Monday, August 8, 2016

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 2, Game 3 - Takagawa Gakuen (Yamaguchi) v Riseisha (Osaka)

Well, there's always going to be a clunker or two. Sadly, this might qualify as one as well.

Takagawa Gakuen (Yamaguchi)
CF Ooe Shunsuke (大江 駿介)
C Yamazaki Yuudai (山崎 悠大)
RF Aida Masato (相田 聖人)
2B Ishimaru Ryuuya (石丸 隆哉)
1B Mori Daisuke (森 大祐)
P Yamano Taichi (山野 太一)
SS Ichinari Keigo (市成 啓悟)
3B Asada Sou (朝田 走)
LF (14)Yoshimura Masato

Riseisha (Osaka)
CF Fukuda Kandai (福田 観大)
2B Kitano Shuu (北野 秀)
1B Yoshikawa Yuuto (四川 雄翔)
3B Yasuda Hisanori (安田 尚憲)
C Imachi Taisei (井町 大生)
P Terashima Naruki (寺島 成輝)
LF (13)Wakabayashi Shouhei (若林 将平)
RF Yamamoto Yuutaku (山本 侑度)
SS Wakabayashi Kenji (若林 健治)

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13:35 - First pitch

Top 1st
As expected perhaps, it's a pretty quiet 1st for Terashima retiring the side in order.

Bottom 1st
Meanwhile Fukuda gets a leadoff base hit playing cricket, hitting a ball near the ground and depositing it into left.

After a sac bunt, Yoshikawa gives the ball a ride, but right to the RF Aida.

Yasuda tries to make a bid for a abse hit, but Ishimaru makes a great diving stop and throws to 1st for the out.

Top 2nd
Terashima's control is pretty good to start, as he's working the edges of the strike zone. This as he's hitting 145 on the gun. Another K and 2 groundouts and he's clean through 2.

Bottom 2nd
Riseisha's timing seems a bit off right now as Imachi is way too early, but keeps the bat in the zone to bloop one to left.

Terashima having no such trouble, takes a ball the other way through the left side for a base hit.

Riseisha actually calling for the bunt, and Shouhei lays it down.

Yamano not afraid, pitching Yamamoto inside, but he leaves one middle-middle and Yamamoto knows what to do with it. Single past a diving Mori and it's 1-0.

2 down for the top of the lineup now, and Yamano makes another mistake letter-high. Fukuda takes it over Yoshimura's head for a bases clearing triple. 3-0.

Kitano makes it 4-0 on a hard hit single to center. The rout may be on even as Yoshikawa pops out to 2nd.

Top 3rd
Terashima is warming up it seems, as he is hitting his C's targets time and again. Ichinari tries to buy a walk, but instead is rung up looking. He racks up one more K in his 3rd clean frame of work.

Bottom 3rd
Riseisha looking for more as Yasuda doubles right on the right field line. Imachi is hit afterwards and things are spiraling away.

Yet, Yamano continues to try and pound inside, and what do you know he jams Terashima grounding into the 3-6 double play. Throw in a strikeout on the inside edge and Yamano gets his 0.

Top 4th
Of course I probably jinxed Terashima's grove a bit as he walks Ooe to lead off the 4th (there goes the perfect game). Ooe then takes the opportunity to steal 2nd as well.

Yamazaki makes great contact with the ball, and it would have gone down the line for extra bases, but Yasuda makes a leaping snag for the first out.

2 down, and Terashima's control issues come up again as he hits Ishimaru. But he comes right back to freeze Mori to end the inning.

Top 5th
After that blip in the 4th, Terashima sets down the side in order in just 9 pitches. He's given up a walk, but not a hit.

Bottom 5th
Meanwhile, I thought Yamano was going to be in trouble after the 2nd, but he's settling down into a groove. Though Imachi gets on after strike 3 gets away from Yamazaki, he otherwise puts up another donut as we head to the break. Riseisha still in control, but perhaps not the blowout we were expecting.

Top 6th
The no-no is gone! Ooe with a chopper up the middle, and Kenji has to make a lunge as the ball spins away, throw to 1st is wide and Ooe takes 2nd! The scorer awards the 1B & E6 and the no-no is gone.

2 down, Ooe still at 2nd, and Aida gets a clean single through the left side for a base hit! Ooe comes home and the throw isn't in time! Terashima loses the shutout as Takagawa Gakuen makes it 4-1!

Bottom 6th
Yamano has really settled down after that 2nd inning. Even though he finally retires the side for the first time here in the 6th, he's only given up one hit since the 2nd.

Top 7th
As for Terashima, perhaps he wasn't happy with losing the shutout? He goes back to back K on Mori and Yamano before getting an assist from Kenji, who makes a great play on a grounder from Ichinari.

Bottom 7th
I jinx players it seems. Yamano gives up a base hit to Fukuda to lead off the 7th. It looked like he was going to post another bagel after a sac bunt and a groundout, but on a pitch that seemingly was supposed to be a waste pitch, he misses back over the plate! Yasuda drives it to center, and Ooe crashes into the wall unable to make the catch. Fukuda scores and it's a 5-1 ballgame.

That pretty much settles proceedings. Takagawa Gakuen doesn't put up any further resistance as Terashima strikes out 11. Takagawa Gakuen and especially Yamano did well despite losing on the overall played a respectable game.

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 2, Game 2 - Chuukyou (Gifu) v Oita (Oita)

Today has gone off to a pretty good start, I'm getting excited for every game as it seems like they're for the most part competitive.

Chuukyou (Gifu)
SS Watanabe Takashi (渡辺 豪)
CF Katou Souta (加藤 壮太)
RF Kitagawa Ryuunosuke (北川 竜之介)
1B Imai Jyunnosuke (今井 順之助)
2B Yoshii Shougo (吉位 翔伍)
3B Taira Hidemasa (平 秀匡)
C Nagatani Daiki (水谷 大貴)
LF Nishikawa Souma (西川 颯真)
P (16)Furuta Shouto (古田 星投)

Oita (Oita)
3B Tsukano Kasumi (束野 克実)
SS Miura Takuto (三浦 拓人)
2B Satou Riku (佐藤 陸)
LF Yamashita Kaisei (山下 海星)
1B Numamoto Taiga (沼本 大河)
RF Wada Fuugo (和田 風吾)
C Kida Rikuto (木田 陸人)
P Ishimoto Katsuya (石本 勝也)
CF Tomita Ryuutarou (冨田 柳汰朗)

____________________________________________________________

10:40 - First pitch

Top 1st
Watanabe with a single to center, but Tomita's throw in is flubbed by Miura and allows Watanabe to reach 2nd. A sac bunt and a base hit later and it's 1-0 Chuukyou.

