was the predominant pitcher for the club.

But then in the 2nd clip, he starts against Hokushou in the Meiji Jingu tournament wearing #18, a number meant for relievers?!  Futhermore, he appears to have a bat to boot, so why doesn't he wear a starting number, much less the ace if he starts?

The only reason might be that he throws only in the high 130s with a curve, slider and fork.  But still, aces have been chosen on good teams for less than that.

Kyoto Shouei is a bit of an engima.  You see, the school was established in 1984, and had not experienced success as a team until 2010 when they lost to Kyoto Gaidai Nishi in the prefectural finals for Natsu Koushien.  Then they fell back into anonymity.

Then this fall, they go on a rampage, defeating the aforementioned Kyoto Gaidai Nishi, Kyoto Subaru, Fukuchiyama Seibi, Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku, Riseisha, Ryuukokudai Heian and Houtoku Gakuen before losing 3-1 to Hokushou at the Meiji Jingu tournament.

The games that Kyoto Shouei have been involved in have been mostly low-scoring affairs, but to limit the majority of these teams to a handful of runs is impressive.  They may certainly have the ability to make a deep run, but being first-timers is a big wild card.


報徳学園 - Houtoku Gakuen (Kinki, Hyogo, Nishinomiya-shi) - 19th appearance, 1st in 2 years - B+
Houtoku took one year off in 2012, but has come back thanks to ace Inui Ryouhei (乾 陽平).  The gun in the video has him in the high 130s, and just touching 140.  He has the standard slider and curve.

And even though he lost out to Enomoto and Kyoto Shouei in 12 innings, he also has a list of teams he left in his wake - Touyoudai Himeji, Kansei Gakuin, Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku, Fukuchiyama Seibi, and Osaka Touin (throwing a 7-inning 1-hitter no less!).

Of course, don't underestimate the power of home field advantage.  They're always a stone's throw away from Koushien Stadium, and they have a great fan base.  Combine that with the school's experience, and they stand to be one of the teams in the discussion when you talk about potential winners.


龍谷大平安 - Ryuukokudai Heian (Kinki, Kyoto, Kyoto-shi) - 37th appearance, 1st in 5 years - B-
Heian once again pokes its head into Koushien.  They've had a winning drought as of late, but get in thanks to wins against Chiben Wakayama and Yamato Kouryou.

Fukuoka Takumi (福岡 拓弥) started most of their games, outside of the game in the Super-Regional against Kyoto Shouei (perhaps to hide him for later?).  But other than that I have nothing else about him to report.

There are a lot of low scoring close affairs for Heian.  But, they've shown they can play the high scoring game if need be, which certainly helps.

But I don't have a lot to go on to analyze the team.  Given their performance at Natsu Koushien and their loss of most of their starting 9, they probably won't go far outside of a favorable draw.


大阪桐蔭 - Osaka Touin (Kinki, Osaka, Daitou-shi) - 6th appearance, 2nd consecutive - B+
Osaka Touin continues to chug along.  Yes, they lost Fujinami as the ace, but the offense continues to chug along.

How much?  In their 9 victories in the fall taikais, their combined scoring was 99-16, with their smallest margin being 5 runs against Uenomiya Taishi!

Mori Tomoya (森 友哉) returns as the lynchpin of the Touin offense.  And apparently, he hasn't missed a beat.  I'm still searching for actual statistics, but from the video, he continues to contribute on offense.  Plus, as the game caller he'll help the new aces.

3B Kasamatsu Yuuya (笠松 悠哉) also returns to help out Mori on the field.  Not necessarily a power hitter, he makes good contact and can get on base.

Joining them is new 1B Kinden Takuya (近田 拓矢) who was the backup last summer (#13), and SS Mizutani Yukiya (水谷 友生也) who was the backup middle infielder (#14).

Kuzugawa Tomoya (葛川 知哉) appears to have taken over as the ace of the staff.  Orginally given #9, he has taken over as #1 with a 145 kph fastball.  Before then, it appeared that Takanishi Ryouta (高西 涼太, formerly #18) had inherited the ace number.  He threw in the low-mid 140s with a good change, and a slider and curve.
The problem with Osaka Touin is that in their two losses, they fell to Riseisha in the Osaka final 3-1, then were 1 hit by Houtoku Gakuen 8-0 in a 7 inning game!

Those 2 games give me pause, especially the Houtoku Gakuen game.  To have the offense completely shut down, and the pitching give up 8 runs is a red flag.  However, it's only one game and perhaps it's not as serious, but at Senbatsu you cannot afford a bad game... unless you get lucky.  You cannot count them out to win their 3rd calendar Koushien title, but whenever you lose an ace it makes the job that much more difficult.


履正社 - Riseisha (Kinki, Osaka, Toyonaka-shi) - 5th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B-
Riseisha suffers from the fact that (a) they're in a big prefecture as Osaka, and (b) the road to the Osaka title goes through Osaka Touin.

That's why they're making their 3rd straight Senbatsu appearance.  They don't have to win the Osaka title to advance, which gives them a chance to receive and invitation.

This year though they did win the Osaka title, defeating Osaka Touin, and advanced to the quarterfinals where they lost to Kyoto Seishou, 3-1 in 12 innings.

Higashino Ryuuji (東野 龍二), who wore #17 at Senbatsu last year and started both games, becomes the true ace this time around.  From last spring, Higashino has a fastball that touches 130 and a slider in the high 110s and a fork in the low-mid 110s.

Riseisha's problem may be their offense.  Despite outscoring their opponents 60-5 in their games before the Osaka final, none were against established competition.  After that, in their next 3 games, they barely outscored their opposition 5-4:
  • 3-1 against Osaka Touin
  • 1-0 against Kansei Gakuin
  • 1-3 loss to Kyoto Seishou
The Osaka Touin win is definitely impressive.  But scoring 1 against Kansei Gakuin, then losing to relative unknown Kyoto Seishou (despite them winning the Super-Regional) suggests they will struggle to score runs at Senbatsu.


大和広陵 - Yamato Kouryou (Kinki, Nara, Kouryou-machi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 28 years - B-
Yamato Kouryou will get in ahead of Tenri because they have something that Tenri hasn't had for a while... a staff ace.

Tachita Shouta (立田 将太) is a super rookie who is *pinches fingers* this close to hitting 150.  Not only that, but he apparently already has a slider, curve, and forkball to go along with it.