Ishimoto gets out of the jam with a strike 'em out throw 'em out double play, but it's not the best of starts for Oita.

Bottom 1st
Miura trying to rally a quick reply as he gets a one-out single to center.

Also, I hear the announcers say that to lefties Furuta has a 1-seamer? I've heard about it, but can't remember where.

Satou following that up with a rip to right. They might have that run back sooner than you can say douten.

I write that and Yamashita pops out to 2nd. Nunamoto is way out in front on the next pitch and grounds out to 3rd. Threat over.

Top 2nd
Chuukyou plays a different game in the 2nd with the bottom of their lineup. A 1-out walk is bunted over for a one-timer by the 8-9 batters, but Nishikaw gets plunked, and Furuta strikes out looking to end the inning.

Top 3rd
After a really quick turnaround, the top of the order remixes the 1st inning. This time Watanabe gets a bona fide double, and after another bunt Kitagawa singles to center and it's 2-0.

Ishimoto pitches around Imai, and it seems like it might work. Yoshii flies out to shallow center for the 2nd out, and after Tsukano decides to take a tumble into the camera well, Satou makes a great rundown of a ball to the right side, and from RF makes the throw to 1st for the 3rd out.

Bottom 3rd
Tomita with a shallow fly down the right field line, Kitagawa charging, reaches out, makes the catch, but no! He loses it on the tumble and it's a base hit! He doesn't realize it's still in play and Tomita makes it all the way to 3rd! Can the top of the order bring him in?

Yes, they do - just. Tsukano hits it just deep enough to get the runner home.

2 down now, and Furuta gives up a single back up the middle to Satou. Then he compounds that by hitting Yamashita and putting the douten runner in scoring position

Numamoto makes Furuta pay with a single to right center! Satou can walk home and we're all tied at 2-2!

Oh no... Nagatani called for catcher's interference and it's manrui.

But Kida is perhaps a bit eager to get that timely hit and pops out to Imai to end the inning.

Top 4th
Bottom of the lineup is coming alive as Nagatani and Furuta both gets clean singles to put runners at the corners for the top of the lineup.

Matsuo-kantoku calls time and the best option they came up with is to hit Watanabe to load the bases (kidding). But it results in no run and a force at all bases.

But Katou is jammed and hits a short blooper. The defense races back, but it's out of Numamoto's reach for a base hit. 3-2.

That brings up Kitagawa, oh dear.

Off the bat you know it's gone. 7-2 and we can wrap it up here folks.

Toss in a double and single to make it 8-2, and Ishimoto is finally cooked. #13 Iwasaki comes in to get the final 2 outs.

Bottom 4th
They PH for their relief P, so it looks like we'll see another person on the mound.

Meanwhile Tomita gets a one out hit, and down 6 is thrown out trying to take 2nd. No I don't get it either.

Top 5th
#11 Nonaka is the next Oita P to try their hand. He can't get the 3 outs before the lineup turns over as he walks Nishikawa. And then he walks Watanabe to boot. Now Kitagawa is on deck as Katou steps in.

But Nonaka does his job, leaving him there as Katou flies out to center.

Bottom 5th
Oita has something when they get the first 2 batters on via walk, but the next 3 batters do nothing. We hit the break with Chuukyou in full control.

Bottom 6th
Furuta is finally knocked out of the game after giving up a single and double to the bottom two of the Oita lineup. Ace Iwakawa comes in, gives up a base hit to Tsukano making it 8-3 - but he closes the door thereafter on a 6-4-3 double play.

Bottom 7th
While Oita is closing the gap, it's going way too slow.

Satou leads off with a triple that goes off CF Katou. Yamashita immediately follows that up with a base hit to make it 8-4.

They're looking for more, but Numamoto grounds into another DP. That's unfortuate because Wada doubles to right, but is left stranded. Chuukyou is fine giving up a run as there isn't enough innings to make that comeback.

Top 8th
Well all that work goes for naught. 2 out runners on 1st/2nd, Imai hits a ball to left. Yamashita wind up all turned around and the ball is just out of his grasp. 2 runs score to make it 10-4. Worse yet the inning continues and Yoshii hits a screaming 2-run HR right to make it 12-4.

The rest of the game goes pretty quietly except that Oita's 4th P #12 Tachibana finally retires Watanabe in his final AB, other than that, it's all Chuukyou.

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 2, Game 1 - Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Mie) v Tsuruoka Higashi (Yamagata)

I'm a bit behind in team reviews - got the 1st two games in, but I'm still hoping to enjoy today - especially after yesterday's games.

Tsuruoka Higashi (Yamagata)
CF (17)Kudou Daisuke (工藤 大輔)
2B Tai Kento (太居 建人)
RF Maruyama Dai (丸山 大)
1B Satou Yoshi (佐藤 要)
LF Nasu Tsubasa (奈須 翼)
3B Igamatsu Tsubasa (伊賀松 飛翔)
C Kishi Daisuke (岸 大輔)
P (18)Kobayashi Kazuki (小林 一輝)
SS Hagiwara Takahito (萩原 誉人)

Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Mie)
CF Okumura Touki (奥村 拓希)
RF Miyazaki Yuuto (宮崎 大和)
2B Kanda Shouji (神田 将嗣)
LF Fujii Ryouma (藤井 亮磨)
C Watanabe Yuuta (渡辺 雄太)
SS Morita Ryouma (守田 良真)
P (16)Akagi Sousuke (赤木 聡介)
1B Fukase Ryoutarou (深瀬 凌太郎)
3B Fujita Ryouga (藤田 涼雅)

____________________________________________________________

09:00 - First pitch

Top 1st
Kudou gets a favorable bounce when a chopper goes off Akagi's glove and dribbles to the left side for a base hit. He's of course bunted over.

Akagi a bit shaky here in the opening frame, hitting Maruyama. Satou grounds one to the right side, advancing the runners, but Nasu grounds to 3rd to end the threat.

Bottom 1st
Inabe Sougou gets a leadoff runner of their own when Kobayashi issues a leadoff walk. They show bunt but elect to swing away. And that is paid off as he takes a letter high pitch and lines it down the left field line for a base hit! Early chance!

And there is still no bunt from them either as Kanda drives one, but right to left for the first out.

Kanda meanwhile draws a walk and the bases are loaded. And for Kobayashi, who doesn't throw hard, he has to live off of his control and it's just not there.

He does manage to full up the count after falling behind Watanabe 3-0.

But Watanabe connects on one, except that Igamatsu makes a great catch and dives back to 3rd, beating Okumura for the double play!

Top 2nd
Meanwhile Igamatsu turns right around and hits a ball to left center for a leadoff double! That's compounded by Akagi when his pickoff throw goes awry,

Kishi punishes that immediately with a ball past a drawn in Fujita! 1-0 to the Yamagata champs!

After a failed bunt attempt, Akagi puts himself in a bit deeper water walking the #9 batter Hagiwara.

He almost gets out of the inning, but instead Tai shoots a ball though the right side and Kishi is able to scurry home to make it 2-0!

That's all they get, but they strike first in the battle of relief starters!

Bottom 2nd
Morita gets a favorable bounce as he gets a high hop that Hagiwara can't adjust for.

ISG meanwhile continues the no-bunting strategy, instead electing for the hit-and-run which sends him to 2nd on the grounder from Akagi.

Kobayashi gets his 2nd out with Fukase chasing a slider outside. A grounder to 2nd and the side is retired.

Top 3rd
That's also it for Akagi as ace Yamauchi comes in to take the hill.

And it's a relatively easy inning for the ace has he retires the heart of the Tsuruoka lineup in order.

Bottom 3rd
Inabe Sougou continuing to get baserunners. Okumura bloops one down the left side and Miyazaki not bunting either puts one almost in the same place giving them a great scoring chance,

Kanda not bunting as well, but hits a short chopper to the left side. Hagiwara's throw to 1st is high! That allows Okumura to score and it's 2-1!

Fujii swinging away, but is ahead of a slider for the 2nd out.

And now Ozaki-kantoku calls for the bunt!

Watanabe lays it down, but it goes right back to Kobayashi! He shovels home and Miyazaki is out!

WIth Morita flying out to center, Kobayashi holds onto their slim lead.

Top 4th
A decent opportunity seemed to be starting when Kishi blooped one to left. However, only Kudou could do anything with it with a similar blooper to left. Tai would end up stranding both runners on a flyout to center.

Bottom 4th
The inning was a bit of a mess on both sides. After 2 out Fujita gets on when Igamatsu airmails a throw allowing him to take 2nd.

Okumura with a ball up the middle, and Hagiwara boots that one. Problem is, Fujita strays too far from 3rd and is caught stranded! He races home, but is retired 6-5-2 to end any chance to tie the game.

Top 5th
Yamauchi gives up a leadoff walk, but shortens the inning with a textbook double play and a kick save to his 3B who makes the throw to 1st.

Bottom 5th
Another error from Tsuruoka Higashi. This time it's Kai who makes a great running pick up the middle, but throws it away. Kanda finally makes them pay with a single through the right side and we'e tied at 2-2!

One down now and Watanabe lines one to right for a base hit putting runners at the corners. Chance as Morita, but he pops it up! Tai goes back to make the catch, but Kanda races home! Throw in is not in time and Inabe Sougou takes the lead 3-2! I saw the CF nearby, he probably should have taken it so he could make the throw home with momentum, but it's too late now!

Yamauchi can't build on that, striking out to retire the side, but his team has put him ahead as we hit the break!

Bottom 7th
Momentum seems to be with Inabe Sougou at this point having taken the lead, and despite not scoring in the 6th they had baserunners.

And leading off the inning was Miyazaki who was 3-3 on the day.

Unfortunately for Kobayashi, he puts one middle-middle and Miyazaki sends it over the RF wall to make it a 4-2 ballgame.

And instead of slowing down he speeds up. The TV coverage can't even show the HR as Kanda singles to left. That's followed up by another single by Satou and Inabe Sougou threatens to put the game out of reach.

With one down, Ozaki-kantoku calls once again for the squeeze, this time it's laid down perfectly and the lead expands a little more to 5-2.

Top 8th
Maruyama tries to get his team on track with a double to the right field wall. But neither Satou or Nasu can drive him in, moving him only to 3rd.

2 down and runners at the corners, #12 Kawakami comes in to hit.

After thinking that he had him retired not once but twice, Yamauchi has him on a fly ball to center.

Bottom 8th
#11 Yoshizumi comes in for Watanabe to take the hill, Kawakami stays in at C, Matsumoto moves to left and #8 Abe is in now in for Kudou in center.

Yoshizumui gets a clean frame in his inning of work, but the team needs runs now.

Top 9th
Yamauchi gets a quick out, but after hitting Hagiwara and falling behind Abe 3-0, #11 Yoshizumi comes in. It's understandable that he walks Abe to continue the inning.

But Yoshizumi not faring any better and he walks Tai! Manrui as Ozaki-kantoku calls time. What seemed like it was going to be a routine 1-2-3 is anything but.

Maruyama pops one way up in foul territory, Kishi and Satou converge... and it falls in! They really needed that out.

And now Yoshizumi walks in a run to make it 5-3 with cleanup hitter Fujii coming up!

But he swings on the first pitch! 6... 4... 3... double play! The game is over!

And somehow, with all the trouble, Inabe Sougou Gakuen survives 5-3!

For me, it's another example of a team failing to let a P struggle on the mound. 1 HBP and 3 walks, and you attack the first pitch? You have to let them continue to struggle, especially with an out to give. The pressure is on the mound not at the box.

But, Inabe Sougou survives and advances.

98th Koushien - Team Analysis by Group (Day 8 via Day 2)

Since I'm basically going to be playing catchup this entire tournament, today will be looking at these teams today who are going into Day 8.

*Note - Pitching and Batting grades are given by Strength/Depth

Day 2
Game 1 - 1st Round
Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Mie) - Pitching C+/C+, Batting C/C
  • def Kinan 10-0
  • def Ino 8-0
  • def Ise Kougyou 8-3
  • def Kaisei 1-0
  • def Tsuda Gakuen 10-4
Inabe Sougou Gakuen wins not have to face Mie, but they did handle their business except for a big scare in the semifinals defeating Kaisei 1-0.

Ace Yamauchi Tomoki (山内 智貴) has sub-optimal K rates (7.58) given the competition though at least his walk numbers are good. But it wasn't him that face Kaisei. Instead it was their #16 Araki Sousuke (赤木 聡介), who pitched a 5-hit shutout, strikiing out 4 and walking 1.

But that's weird. Kaisei was the best competition the team faced, and yet their ace didn't take the mound. I'm not sure what to make of that, even though they obviously did win. I can't tell if that was intentional because Ozaki-kantoku was confident in his staff, but since the numbers aren't completely middling, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt though in the end it still seems average at best.