Here's the thing, as perhaps a strategic move for the summer, Yamato Kouryou did not start Tachita against Tenri in the prefectural final.  So he wasn't responsible for the 5-1 loss.  Furthermore, he gave up just 2 runs in a 2-0 loss to Ryuukokudai Heian.  Sure, they aren't an offensive powerhouse, but it's still solid nonetheless.

The problem is offense.  They will be subject to low scoring games, and in a single-elimination format, that is a big problem.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Handicapping the field (Part 1)

All right, we're approaching the end of the calendar year, and it's about time I started handicapping the projected field for the 85th Senbatsu.

北照 - Hokushou (Hokkaido, Otaru-shi) - 5th overall, 2nd consecutive - B-
Hokushou reaches Senbatsu for yet another time.  But there was no dominance throughout the prefecturals, and barely got by some of the stronger teams in the prefecture.

A hard fought 5-3 win over Sapporo Nichidai, they almost let a 7-1 lead over Engaru slip away in the semifinals, then battled with the resurging Komadai Tomakomai, barely taking the title 7-5.

Oogushi Kazuya (大串 和弥), who lead the team at Senbatsu last year, does the same again this year.  Thanks to the new video, his fastball according to the Meiji Jingu gun has reached the 130 mark, but the slider and curve still sit in the 110s and 100s respectively - which leads to a lot of contact, a lot of pulled balls, and a K every 3 innings.

Hokushou has done good to reach their 2nd straight Senbatsu, but that's all they will get.  Teams from Hokkaido do not generally fare well, and Hokushou looks like a team that is weaker then the average entrant.


仙台育英 - Sendai Ikuei (Tohoku, Miyagi, Sendai-shi) - 10th appearance, 1st in 6 years - A-
Sendai Ikuei not only won the Tohoku Super-Regional, but the Meiji Jingu tournament - giving their area 4 teams to Senbatsu this year.  And they have some unfinished business to attend to.

Last summer, in the block final, they fell to Sakushin Gakuin 3-2.

They've changed tacks, and this time around there is easily one word to describe Sendai Ikuei - offense.

In their 11 games this fall, they have outscored their opponents 88-20.  Two players to potentially watch for is CF Uebayashi Seiji (上林 誠知) and LF Hasegawa Yuta (長谷川 寛)

But offense alone cannot get you a championship title.  You need to have strong enough pitching as well to earn the title.  Even my rival Sanko in 2011 had Yoshinaga, who was wild but effective.

Sendai Ikuei doesn't have that.  They generally use a tandem of #10 Baba Kousuke (馬場 皐輔) and #1 Suzuki Takato (鈴木 天斗).

Both appear to throw in the 130's, so it'll be all down to control for them to be successful.  They don't have to be great, they just have to manage the game.

For that alone, they only get an A- instead of the A or A+ they might get as a favorite.


聖光学院 - Seikou Gakuin (Tohoku, Fukushima, Koori-machi) - 4th appearance, 2nd consecutive - B
Seikou Gakuin has been a staple of Natsu Koushien as the representative of Fukushima.  This is just their 4th Senbatsu appearance though.

1B Sonobe Satoshi (園部 聡) has to be the lynchpin of the Seikou offense.  Last summer, he was 3-6 with a HR and 4 RBIs.  Before him, Yaoita Hyuuma (八百板 飛馬) didn't fare badly himself in the Super-Regional semifinals and finals.

Seikou Gakuin's MO hasn't changed.  They take care of business when they're supposed to, but stumble when facing quality competition.  The 5-4 win over Moriokadai Fuzoku and the 8-4 loss to Sendai Ikuei (which wasn't as close) highlight this.

Chances are they'll do what they've normally done so long as they don't face a hard matchup right off the bat.  Win one, then be done.


盛岡大付属 - Moriokadai Fuzoku (Tohoku Memorial Bid, Iwate, Morioka-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 2 years - C-
Moriokadai Fuzoku has done well to reach Koushien over the last decade+.  But while they have had success getting there, they are 0-9 in Koushien games (both Haru and Natsu).

Matsumoto Hiroki (松本 裕樹) is a first year who has succeeded the ace position at Moriokadai.  He throws in the low 140s with a curveball discovered as of now.

This fall, it was a bunch of low scoring games.  A 4-3 nail-biter against oft-spurned Ichinoseki Gakuin, and a 5-4 loss to Seikou Gakuin in the semis after holding a 4-1 lead are the notable games.  Yes, there was a 4-2 win over Tohoku along the way, but they don't seem to be the same team in the last couple of years.

Given their close games in the prefectural and the super-regionals, Moriokadai Fuzoku probably did just enough to get in, but will probably go to 0-10 in Koushien games.


青森山田 - Aomori Yamada (Tohoku Meiji Jingu Bid, Aomori, Aomori-shi) - 2nd appearance, 1st in 8 years - C
I expect Aomori Yamada to get the final bid out of Tohoku instead of Sakata Minami based on their mutual performances against Sendai Ikuei.

It'll be a welcome return after several years off.  Remember Kousei Gakuin had taken over as not only the best in the prefecture, but 3 times 1 game short of being the best team in the country.

This fall though, Kousei's run appears to be over.  They fell 6-5 to Aomori Yamada in the prefectural semi, then was mercy ruled by Sakata Minami.

So Aomori Yamada steps back in to fill the gap, and doesn't miss a beat earning a trip to Koushien.

Looking at the scores though, it appears that their success hides a problem - that they could possibly play to their competition.  Whether they're strong or weak, they play up or down to their level.  It'll make for close games and maybe an upset, but asking to win a lot of close games is a bit much.


浦和学院 - Urawa Gakuin (Kanto ex/Tokyo, Saitama, Saitama-shi) - 9th appearance, 3rd consecutive - B
Urawa Gakuin too got as far as Sendai Ikuei, and in fact was eliminated on the same day last summer.

And while they almost stumbled against Ageo in the Saitama quartefinals, they revenged their loss the prefectural final to Hanasaki Tokuharu and then defeated them in the Super-Regional final.

However, at Meiji Jingu, they had 2 close games against Kochi and Harue Kougyou - two teams not really known as 高校野球 powerhouses.

While Yamaguchi Rui (山口 瑠偉), a 2nd year who throws in the low 140s with a slider, curve and fork, had the inside track when he started in place of Satou last Natsu Koushien, his struggles - and #14 Ojima Kazuya's (小島 和哉) success against Tenri meant that it was Ojima, not Yamaguchi that was promoted to the ace position.  He throws a slider, change and curve but his fastball goes only in the 130s.

They will not be able to consistently overpower teams, so the pitching will have to carry them.  But given their staff, it's hard to say that they will be able to do that.


花咲徳栄 - Hanasaki Tokuharu (Kanto ex/Tokyo, Saitama, Kazo-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 3 years - B-
Hanasaki Tokuharu returns to Senbatsu after a small time off.  As mentioned earlier, Hanasaki Tokuharu and Urawa Gakuin pretty much paralleled themselves as they met in the prefectural and Super-Regional final.  They did however have what appears to be quality wins against Narashino (12-0!) and Yokohama Hayato.

But in looking for players, they don't have any named pitchers out there, just a catcher named Wakatsuki Kenya (若月 健矢).

They perhaps should be on level for Urawa Gakuin, but there's probably a bit to prove still for them.


常総学院 - Jyousou Gakuin (Kanto ex/Tokyo, Ibaraki, Tsuchiura-shi) - 7th appearance, 1st in 8 years - C
宇都宮商 - Utsunomiya Shougyou (Kanto ex/Tokyo, Tochigi, Utsunomiya-shi) - 3rd appearance, 1st in 34 years - C-
I can't really find anything about Jyousou Gakuin and Utsunomiya Shougyou other than their results, and their ace pitchers Iida Harumi (飯田 晴海) for Jyousou Gakuin and some highlights of Utsunomiya Shougyou against Hikawa (see 5:15).  What's interesting about the Utsunomiya video is that it highlighted the two pitchers they predominantly used, #18 Shibayama Kauzhiro (柴山和博), and #8 Iioka Kenta (飯岡 健太). Neither is their ace number!  Instead Arai Ryou (新井 諒) plays center and bats cleanup.

And both did about the same, struggling in the Super-Regional quarterfinals before falling in the next round.

They'll both be glad to have made it to Senbatsu, but I don't imagine them getting out of the first round.


安田学園 - Yasuda Gakuen (Tokyo, Sumida-ku) - 1st appearance - B
Yasuda Gakuen earns their first ever appearance gritting out some wins against Kokushikan, Nittai Ebara and Waseda Jitsugyou.  The 3-2 loss to Kanzei in the Meiji Jingu Tournament give some credibility to their run this fall.

The only player of note is C Takami Shunsuke (深見 俊介) who apparently has gotten attention for his quick throw to 2nd base.  If he can keep that up, he can prevent teams from running and perhaps help out the offense in not having to score as many runs.


早稲田実 - Waseda Jitsugyou (Tokyo, Kokubunji-shi) - 20th appearance, 1st in 3 years - B
Soujitsu should make it now by name brand.  Though if one were to look at their road to the final, there is nothing outside of the 11-5 win over Souka before their loss to Yasuda Gakuen.

Oddly it was #12 Nishiyama Ryou (西山諒) that Soujitsu mainly depended upon to reach the final. 

Their name may get them an extra game if they face an inexperienced opponent - hence an upgrade from a B- to a B, but asking them to win it all this time around may be a bit much to ask.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Sendai Ikuei wins 4th bid for Tohoku!

Sendai Ikuei defeats Kanzei 12-4 thanks to a 9-run 3rd inning, which means that Tohoku will indeed get 4 teams into Senbatsu next spring.

As I project, Moriokadai Fuzoku will be guaranteed a bid based on performance (I think the Meiji Jingu bid supersedes the Tohoku Memorial bid).

The question will be who will get the 4th and final bid.  Sakata Minami is the other semifinalist, but a 10-1 loss to Sendai Ikuei hurts.  Ironically, the great performance by Sendai Ikuei in the Meiji Jingu tournament may give Sakata Minami the benefit of the doubt.

The other team considered could be Aomori Yamada.  They actually were leading Sendai Ikuei 3-1 going into the 9th during their quarterfinal, but gave up 4 runs to lose 5-3.

It has been a while since we've seen Aomori Yamada in the tournament, so it might be possible that they skip over to select them with the Tohoku Memorial bid.

Meiji Jingu Tournament Update ~ to the finals!

The championship game of the Meiji Jingu tournament is today and while one side may be favored to win, in terms of quality of team invited due to the bid, it may be better off that the other team wins!

Day 1
Kyoto Shouei (Kinki - Kyoto) vs. Hokushou (Hokkaido - Otaru-shi)
Kyoto Shouei actually was fortunate to draw Hokushou.  While a familiar face in 高校野球, they're not a dominating force as other teams.  So they stood a chance in the opening matchup.

And in fact, they scored right off the bat in the top of the 1st!

But Hokushou ace Oogushi Kazuya (大串 和弥) would shut the door afterwards, giving up just 7 hits in a complete game effort.

Meanwhile, Domon would hit a sac fly to tie the game in the 4th and last batter Nishitani would hit a 2-run double off of Enomoto to give them the lead for good.


Urawa Gakuin (Kanto - Saitama) vs. Kochi (Shikoku - Kochi)
Though Kasumigaura's hopes took a big hit with the draw, Urawa Gakuin faced a favorable draw in Kochi.

The game still was close.  Urawa would inch away to a 2-0 lead after their first 2 innings, only to see Kochi do the same 2 innings later to tie the game.  But back to back timely hits by Nie and Yamane would give Urawa Gakuin back the 2-run lead.

Urawa ace Kojima was not on his game today, but despite giving up 7 hits and 8 free passes he holds on for the 4-3 win.

By the way, 4 of those hits went to cleanup batter Wada Koi (和田 恋) who was 4-4 on the day with a walk.


Day 2
Sendai Ikuei (Tohoku - Miyagi) vs. Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou (Tokai - Gifu)
Sendai Ikuei had a good matchup in their attempt to send 4 teams to the 85th Haru Koushien.  Kengifushou is no slouch, but is no powerhouse either.

Sendai Ikuei took a 2-1 lead in the second thanks to hits by Mima and Katou.  But Kengifushou's ace Fujita would tie the game with a solo HR in the 7th.  He'd try to keep the Ikuei offense down, but in the top of the 9th with the pitch count over 100, he gave up a 3-run HR to 2B Sasaki (who actually had started the game on the bench!).  They'd add one more run as reliever Baba would shut the door in the 9th.