Offensively, the top of the lineup as one would expect holds most of the danger, with the bottom perhaps providing respite to the opposition. No one really stands out, which is ok, but it also means that they'll need to string things together to make it work.

Tsuruoka Higashi (Yamagata) - Pitching C/C+, Batting C+/B-
  • def Shinjyou Kamuro 9-0 (7)
  • def Tsuruoka Tousen 9-0 (7)
  • def Sakata Higashi 9-2
  • def Sakata Minami 16-5 (5)
  • def Yamagata Chuo 10-8 (11)
Well, Tsuruoka Higashi is back again, and the offensive numbers look good. But the last two games - even against upper tier competition seem a bit suspect. Against Sakata Minami, they made what is a very high Tier 2 school, they made them look like a non-descript school. But then against Yamagata Chuo they found themselves behind before coming back, needing 3 tries to put Yamagata Chuo away.

Oota Kaito (太田 海都) wears the ace number, but he didn't pitch against Sakata Minami and then was relieved after giving up 4 runs in 5 innings of work in the finals. His peripherals don't look that great either (6.23 K/9, 4.15 BB/9). Combine that with the fact that Satou-kantoku went to 4 pitchers in the finals probably means he's not beholden to any pitcher. But it also means that his staff probably isn't particularly strong.

Offensively the team obviously has a ton of hits and runs, but perhaps a player to watch is the last batter, Hagiwara Takahito (萩原 誉人) who was 4-8 with 8 RBIs. Two other players to watch for are the corners in 3B Igamatsu Tsubasa (伊賀松 飛翔) and 1B Satou Yoshi (佐藤 要). Yamagata isn't particularly strong, but the crooked numbers are better than nothing. Plus, the high walk numbers are always promising when combined with good BAs.

Game 2 - 1st Round
Chuukyou (Gifu) - Pitching C/B-, Batting C/C
  • def Mizunami 4-1
  • def Tomita 9-1
  • def Gifu Jyouhoku 6-4
  • def Gifu Kakamino 8x-1 (7)
  • def Nagara 3-0
  • def Oogaki Nichidai 3-2
Chuukyou won the Gifu tournament defeating last year's champion (Gifu Jyouhoku) and a perennial team in Oogaki Nichidai - both of which by the way were their closest games.

Chuukyou is also a weird ace. Iwakawa Keishirou (岩川 奎司) wears the ace number, but it's Furuda Shouto (古田 星投) who seems to get the bulk of the action. Neither pitcher though is all that overpowering, so I guess it's why perhaps Hashimoto-kantoku thinks they're interchangable.

The most consistent hitter by far is their #2 hitter, CF Katou Souta (加藤 壮太) going 6-16 in the final 4 games. And as you would expect, the bottom of the lineup is a weakness for the team. 

Oita (Oita) - Pitching C/C+, Batting C/C
  • def Hita Rinkou 6-1
  • def Oita Maizuru 7-2
  • def Oita Kougyou 14-7 (8)
  • def Usuki 8-0 (7)
  • def Saiki Kakujyou 8-2
Oita really didn't play any major teams in their run to the title, but they did at least take care of business. Ace Ishimoto Katsuya (石本 勝也) numbers are not great given the competition (7.68/2.72), and struggled against Oita Kougyou going just 3 innings before 3 relievers would come in to close out the game. At least Matsuo-kantoku is willing to go to his bullpen if necessary.

As with most teams, the top of the lineup is the most steady of the group with leadoff batter 3B Tsukano Kasumi (束野 克実) setting the table. It's not much different than other teams and in a weak prefecture it will probably be more exposed.

Game 3 - 1st Round
Takagawa Gakuen (Yamaguchi) - Pitching C+/F, Batting C/C
  • def Houfu Nishi 17-4
  • def Nanyou Kougyou 6-1
  • def Kudamatsu 10-0 (5)
  • def Ube Shougyou 6-0
  • def Nagato 7x-0 (8)
  • def Ube Koujyou 8-2
Takagawa Gakuen blitzes through Yamaguchi defeating both Nanyou Kougyou and Ube Koujyou along the way for the title. On the mound ace Yamano Taichi (山野 太一) was rather impressive, sporting a 9.77 K/9 while holding a 2.11 BB/9 rate. In those games against the two teams it was a 19/3 K/BB ratio, which is all you can really ask for in a starter.

Offensively, the team is easily led by their #3 hitter RF Souta Masato (相田 聖人) who was 6-9 in the 2 games against the top teams. As one would expect, the teams hit well as a whole, though it was depressed against Nanyou Kougyou and Ube Koujyou. The bottom of the lineup wasn't totally feckless, but it is another thing when you get here.

Riseisha (Osaka) - Pitching A-/A-, Batting A-/A-
  • def Kansaidai Dai-ichi 18-1 (5)
  • def Han-ai 7x-0 (7)
  • def Ibaraki 10x-0 (6)
  • def Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara 11-1 (5)
  • def Osaka Taiikudai Namishou 2-0
  • def Naniwa 8x-1(7)
  • def Sakuranomiya 11x-1 (6)
  • def Konkou Osaka 12-0
With Osaka Touin out of the picture, Riseisha had their way with the prefecture, only letting Osaka Taiikudai Namishou get close. Ace Terashima Naruki (寺島 成輝) completely dominated, with a 13.34 K/9 rate, but also understand that the major competition was just Higashi-Osakadai Kashiwara, Osaka Taiikudai Namishou, and Konkou Osaka. He did not pitch the first game, but in the other 2, struck out 25 while walking 6. The person who did pitch the Higashi-Osakadai game, #10 Yamaguchi Yuujirou (山口 裕次郎), struck out 10 while walking none. If you have that in the back of your pocket, that's scary.

Offensively with that run output, it's hard to single out any one person. But as I poked around, 3B Yasuda Hisanori's (安田 尚憲) name came up repeatedly. The numbers aren't consistently there, so I guess we'll have to see him live. As for the rest of the lineup, the high depth grade goes to the fact that in that 2-0 win, it was up and down the lineup who had collected the few hits for the team. Throw in the fact that they like to take walks and you have one of the scarier teams in the field.

Game 4 - 1st Round
Touhou (Aichi) - Pitching B/B-, Batting C/C+
  • def Atsumi Nougyou 5-0
  • def Tougou 9-0
  • def Jishuukan 8-0 (7)
  • def Kyouei 3x-2
  • def Eitoku 3-0
  • def Aikoudai Meiden 7-2
Touhou's run is a 3-year buildup. Back in 2014, ace Fujishima Kento (藤嶋 健人) led the way, giving the team a win against Nichinan Gakuen before falling to Nihon Bunri. In the spring he also went 1-1 defeating Kanto Dai-ichi before falling to Akashi Shougyou.