Kanzei (Chuugoku - Okayama) vs. Yasuda Gakuen (Tokyo - Sumida-ku)
Though they could have easily taken the Chuo-sen there, I'm pretty sure Yasuda Gakuen still bussed over to the game at Meiji Jingu.  This is home turf after all.

They'd need every ounce of it as Kanzei occupied the opposing dugout.

But Yasuda opened the scoring with a sac fly from Takami in the 1st inning.  Kanzei's #9 batter Uraki would tie the game in the 5th and it would stay that way until the 8th.  Umeno would give Kanzei the lead in the 8th, only to see Takami come through again to tie the game.

Kanzei ace Kayama would end it in regulation with his only hit in the 9th, breaking the tie then closing it out to win 3-2.


Day 3
Okinawa Shougaku (Kyushu - Okinawa) vs. Hokushou (Hokkaido - Otaru-shi)
Hokushou certainly was not looking forward to facing Okishou.  Home to former ace Higashihama, they looked really solid throughout the Kyushu Super-Regionals.

The game though played out very close.  Naka Shouji (名嘉昇司) would open the scoring for Okinawa Shougaku in the 3rd, only to have Igarashi execute a suicide squeeze in their half of the inning to tie the game.

It would stay that way as Okishou starter Higa yielded to Ura in the 7th.  Oogushi would continue to pitch for Hokushou (eventually throwing 141 pitches in all).

Instead, he'd decide to end the game himself in the bottom of the 9th in dramatic fashion, hitting a sayonara homerun off of Ura to advance his team to the semifinals.


Urawa Gakuin (Kanto - Saitama) vs. Harue Kougyou (Hokushinetsu - Fukui)
Harue Kougyou must've been thrilled that they not only advanced out of the Fukui prefecturals, but won the Super-Regionals and will go to Koushien this spring.

But there's still more work to be done in perhaps getting their region one more team into the field.

To do that, they'd have to start with a tough matchup against Urawa Gakuin.

It didn't look good early though...

Takada and Saitou for Urawa would deliver RBI hits to give them a 3-0 lead in the 1st inning.  Nie would then deliver a squeeze bunt and Yamane would hit a double to make it 5-0.

However, Urawa starter Wakumoto would collapse in the 2nd giving back all 5 runs.  Watanabe, who would relieve him wouldn't fare any better in the 3rd retiring just 1 batter but charged with 2 runs.  Itou would eventually stop the bleeding and give 2 innings of scoreless ball.

Takada would get them within 1 with a RBI triple in the 4th, but Tsuboda would settle down after that.  Seki would deliver an infield RBI hit to get to the final score of 8-6!!

Day 4 - Semifinals
Sendai Ikuei (Tohoku - Miyagi) vs. Hokushou (Hokkaido - Otaru-shi)
Oogushi would have to be called on again as their team would face a strong Sendai Ikuei squad.

Sendai Ikuei for their part decided to start Baba Kousuke (馬場 皐輔).  It was the right call as he shut down the Hokkaido representatives.

Oogushi, despite this being his 3rd game pitched very well, but wound up making 2 crucial mistakes.  First was in the 3rd, giving up a 3-run HR to Kobayashi.  Second was in the 7th when the bases would be loaded for cleanup hitter Uebayashi and he wouldn't miss, hitting a manrui homerun to effectively knock Oogushi out of the game.

That would be more than enough to advance to the finals and give Tohoku another team into Koushien.


Kanzei (Chuugoku - Okayama) vs. Harue Kougyou (Hokushinetsu - Fukui)
Harue Kougyou found themselves just one game away from the fall title and giving the Hokushinetsu region another bid.

Kanzei though would have none of it.

Thanks to an error right off the bat, Kanzei would put up 4 runs in the top of the 1st.  Harue ace Tsubota would stay in the game, but would slowly give up more runs, capped off in the 7th with another 4 runs.  Harue would be mercy ruled 10-2 in 7 innings.


Day 5 (Today) - Championship
So it'll be Tohoku champion Sendai Ikuei versus Chuugoku champ Kanzei...

In Kanzei's corner will be Iwakuni, who in all likelihood will be receiving the bid if Kanzei wins.  Sakata Minami and Aomori Yamada will be backing Sendai Ikuei as it's possible either team could receive a bid depending on the selection committee's analysis.

Kanzei probably has the inside track to the title, but I expect Sendai Ikuei to try and make it close.

Friday, November 9, 2012

Projected 85th Haru Koushien Field

With 36 teams invited, and four 21st century teams and the Meiji Jingu bid still outstanding, there are 31 bids up for grabs.  My projected field is as follows:

Hokkaido
  • Hokushou
Tohoku
  • Sendai Ikuei (Miyagi)
  • Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima)
  • Moriokadai Fuzoku (Iwate)
Kanto
  • Urawa Gakuin (Saitama)
  • Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama)
  • Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki)
  • Utsunomiya Shougyou (Tochigi)
Tokyo
  • Yasuda Gakuen
  • Waseda Jitsugyou
Hokushinetsu
  • Harue Kougyou (Fukui)
  • Tsuruga Kehi (Fukui)
Tokai
  • Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou (Gifu)
  • Komono (Mie)
  • Tokoha Kikugawa (Shizuoka)
Kinki
  • Kyoto Shouei (Kyoto)
  • Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo)
  • Ryuukokudai Heian (Kyoto)
  • Osaka Touin (Osaka)
  • Riseisha (Osaka)
  • Yamato Kouryou (Nara)
Chuugoku
  • Kanzei (Okinawa)
  • Kouryou (Hiroshima)
  • Iwakuni Shougyou (Yamaguchi)
Shikoku
  • Kochi (Kochi)
  • Naruto (Tokushima)
  • Saibi (Ehime)
Kyushu
  • Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa)
  • Seiseikou (Kumamoto)
  • Shoushikan (Kagoshima)
  • Souseikan (Nagasaki)
The field would appear to be filled with very familiar squads with a couple of newcomers sprinkled in.  Should be interesting for sure.

Over the next couple of months I will be covering key players to watch for.

Meiji Jingu Tournament and that final crucial bid

With the Super-Regional champions determined, the draw for the 43rd Meiji Jingu Tournament is out, and is as follows:
  • Sendai Ikuei (Tohoku) vs. Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou (Tokai)
  • Okinawa Shougaku (Okinawa) vs. Hokushou (Hokkaido)-Kyoto Shouei (Kinki) winner
  • Harue Kougyou (Hokushinetsu) vs. Urawa Gakuin (Kanto)-Kochi (Shikoku) winner
  • Yasuda Gakuen (Tokyo) vs. Kanzei (Chuugoku)
Kyoto Shouei will have to prove themselves again having to come from the depths of the bracket and a matchup with Okishou in the 2nd round!

For Kasumigaura, having Urawa Gakuin and Yasuda Gakuen in the same half of the bracket is not a good thing at all.  Not to mention the fact that Kanzei resides in that half as well.  Yasuda Gakuen is immediately in danger and Urawa Gakuin would be next in the semifinals.

I would expect the winner to be between Okinawa Shougaku and Kanzei with Kyoto Shouei and Urawa Gakuin as wildcards.

And here's the list of teams that may be rooting hard for their Super-Regional representative:
  • Hokkaido - Komadai Tomakomai
  • Tohoku - Sakata Minami/Aomori Yamada (Sakata Minami went further, but their blowout loss is a negative)
  • Kanto/Tokyo - Kasumigaura (Kanto wins bid, Kasumigaura is in.  Tokyo wins it, Soujitsu takes the Meiji Jingu bid and floating bid goes to Kanto.)
  • Hokushinetsu - Ueda Nishi/Niigata Meikun (Ueda Nishi should go, but Niigata Meikun has name recognition)
  • Tokai - Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou
  • Kinki - Yamato Kouryou/Tenri (Yamato Kouryou seemed to outperform Tenri and may have earned the 6th bid, but name recognition might give it to Tenri anyways leaving Yamato Kouryou hoping for the Meiji Jingu bid.)
  • Chuugoku - Iwakuni
  • Shikoku - Tokushima Shougyou
  • Kyushu - Kumamoto Kougyou/Souseikan (Souseikan wasn't the only team blown out in the semifinals, but the lack of quality games beforehand might hurt them in the selection process.)

Fall Taikai Update - Super-Regional Completion

All Super-Regionals are now complete, and there are a couple of surprises mixed in with some of the usual suspects:

Tokyo (1 bid + 1 floating with Kanto)
  • Champion - Yasuda Gakuen - Sumida-ku (First title!)
  • Floating Bid - Waseda Jitsugyou
 As expected, the Yasuda Gakuen-Nittai Ebara game was an all-out war.

Nittai Ebara fired the opening salvo in the bottom of the 1st as Tomosato hit a 2-run HR to left.  Back-to-back RBI hits by the battery of Kasahara and Minami no less made it a 4-1 game.  And then ace Kasahara in his next AB would hit a home run of his own making it 5-1!

But after back-to-back walks by Kasahara, Motohashi-kantoku would replace him with Furukawa.  Much to his dismay, Furukawa would hit cleanup batter Takami Shunsuke (深見 俊介) and then give an oshidashi walk to Koyama Shinjirou (小山 新次郎).  He'd get out of the inning, but not after yielding another run to make it 5-3.

Things only got worse for Nittai Ebara as the pitching fell apart the very next inning as Yasuda would put a 5-spot on the board taking an 8-6 lead.

Nittai Ebara would mount a rally in the bottom of the 9th.  PH Seki would walk, and Tanaka would hit a double to put the tying run in scoring position with just one down.  Minami (now pitching) would hit a sac fly to make it a 1-run game.

That brought up Tomosato, who was 4-4 on the day.  But Oogane Shintarou (大金真太郎) would finally retire him with a grounder to 2nd to end the game and give his team a chance at Senbatsu!

In the other semifinal Souka ace Uchino collapsed in the 5th inning, giving up 6 runs to Soujitsu.  Those 6 runs would wind up being the final margin as they won 11-5.

So Soujitsu would be a likely candidate for the floating bid should they lose (as long as they had a good showing), while Yasuda Gakuen would in all likelihood need to win to get in.

In the 2nd inning of the final, Yasuda gets the benefit of good luck.  Takami would reach 2nd on an error by Soujitsu's LF Suzuki.  After a bunt and walk, Motomiya Keita (本宮 佳汰) would lay down a successful safety squeeze to give them the first run.  They'd continue to press the initiative as Koyama Takuya (小山 拓哉) would try to steal 3rd.  But the throw from Toshimitsu Kensaku (利光健作) would actually hit Takuya on the helmet and deflect into left, allowing him to score making it 2-0.

Toshimitsu would get a run back with a HR in the 5th, but that would be all the scoring they could muster as Oogane would shut Soujitsu down to earn Yasuda Gakuen's first ever title!


Kanto ex Tokyo (4 bids + 1 floating with Tokyo)
  • Champion - Urawa Gakuin - Saitama-shi, Saitama (3rd consecutive title!, 4th overall)
  • Runner-Up - Hanasaki Tokuharu - Kazo-shi, Saitama
  • Semifinalist - Jyousou Gakuin - Tsuchiura-shi, Ibaraki
  • Semifinalist - Utsunomiya Shougyou - Utsunomiya-shi, Tochigi
*No other teams probable to be considered

So when the draw came out, the 4 brackets were as follows (A & B, C & D)
  • A - Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki 1) vs. Takasaki Kenkoudai Fukushi (Gunma 2)
  • A - Sano Nichidai (Tochigi 1) vs. Toukaidai Koufu (Kofu 1)
  • B - Narashino (Chiba 1) vs. Kiryuu Dai-ichi (Gunma 3)
  • B - Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama 1) vs. Yokohama Hayato (Kanagawa 2)
  • C - Toukaidai Sagami (Kanagawa 1) vs. Kasumigaura (Ibaraki 2)
  • C - Hikawa (Yamanashi 1) vs. Utsunomiya Shougyou (Tochigi 2)
  • D - Urawa Gakuin (Saitama 2) vs. Choushi Shougyou (Chiba 2)
  • D - Maebashi Ikuei (Gunma 1) - Bye
Right off the bat there were a couple of surprises.  Kendai had a relative poor showing against Jyousou Gakuin, losing 5-2.  Yokohama Hayato stumbled out of the blocks immediately going down 6-0.  They'd rally, but lose 7-5.

The biggest upset was in block C where Kasumigaura (while not a slouch by any means) never trailed and defeated Toukaidai Sagami 5-3!