He's not an overpowering pitcher, but still gets a strikeout per inning while walking a shade over 2. He won't melt down on the mound, so Touhou will always be in the game. The only other pitcher used is actually their RF, Matsuyama Masahiko (松山 仁彦). He pitched in the Kyouei game striking out 9 and walking 1. Now, Kyouei isn't a top tier team, but it's still a respectable result, especially given the fact he was still pitching while the team trailed.

Offensively, there wasn't really any one person who stood out, and in their final 2 games the team batted a tick under 0.250. That's a bit of a red flag and continues to show that if something fails for Touhou, it won't be their pitching.

Hokuriku (Fukui) - Pitching D+/D, Batting C-/C-
  • def Takefu 4-2
  • def Sabae 6-4
  • def Keishin 5-4
  • def Sakai 5-1
  • def Fukui Shougyou 6-5
Hokuriku won Fukui having only really need to play Fukui Shougyou. Yet, they were involved in several close games on their way to meeting Fukushou.

Ace Mizuno Hayato (水野 隼斗) was certainly more of a game manager for Hokuriku. His K rate and BB rates were actually the same at 3.94, which obviously isn't a good sign. And against Fukui Shougyou he struck out just 2 while walking 7.

Offensively, SS Nakagawa Taiji (中川 大治) and CF Naitou Shouta (内藤 翔太) are 2 of the better hitters on the team it seems - but the bottom of the lineup is once again a big question mark. Taking into account the level of competition, you really have to question how effective their offense will be here at Koushien.

Sunday, August 7, 2016

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 1, Game 3 - Moriokadai Fuzoku (Iwate) v Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka)

These two teams can breath a sigh of relief as neither will have to face Chiben Gakuen, yet.

Moriokadai Fuzoku (Iwate)
1B Ishibashi Taisei (石橋 泰成)
2B Sugawara Yuuki (菅原 優輝)
CF Ueda Taku (植田 拓)
RF Shiotani Hiroki (塩谷 洋樹)
C Itou Yuuki (伊藤 勇貴)
3B Ohara Taiga (小原 大河)
LF (16)Nishiyama Yuuki (西山 雄基)
SS (14)Higa Kenshin (比嘉 賢伸)
P Tsubota Shinsuke (坪田 伸祐)

Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka)
RF Nakayama Tatsuhide (中山 竜秀)
CF Yamawaki Shouta (山脇 彰太)
2B Ishibashi Daichi (石橋 大智)
LF Watanabe Shouta (渡辺 勝太)
1B Yasunaga Motoya (安永 元也)
SS (16)Onaka Rikito ()
P Fujimoto Kaito (藤本 海斗)
C Nagaoka Taishou (永岡 大昇)
3B Torii Ren (鳥井 蓮)

____________________________________________________________

15:55 - First Pitch!

Top 1st
Well, Moriokadai Fuzoku out to really exert its influence. One down, Sugawara hits a gapper to right center. Ueda follows that up with one off the wall in center, but Sugawara had to hold up for the catch and he's at 3rd. Fujimoto almost gets out of it, but Itou takes a high fastball and lines it to right, scoring both runners. They're up 2-0 and perhaps they heard I doubted their offensive capabilities (yeah, right).

Bottom 1st
Yamawaki turns around and delivers a one out single to center. He steals 2nd on the strikeout to Ishibashi, but there 2 out.

Before I can think about it though, Watanabe bloops a ball to right that Shiotani can't reach, scoring Yamawaki, and then on the very next pitch Yasunaga hits a ball to center that Shiotani crashes into the wall chasing, and like that it's 3-2 Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku!

Top 2nd
Unlike the first inning, the bottom of Moriokadai's lineup is unable to do much against Fujimoto, going down in order with 2 strikeouts.

Bottom 2nd
This is in comparison to Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku where Torii (there he is again), gets a one-out base hit. Not only that, but he goes on to steal 2nd.

A walk is added on later with 2 down, but Ishibashi can't deliver a timely hit to extend the lead.

Top 3rd
Back to the top of the lineup for Moriokadai, and Ishibashi starts it off with a ball past a diving Onaka into center. They instead elect for the hit-and-run, and it goes off perfectly when Sugawara singles to right!

Or so they thought!

RF Nakayama, playing in, charges the ball and makes a laser throw to 3rd nailing Ishibashi!

After a strikout things seem bleak, but Shiotani on a full count gets a hold of a letter high pitch and drives it to left center! It goes for a double and we're all tied at 3-3!

Things appear to be spiraling a bit after a wild pitch threatens to relinquish the lead, but Itou chases a ball in the dirt to retire the side. Still, it looks like it's going to be one of those games.

Bottom 3rd
Yep. Watanabe leads off with a gapper that splits the fielders in left-center for a double. 2 batters later, Onaka hits a ball past a diving Nishiyama. The throw home is high and Onaka takes another base. 4-3 Kyukoku retakes the lead.

After another single, this through the left side, time is called.

For now Tsubota holds the line, getting Nagaoka to ground into the 4-6-3 double play, but the pendulum swings back to Kyukoku.

Top 4th
That didn't last long. Obara swings and the ping tells you all you need to know. He scoffs at the hamakaze lining a HR to right, tying the game up once again at 4-4!

After a one-out hit by Higa, the day is over for Tsubota as #15 Inoue comes in to hit for him. Morioka's inning stalls thereafter, but once again we're level

Bottom 4th
2 changes for Moriokadai. #7 Nosaka comes in to play LF, and #11 Miura comes in to pitch.

Things appear to be going swimmingly for him with 2 quick outs, but he turns around and then walks the next 2 batters. He wiggles out of his self-made jam with a comebacker from Watanabe.

5th Inning
After a wild first 4 innings, the teams decided to call a truce it seems letting both teams reach the break to prepare for the home stretch.

Top 6th
And off we go again!

One down, Obara draws a walk, then proceeds to steal 2nd. Nosaka then makes his presence felt by getting a base hit over Yamawaki's head. That gives Moriokadai Fuzoku their 1st lead since the 1st at 5-4!

Bottom 6th
This time around Miura holds serve, and for now Moriokadai Fuzoku holds onto the advantage.

7th Inning
My body's hitting a wall staying awake and perhaps so are both teams (hitting a wall that is).

That changes when Miura walks Ishibashi with 1 down. Innocuous enough, and especially after a grounder makes it 2 down.