The quarterfinals went more scratch.  Narashino, who barely got by Kiryuu Dai-ichi, suffered the same problems Yokohama Hayato faced, but were unable to rally at all, getting mercy ruled 12-0 in 6 innings! (awww....)

Sano Nichidai, down 5-0 to Jyousou Gakuin gets all of the runs back in the lucky 7 to send the game into enchousen.  However, outside of that one inning outburst, they couldn't muster any other offense and lost 6-5 in 12.  Kasumigaura tried to continue their cinderella run as it were, but after taking the 4-2 lead in the bottom of the 6th, relinquished it right back in the lucky 7 to Utusunomiya Shougyou, losing 5-4.

The games (final score-wise) were much closer, but were not competitive.  Both Saitama schools advanced wire-to-wire, setting up a rematch of the prefectural final.  In that final, a 4-run first gave Hanasaki Tokuharu all the cushion it needed.

This time around they did not get such a cushion, but did lead 2-0 going into the latter innings.  But without the cushion, Urawa Gakuin's rally allowed them to tie the game in the 8th and send it into enchousen.  One inning later, Urawa's SS Kigure Naito (木暮騎士) would hit a 2-out double to put runners at 2nd and 3rd.  After an intentional walk, C Nishikawa Genki (西川元気) would deliver the sayonara hit to give Urawa Gakuin their 3rd straight Kanto Fall title!!

With 4 bids, it seems apparent that the Best 4 participants will get the bids.  Kasumigaura, the strongest team of the quarterfinalists will probably not get in because (a) the team they would replace would probably be Utsunomiya Shougyou who defeated them and (b) even if they wanted to make Kasumigaura the 4th team that would put 2 teams from Saitama and from Ibaraki into Senbatsu, which is highly doubtful.

And with Soujitsu losing in the finals to Yasuda Gakuen, the committee will certainly pick them as the floating bid.  Had they won, the floating bid may have come back to Kanto.

As it stands, for Kasumigaura to get to Koushien, Yasuda Gakuen or Urawa Gakuin have to win the Meiji Jingu Fall Tournament (If Yasuda Gakuen wins, Soujitsu earns the Meiji Jingu bid and the floating bid shifts back to Kanto.  If Urawa Gakuin wins, Kasumigaura earns the Meiji Jingu bid outright).  But as you will see later, that will be difficult.

Tokai (3 bids)
  • Champion - Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou - Gifu-shi, Gifu (4th title, 1st in 51 years)
  • Runner-up - Komono - Komono-machi, Mie
  • 3rd Bid - Tokoha Kikugawa - Kikugawa-shi, Shizuoka
The issue of the all-Gifu Shougyou final was averted in the first game when Komono placed an 8-spot in the 4th to mercy-rule Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou 10-2 in 7 innings.

And in fact, there was a possibility that neither team would make it as Tokoha Kikugawa had tied the game at 1 in the 8th.  Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou though would guarantee that at least one team would make it, making a Tokoha-style finish in the bottom of the 9th to win 2-1.

Komono had done well to make it to the finals, but were boat-raced by Kengifushou falling quickly behind 6-0 and losing 9-3.

This normally would put Komono in a bad situation.  As the runner-up, they are first in line to receive the 2nd bid.  However, the poor showing would have given the selection committee pause.  But with 3 teams advancing, they should be safe.


Kinki (6 bids)
  • Champion - Kyoto Shouei - Uji-shi, Kyoto (First title!)
  • Runner-up - Houtoku Gakuen - Nishinomiya-shi, Hyogo
  • Semi-finalist -Ryuukokudai Heian - Shimogyo-ku, Kyoto-shi, Kyoto
  • Semi-finalist - Osaka Touin - Daitou-shi, Osaka
  • 5/6 selection - Riseisha - Toyonaka-shi, Osaka
  • 5/6 selection - Yamato Kouryou - Kouryou-machi, Kita-katsuragi-gun, Nara
  • Other considerations - Tenri - Tenri-shi, Nara
So Tenri and Osaka Touin finished up the 1st round with wins, though Tenri only defeated Kouyasan 2-0.  That was foretelling of the upcoming matchup between the two, won handily by Osaka Touin 8-1 in 7 innings.

In other games, Yamato Kouryou played Ryuukokudai Heian close, but couldn't get a run on the board losing 2-0.  Osaka Shoudai Sakai lasted only 5 innings against Houtoku Gakuen losing 13-0.  And finally, Riseisha was fighting for their lives against surging Kyoto Shouei down 1-0 late before tying the game in the 8th.  The game would go into enchousen when reliever Sakamoto would finally fail, giving Kyoto Shouei the 3-1 win in 12!

That setup an all-Kyoto final on one side, and a powerhouse matchup on the other.

Kyoto Shouei and Ryuukokudai Heian were up first.  Kyoto Shouei didn't have to face Heian in the prefecturals as Heian was paired with Fukuchiyama Seibi.  Early on, the teams traded runs with Kyoto Shouei emerging with a 3-2 lead.  It stayed that way until the 7th where Heian would get to Enomoto (who came in in relief) for a pair of runs to lead 4-3.  However, their reliever Minami fell apart in the next half-inning.  He hit back-to-back batters sending in a run, and then ace Enomoto would redeem himself, blasting a manrui home run to blow the game wide open.

Kyoto Shouei seemed to be in full control up 9-4, but Enomoto seemed to be out of sorts coming in relief.  He struggled with his control as Heian came back to within 1 with a 4-run 8th!  He'd somehow get in together just in time, closing the game out in the 9th to win 9-8!

In the other semi, it was a shocker in that Osaka Touin was not competitive at all against Houtoku Gakuen.  In fact they were blanked 8-0 in 7 innings!

So Houtoku Gakuen and ace Inui Youhei (乾 陽平) were the final obstacle in Kyoto Shouei and Enomoto Kazuki (榎本 和輝) bid for their first ever fall title.

There were opportunities for both teams throughout the game as Inui yielded base hits almost every inning, while Enomoto's control issues persisted as he issued free passes.  Yet the score was at 1-1 after regulation.  Eventually it would become a matter of who would make the first mistake.

And that finally was made by Inui as he yielded 2 runs in the 13th.  They still had the bottom half of the inning, and Enomoto was approaching his limit too.  He would give up one run, but again found a way to shut the door, win 3-2, and claim Kyoto Shouei's first title!!