But Yasunaga comes through yet again, this time a ball up the middle that allows Ishibashi to score, tying the game once again at 5-5.

Top 8th
For every action that Kyukoku has, Moriokadai continues to find a response for. Again, it's a one out single, this time by Obara. And with 2 down it's Higa, who lines a ball down the right field side and all the way to the wall! Nakayama makes a strong throw home, but Obara just beats the tag and Moriokadai retakes the lead at 6-5!

Bottom 8th
Kyukoku firing right back! Fujimoto tries to help his own cause with a single back up the middle. After another sac bunt, Torii does the same! Fujimoto has to hold his ground at 3rd, but the douten runner is just 90 feet away.

And Miura throws it away! Fujimoto comes home and we're tied at 6-6!

And now things are unraveling for Moriokadai! Miura walks Nakayama, and then when Moriwaki hits a high chopper, everyone goes to field the ball, but there's no one to throw to! Everyone's safe and it's manrui 1 out!

Is this the end of the line for Miura?

Not yet! He gets Ishibashi to ground out to 1st, Ishibashi throws home, gets 1, but Itou bounces the throw! It's fielded by a covering Sugawara, who prevents it from leaking out to right. 2 down.

Watanabe first pitch swinging, grounds to 3rd! Obara snags it, goes to the bag, and Kyukoku can only tie the game once again!

Top 9th
YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!

One down, Sugawara gets around a ball inside and drives it to left! Watanabe going back to the fence...

AND IT'S GONE! Once again Moriokadai Fuzoku takes the lead here in the 9th at 7-6!

2 down and while Torii makes a great stop, his throw is wide, allowing Shiotani to take 2nd. After a wild pitch of their own, Itou maybe puts the nail in the coffin with a base hit to left, making it an 8-6 ballgame.

That's also it for Fujimoto as he's sent to LF. #11 Miura comes in for Watanabe in the cleanup spot to take the hill.He gives up a walk, but gets the final out.

But in a matter of symmetry, Moriokadai Fuzoku has the 2-run lead they had after the end of their first half-inning. Now, can they prevent the 3 runs on the other side?

Bottom 9th
Yasunaga strikes out to start the 9th, but the ball gets away from Itou and his throw to 1st takes Ishibashi off the bag! Can Kyukoku really come back again?

2 outs later and perhaps it was too much.

But no! Nagaoka lines a ball down the right field line and it's runners at 2nd and 3rd! And that brings up Torii who played his way into a position! Can he deliver the timely hit?

NO! It's a grounder to short! Higa throws to 1st and Moriokadai Fuzoku finally puts Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku away 8-6!

I've never seen a team come back that much as Kyukoku did and they still weren't paid off in the end. They did all you could have asked for from a team except win. And to be eliminated on the first day has to hurt.

For Moriokadai Fuzoku, they literally survived and advanced. In this game at least they proved they have the chops to score runs, but the pitching now looks suspect having given up 6 when they barely gave up any in the prefecturals. They have the grit, but they'll need the pitching if they want to continue on.

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 1, Game 2 - Izumo (Shimane) v Chiben Gakuen (Nara)

Back from getting food, but Izumo needs a ton of miracles to compete today.

Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
LF Osame Daichi (納 大地)
CF Aoki Yuudai (青木 雄大)
2B Oota Hidetake (太田 英毅)
RF Fukumoto Yuuma (福元 悠真)
1B Takahashi Naoki (高橋 直暉)
P Murakami Shouki (村上 頌樹)
3B Oohashi Shunpei (大橋 駿平)
C Okasawa Tomoki (岡沢 智基)
SS Nakamura Akita (中村 晃)

Izumo (Shimane)
CF Hashimoto Noriyuki (橋本 典之)
3B Morimoto Teruyasu (森本 晃叶)
RF Shinguu Kenta (新宮 健太)
C Hayashi Masahiro (林 将広)
1B Katou Masahiko (加藤 雅彦)
LF (17)Sugitani Tsumugi (杉谷 紡生)
P Hara Satoru (原 暁)
2B Mizutaki Kazuki (水滝 一貴)
SS Miyakoda Koudai (都田 紘大)

____________________________________________________________

13:20 - First Pitch!

Top 1st
I get back from getting food to see the leadoff runner on with a base hit. after a sac bunt and the comment on twitter that you should send a prayer for Izumo, Oota hits a 2-run HR to center. 2-0.

Hara gets the next 2 batters out, but they're on hard hit balls. It's going to be a long day for them.

Bottom 1st
Shinguu hits a 2-out line single to right, showing that perhaps they're not totally feckless against the Haru champs, but he's later caught off the base for the 3rd out.

Top 2nd
Well, that's unexpected. Both Murakami and Oohashi strike out to start the 2nd. Though that's followed up with a walk.

But a great throw from Hayashi cuts down Okazawa and Hara gets a 0!

Top 3rd
Hara almost gets his 2nd 1-2-3 inning, but Aoki ruins it with a blooper to center.

No HR from Oota, but he does single to right, putting runners at the corners and causing a timeout by Ueda-kantoku.

But after Fukumoto singles to center making it 3-0, Ueda-kantoku makes a switch putting 1B Katou in at P, and moving Hara to 1B. Katou does get the 3rd out, but Izumo even more on the back foot.

Bottom 3rd
Hara gets his team a baserunner when he singles to center. He's bunted over, but last batter Miyakoda can't make anything of it.

Hashimoto drives a ball to deep left, Osame seems to have a beat on it, but then he turns at the last minute and it's over his head! Hara comes in to score and Izumo's on the board! 3-1!

Morimoto strikes out to end the inning, but there's at least a little fight in the boys from Shimane!

Top 4th
Chiben Gakuen threatens again after a 1-out double by Oohashi. 2 down, Nakamura lines a single to left but it's too hard and Oohashi has to hold at 3rd.

And despite walking Osame to make the bases loaded, Miyakoda makes a great snag of a ball back up the middle and throw to 1st to end the inning without any damage.

Bottom 4th
Of course Izumo can't always be getting opportunities like they did in the 3rd, and go quickly down in order.

Top 5th
Katou perhaps becoming a little more hittable, Oota drives a ball to deep center, but Hashimoto presses against the fence to make the catch for the first out.

2 down and Takahashi just drops in a single in front of the sliding Shinguu. But that's all they get as Murakami drives a ball into the wind in right and it dies to Shinguu for the 3rd out.

Bottom 5th
One down, Hara hits a grounder to the left side. Oohashi can't get to it, but Nakamura runs it down! His throw to 1st is wide and allows Hara to reach 2nd! Izumo could get within 1!