Looking at the field for the selection of the half-dozen bids, it almost winds up being as listed above by default.  Kyoto Shouei is definitely in, as well as Houtoku Gakuen.  While Heian is in the same prefecture as Kyoto Shouei, they didn't play each other in the prefecturals and held their own in the semifinals - so they're in.  Those are the definites.

Osaka Touin was uncharacteristically blown out by Houtoku Gakuen.  And their wins prior against Kousen and Tenri do not inspire confidence.

But then you look down at the quarterfinalists.  Tenri was blown out by Osaka Touin.  Daishoudai Sakai too was annihilated.  That leaves Riseisha who played Kyoto Shouei close as well and should get in, and Yamato Kouryou who had a nondescript win over Shiga Gakuen before being shutout 2-0 to Heian.

So Osaka Touin now appears safe, as does Riseisha.  The question becomes the last bid.

And that boils down to Yamato Kouryou and Tenri.

Tenri in name had the harder opponent in Osaka Touin, but Heian can easily be considered a quality opponent for Yamato Kouryou.

If the committee wants to go by name, then Tenri will go.  But I think if they go by play, it may fall to Yamato Kouryou.

Chuugoku (3 bids)
  • Champion - Kanzei - Okayama-shi, Okayama (6th title, 1st in 2 years)
  • Runner-up - Kouryou - Hiroshima-shi, Hiroshima
  • 3rd Bid - Iwakuni Shougyou - Iwakuni-shi, Yamaguchi
With 5 prefectures and 4 quadrants, the bracket breaks out such that the 1 & 3 seeds of each prefecture wind up in the same quadrant.  For 2 prefectures, they inhabit one quadrant:
  • A - Hamada (Shimane 2) vs. Ube Kougyou (Yamaguchi 4)
  • A - Iwakuni Shougyou (Yamaguchi 1) vs. Tamashima Shougyou (Okayama 2)
  • B - Soutoku (Hiroshima 1) vs. Tottori Jyouhoku (Tottori 3)
  • B - Yonago Kita (Tottori 1) vs. Kouryou (Hiroshima 3)
  • C - Kanzei (Okayama 1) vs. Jyosuikan (Hiroshima 2)
  • C - Yonago Shouin (Tottori 2) vs. Kurashiki Shougyou (Okayama 3)
  • D - Hayatomo (Yamaguchi 2) vs. Shimane Chuo (Shimane 3)
  • D - Masuda Shouyou (Shimane 1) vs. Iwakuni (Yamaguchi 3)
The side-effect is that prefectures can be shutout after the first round.

It turns out that not just one, but two prefectures would be eliminated!

So, all else being equal, who has the advantage?

Well, the home team.  And that happens to be Yamaguchi-ken.

In fact, all 4 entrants advanced into the second round.  Iwakuni Shougyou, Iwakuni and Ube Koujyou all won via the shutout.  Hayatomo was able to advance, but only after striking back for a pair of runs right after they gave up the lead in the 7th.

With that alone, Shimane was wiped off the board.  Who would be the other prefecture?

In B quadrant, Tottori Jyouhoku started off well against Soutoku, but fell apart in the 2nd half of the game, losing 8-4.  Yonago Kita went just 7 innings before they waved the white flag, losing 9-1.

That left 2nd place Yonago Shouin as the last representative.  But against Kurashiki Shougyou, that was a tough task.  They kept it close, even in fact tying the game at 1-1 in the top of the 5th.  Kurashou struck back with 2 in their part of the frame and held on to the 3-1 win.

A valiant effort, but both Japan Sea prefectures were eliminated.

And what appeared to be a blockbuster matchup in the first round wound up being anything but.  Jyousuikan would give up after 7 innings, losing to Kanzei 10-0!

This created a bizarre quarterfinal setup:
  • A - Ube Kougyou (Yamaguchi 4) vs. Iwakuni Shougyou (Yamaguchi 1)
  • B - Soutoku (Hiroshima 1) vs. Kouryou (Hiroshima 3)
  • C - Kanzei (Okayama 1) Kurashiki Shougyou (Okayama 3)
  • D - Hayatomo (Yamaguchi 2) vs. Iwakuni (Yamaguchi 3)
Yes, that's right, all 4 quarterfinals were intraprefectural matchups!  Interestingly though, only the Okayama matchup was a rematch of a prefectural semifinal.

In the Yamaguchi matchups, Iwakuni Shougyou proved that they were the cream of the crop, as they defeated the only Best 4 team they haven't played - Ube Kougyou, in a shutout 5-0.  Iwakuni showed that their 3rd place finish was a product of just being in the wrong half of the bracket.  The struggling Hayatomo was unceremoniously upended in a 10-0 defeat in 5 innings.

Soutoku probably wasn't happy to see Kouryou in their crosshairs.  They managed to avoid them in the prefecturals, but now when it really matters... it was all Kouryou in a 7-1 win.

That leaves the rematch of Kanzei and Kurashiki Shougyou.  Kanzei wouldn't leave anything to chance, scoring 6 runs in the 3rd en route to an 8-4 win.

Another byproduct of the 1st round was that Yamaguchi pretty much guaranteed themselves a team at Senbatsu, especially since due to the 85th tournament, Chuugoku gets an extra bid.

And that would prove key this year as Iwakuni was routed 11-1 by Kanzei, and while Iwakuni Shougyou held with Kouryou, they still lost 2-0.

So we're left with Kouryou and Kanzei in the finals, two teams used to the big game.  The game was a low-scoring affair early, then blown open in the span of 2 half-innings where Kouryou scored 3 in the 6th to lead 4-2, only to give up 5 in the lucky 7 to trail 7-4.  They'd win 8-5 to take the title.

And on the basis of the semifinal matchups, expect Iwakuni Shougyou to receive the 3rd bid.


Shikoku (3 bids)
  • Champion - Kochi - Kochi-shi, Kochi (6th title, 1st in 6 years)
  • Runner-up - Naruto - Naruto-shi, Tokushima
  • 3rd Bid -  Saibi - Matsuyama-shi, Ehime
Shikoku's draw looked like this:
  • Kochi (Kochi 1) vs. Imabari Kougyou (Ehime 2)-Marugame (Kagawa 3) winner
  • Eimei (Kagawa 1) vs. Tokushima Shougyou (Tokushima 2)-Tosa (Kochi 3) winner
  • Naruto (Tokushima 1) vs. Kochi Shougyou (Kochi 2)-Matsuyama Seiryou (Ehime 3) winner
  • Saibi (Ehime 1) vs. Takamatsu Shougyou (Kagawa 2)-Ikeda (Tokushima 3) winner
Oddly, only one of the 2 seed teams would advance out of the opening round.  That would be Tokushima Shougyou who finally got to Tosa in the 6th inning with a 3 spot and would win 4-1.