Ueda-kantoku pulling the strings again sending in #13 Tsugeue, and he rips into one, but Oota makes the snag for the 2nd out - leaving it to #9 Miyakoda.

Count runs full...

Fouls one off...

But he strikes out on a 144 kph fastball that Murakami put some extra on and the side is retired. Same score at break, but there isn't the same feeling you had with Izumo that you had with Saku Chousei.

Leadoff walk to Oohashi gets compounded when Okazawa's push bunt is fielded by everyone, leaving no one at 1st.  After a sca bunt, Osame lays down another bunt and again everyone goes to field it. No one is out, and a run scores to boot, 4-1.

After a pop fly, Oota has a chance to put the game out of reach.

But instead, Hara gets him up and in to pop out to short. Inning over, but Chiben Gakuen is able to play add-on.

Bottom 6th
Even still Izumo is getting base runners. Hashimoto hits a grounder to 2nd that a charging Oota boots.

But they try putting the game in motion, and Hashimoto is out by a mile.

You're down 3!

Shinguu gets a 2-out base hit, but noting unfortunately comes of it.

7th Inning
The lucky 7th comes and goes without much incident.

Top 8th
Chiben Gakuen begins putting on the pressure. Leadoff hit from Oohashi is followed by back to back extra base hits over the LF scoring 2 runs and making it 6-1, prompting Ueda-kantoku to put the ace back on the mound.

He gets the last 2 outs, the latter thanks to a great diving stop by Hashimoto, but this game well in hand now.

Rest of game
Izumo provides little resistance afterwards and move on with the 6-1 victory. Izumo certainly was going to be on the losing end, but they did well for first timers - especially when facing the haru champions.

You're not going to get a lot to read off of this game, rather it's a way for Chiben Gakuen to acclimate themselves to the tournament. 6 days off to prepare for their next game should be a big help.

98th Natsu Koushien - Day 1, Game 1 - Saku Chousei (Nagano) v Naruto (Tokushima)

Since I hope to have all team reviews up and they're by game, please refer to those for analysis on both teams.

Saku Chousei (Nagano)
3B Sakakura Ryoutarou (阪倉 涼太郎)
CF Hanaoka Ryouta (花岡 遼太)
SS Motoyama Hiyuu (元山 飛優)
RF Kouda Naohiro (甲田 尚大)
1B Nakamura Yoshiki (中村 禄樹)
LF (8)Hanaoka Daisuke (花岡 大輔)
C Miyaishi Kai (宮石 翔生)
2B Suzuki Takashi (鈴木 貴士)
P Kobayashi Reo (小林 玲雄)

Naruto (Tokushima)
SS Hino Koutarou (日野 洸太郎)
2B Kamata Kouhei (鎌田 航平)
1B Fuji Yoshimoto (冨士 佳資)
CF Tezuka Kaito (手束 海斗)
C Sahara Yuudai (佐原 雄大)
RF Yatake Masaya (矢竹 将弥)
P Kawano Ryuusei (河野 竜生)
LF Watanabe Yuuya (渡辺 裕哉)
3B Takeishi Ren (武石 蓮)

____________________________________________________________

10:32 - First Pitch!

Top 1st
Sakakura with a shallow liner that Yatake charges and makes a shoestring catch. Ryouta quickly gives his team their first base hit. Motoyama's chopper to 3rd is slow enough to allow him to beat out the DP.

Early on though, it seems like Kawano isn't really fooling the batters. His pitches are up and when the batters do swing they're not missing.

Oh wow! Takeishi snags a liner that had extra bases written all over it! 3 outs, but Saku Chousei already making good contact.

Bottom 1st
Kobayashi meanwhile walks his first batter and he is bunted to 2nd.

Fuji tries to mash the slow curve, but can't square it up and grounds out to 2nd.

He's not looking all that great either. Up 1-2 on Tezuka, he cannot get him to chase 2 balls out of the zone.

UH OH.

Tezuka obliterates a ball right down the middle and that is gone! 2-run HR puts Naruto up 2-0!

Things aren't getting any better as he gives up a single and walks another batter when he again fails to get them to chase. Worse yet, there's already a reliever up in the bullpen.

But perhaps he gets a sympathy strike on his opposing counterpart and thus ends the inning - but not before the first shots have been fired by Naruto.

Top 2nd
Two quick outs, but Kawano leaves one over the plate and Miyaishi drives that over the RF head to the wall for a triple.

And then Kawano hits a batter making things a bit tenuous. He even gets the count full to his counterpart before finally finishing him off with a fastball inside.

What looked like an inning to settle down became anything but, and Kawano will need to continue building on each inning.

Bottom 2nd
First pitch groundout from Watanabe, but Kobayashi still struggling with his control, leaving pitches way to high and walking the #9 batter in Takeishi,

Hino showing bunt with 1 down, but I'd rather let him see a few to see if Kobayashi continues to have control issues. And in fact after one attempt, he's swinging away. But he works the count full...

And hits one through the right side! Takeishi goes to 3rd and that will be it for Kobayshi. #11 Shiozawa comes in and not a moment too soon.

Then promptly gives up a shot back up the middle. 3-0.

Shiozawa does at least get a K when Fuji swings at a ball in the dirt.

But a mixup on a pickoff throw to 2nd allows both runners to advance. Which seems fine given that's it's an open base for Tezuka.

And he's crushing balls left and right, but foul.

Shiozawa thinks he has strike 3 on a ball outside, but the umpire won't give it to him (and this is where umps can give a very wide zone). He eventually loses him to load the bases.

Sahara trying to give his best Tezuka impersonation, driving a ball down the right field line, but foul. Instead though, Shiozawa finally gets his team out of the jam by getting him to chase a ball in the dirt for the 3rd out.

Top 3rd
Kawano meanwhile settling in. He gets a 1-2-3 inning, with the help of a favorable bounce. One down, Ryouta hits one off of Kawano to Hino at SS, who completes the play.

Bottom 3rd
Shiozawa given a clean slate, gets 3 routine groundouts. I think it was a mistake not to make him the starter.

Top 4th
The rhythm that Kawano had goes awry. After a 1-out 4 pitch walk, he gives up a hard single to left by Daisuke and a ball through the right side by Miyaishi to load the bases, causing Moriwaki-kantoku to call time.

Suzuki gets too aggressive and swings on a fastball up and away for the 2nd out.

Shiozawa meanwhile is patient and gets the count to 3-1, but Kawano gets a call on the inside edge for strike 2, and then another on the outside edge for strike 3! Saku Chousei is denied!