In the other games, Imabari Kougyou had a chance to survive as they were deadlocked 1-1 for a long time.  Marugame though would bid sayonara to the Ehime representative 2-1.   Kochi Shougyou was having a heck of a time in their game, but at 3-3 in the 7th Matsuyama Seiryou scored 6 to pull away.  Kochishou would score 3 in the 9th, but it wasn't enough.  And Ikeda finally made progress, winning 3-1.

With so many 3 seeds advancing, it would be expected that most if not all of the 1 seeds would advance.  And in fact, all did... except for the one team that faced the only #2 seed left.

Nartuo and Kochi had no problems.  Ikeda almost got to the semifinals and rallied late, but lost to Saibi 4-3.  Tokushou was in another close game.  They and Eimei were tied at 2 when Eimei scored a run in the 7th to take the lead.  But in the bottom of the 9th they get to ace Akagawa scoring 2 runs for the gyakuten sayonara victory.

Tokushou would try to extend their run against Kochi, and early on the semifinals they held a 2-run lead, even after swapping 3-run innings.  But Kochi would put up 2 runs in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings to win 11-7.  In the other semifinal, Saibi was in full control, getting 2 insurance runs in the final 2 innings to lead 4-1.  Saibi ace Anraku though didn't get the memo that he and his team needed to close out the game.  Naruto would rally for 4 runs and win 5-4.

To the final where Kochi would try to preempt the deficit by getting ahead early.  Naruto would have none of it and came back to level the score at 6 in the 6th.  Kochi though would score 2 in the 8th giving Naruto no time to stage a rally.

The extra bid will probably go to Saibi, who had Naruto dead to rights, right until the bottom of the 9th.


Kyushu (4 bids)
  • Champion - Okinawa Shougaku - Naha-shi, Okinawa (2nd title, 1st in 15 years)
  • Runner-up - Seiseikou - Chuo-ku, Kumamoto-shi, Kumamoto
  • 3rd Bid - Shoushikan - Shibushi-shi, Kagoshima
  • 4th Bid - Souseikan - Isahaya-shi, Nagasaki
  • Other Consideration - Kumamoto Kougyou, Kumamoto-shi, Kumamoto
 Early on, the games were rather competitive.  In the two opening round games, Kanzaki Seimei (Sage 2) were shutout by Souseikan (Nagasaki 3) 3-0.  Sasebo Jitsugyou (Nagasaki 2) lost it late against Miyazaki Nichidai (Miyazaki 3), falling 2-1.

Now all 8 top seeds would be in play, but by the end of the first round over half would go home.  But not the half you may have thought.
  • Kagoshima Jyouhou probably lacked experience and became Souseikan's 2nd shutout, losing by the slim margin of 1-0. (who by the way is looking to get an invitation this year after being snubbed).
  • Miyazaki's Nisshou Gakuen can't be faulted for losing their game, they had to play Okinawa Shougaku.  Down 4-0, they rallied late but still lost 4-2. 
  • Saga Kita reached the Super-Regionals again, but Shoushikan picked up the flag for Kagoshima and used a 5-run 5th to advance 7-3.
  • Seiseikou wanted to prove that their appearance last year wasn't just a fluke.  To that end they struck early and pulled ahead late, defeating Oita's Youshikan 6-2.
  • And Miyazaki Nichidai would pull the upset on Okinawa's Ginoza, shutting them out 5-0!
In fact, almost all top seeds struggled.  Kumamoto Kougyou scored the only run in their game, beating Isahaya 1-0.

Nagasaki Nichidai should have been dead to rights.  Enchousen, tied at 1 in the 10th, Moji Gakuen scores 4 runs and should have the game wrapped up.  Except they don't close it out!  Nagasaki Nichidai scores 4 and extends the game further!  I'd like to see what happened in that 10th inning.  It wouldn't be until the 13th inning where Nagasaki Nichidai would score the sayonara run to win 6-5!

The only non-contested game was surprisingly Kurume Shougyou vs. Meihou.  Kurushou scored 4 in the 1st inning and cruised to a 5-2 win.

The reprieve for the top seeds though wouldn't last.  All 3 remaining would lose in the quarterfinals.  Kurume Shougyou only went 7 against Souseikan losing 9-0.  Kumamoto Kougyou had to face Okinawa Shougaku, and narrowly lost 3-2 in 10 innings.  And Shoushikan used a 4-run 4th to defeat Nagasaki Nichidai 6-2.  The fourth team to advance would indeed be Seiseikou as they shutout the last Nichidai team as Miyazaki would fall 3-0.

That put Souseikan in the crosshairs of Okinawa Shougaku, while Shoushikan and Seiseikou would square off in the other semi.

And neither game was close.

In fact, both would last just 7 innings and both due to a big inning.  For Okishou, it was a 4-run 1st in an 8-1 win.  For Seiseikou, it was a 5-run 6th in an 8-0 win.

So it'd be Okinawa Shougaku and Seiseikou in the finals, and both pretty much guaranteed a spot in Senbatsu.  It would be just a matter now of who would represent Kyushu at the Meiji Jingu Tournament.

And boy was it a pitchers' duel.  Seiseikou's Ootake Koutarou (大竹 耕太郎) versus the tandem of Ura Jyun (宇良 淳) and Higa Kenichirou (比嘉 健一朗).  Okishou certainly had more opportunities throughout the game, but the game remained scoreless through 8.  But in the top of the 9th, it all unraveled for Seiseikou.  Okinawa Shougaku would put up 5 runs in the 9th and claim just their 2nd ever fall title!

Rounding out the projected 4 bids are in all probability the two semifinalists - Souseikan and Shoushikan.  Yes, they still lost badly in the semifinals, but they had shutout their competition beforehand (though the quality of the opposition can be argued).  Shoushikan defeated both Saga Kita and Nagasaki Nichidai and despite their blowout loss, should get in.

The only other team who could make a case would be Kumamoto Kougyou, who was the only team to actually play Okinawa Shougaku close.  And bad news for Souseikan, they would probably be the team on the bubble if there were other considerations.