Bottom 4th
Shiozawa 's run of 6 retired batters ends when he issues 4 pitch walk to Kamata. But he's wiped out when Miyaishi throws him out trying to steal 2nd.

Top 5th
2 outs for Saku Chousei and Motoyama singles to right.

Kawano has Motoyama taking off too early to 2nd and they have him picked off! But the throw from Fuji is wide and as a result Hino can't field it! Motoyama slides in safely! Now a base hit could get Saku Chousei on the board!

And Kouda lines a ball just off of Kawano's head! It's to center and Motoyama is waved home! Throw in is slightly offline and it's a 3-1 ballgame!

Nakamura strikes out to retire the side, but there's a positive the team can build on if Shiozawa can shut the door.

Bottom 5th
Tezuka certainly not making that easy as he hits a one-out single to right...

And then steals 2nd on the next batter...

Shiozawa perhaps laboring a bit, walking Sahara to put runners at 1st and 2nd. Is the reason why he's not the ace because of his stamina?

Yatake grounder to 3rd, but Sakakura delays just a little, goes to 2nd for 1, throw to 1st, in the dirt and gets away from Nakamura! However Tezuka not going home and there's 2 outs.

Kawano is hit though and the bases are loaded!

#11 Nakayama comes in to hit for Watanabe looking to blow it open.

Shot to 3rd, diving stab by Sakakura! Tags 3rd and the inning is over! Shiozawa in his first self-made jam, but he gets out of it! We're at the break with Naruto leading 3-1, but Saku Chousei building confidence.

Top 6th
Of course I say that and Daisuke goes down on 3 straight to start the post-break.

Kawano perhaps being careful with Miyaishi issues him a free pass.

Suzuki meanwhile can't seem to lay off the high fastball. Chases another one high and away for 2 out, and Shiozawa grounds to 3rd quickly after.

Bottom 6th
Shiozawa should have had 2 outs in the 6th, but Hino's grounder takes a high hop at Nakamura and goes for a base hit.

While he's still missing bats he's getting less and less effective it seems.

Kamata lays down the perfect push bunt, and Shiozawa's shovel toss off the ground goes over the 1B head! Everyone takes an extra base and he's in a bone fide jam now!

Fuji grounds to 1st, and Nakamura runs the runner down! Hino can't advance and there's 2 out! Only problem is, that brings up Tezuka.

But he chases an outside pitch and lines out to SS keeping the deficit at 2 runs!

Top 7th
Saku Chousei gets their first leadoff batter on as Sakakura singles to center. He's bunted to 2nd.

Motoyama grounder to the right side, and it's through! Sakakura scores and it's a 3-2 ballgame! Naruto unable to put the game away has let Saku Chousei back in it!

Kouda grounds into a textbook 4-6-3 double play, but the damage is being done!

Bottom 7th
The lucky 7 for Naruto does not go as well as they are retired on just 7 pitches! It feels like they'll have to fall over the finish line else they may lose this!

Top 8th
Saku Chousei though making things easy on Kawano swinging early and recording 2 quick groundouts.

Miyaishi also hacking away, but still has the discerning eye, working the count full and then punishing a hanging curve to left center for a double. He's a HR short of the cycle, but more importantly he's the tying run in scoring position.

#8 Sasaki comes up to hit, but he grounds out to 1st. Dives into 1st head sliding and severely slowed down, but it wouldn't have mattered.

Bottom 8th
Another string of 6 consecutive outs is broken again when Tateishi is plunked by Shiozawa with 1 down. Naruto playing for 1 insurance run as Hino bunts the runner over.

Shiozawa finishes up his relief stint by striking out Kamata. It's a great relief stint, but maybe too late.

Top 9th
#13 Kurumi Yoshinobu comes in for Nakayama to play CF, moving Tezuka to LF.

PH #7 Okado grounds out to 1st.

Sakakura grounds to left side, Tateishi makes a great pick and throws to 1st for the 2nd out.

And Ryouta strikes out to end the game!

Where Saku Chousei was about to be level, Kawano shuts the door to win 3-2!

It wasn't the prettiest of games, and they had chances to blow the game open, but in the end Naruto holds on. None of the pitchers looked all that great on the mound and that always left the door open one way or the other.

You have to figure against stiffer competition, Naruto and specifically Kawano will run into trouble. But for now they can enjoy the win.

98th Koushien - Team Analysis by Group (Day 7)

My analysis will seem a bit weird, but as Chiben Gakuen showed last year, you can't just analyze teams in a vacuum, you also have to be cognizant of where the teams are in the bracket to determine perhaps how far they will go. There are no more brackets of death per se, but 1st round teams still draw into a day for the 2nd round. So for at least the first 2 rounds, there are pseudo brackets where teams have a fixed probability of facing each other. So with that in mind, we start with the Day 7 participants:

*Note - Pitching and Batting grades are given by Strength/Depth

Favorites to advance out of Day 7 - Kisaradzu Sougou, Meitoku Gijyuku, Chiben Gakuen, Soushi Gakuen (provided Chiben Gakuen doesn't draw into their game)

Day 7
Game 1 - 2nd Round
Kisaradzu Sougou (Chiba) - Pitching B+/F, Offense C+/C+

  • def Kashiwa Minami 2-1
  • def Kemigawa 3-0
  • def Asahi Nougyou 11-0 (5)
  • def Senshuudai Matsudo 4-3
  • def Toukaidai Ichihara Bouyou 1-0
  • def Chiba Keizaidai Fuzoku 6-5
  • def Shiritsu Funabashi 3-2
Kisaradzu Sougou is another weird case. In the Haru Koushien, they surprisingly defeated Osaka Touin before losing at the death to Shuugakukan in the Best 8. Then they had a couple of close games to start the Chiba taikai before defeating 3 straight top level clubs in Senshuudai Matsudo, Toukaidai Ichihara Bouyou and Chiba Keizaidai Fuzoku. And that doesn't even include a Tier 3 school in Shiritsu Funabashi (you can almost throw in Kemigawa as well). So perhaps the MO of this team is that they can compete against the best, but like Chiben Gakuen, may leave you on the edge of your seat.

Ace Hayakawa Takahisa (早川 隆久) is for all intents and purposes the pitching staff of Kisaradzu Sougou. Not that that's bad mind you - his 9.78 K/9 and 1.76 BB/9 for the most part held up against the top competition. Now we probably shouldn't expect those exact rates to continue (he was 6/1 against Osaka Touin), but it's also not like they're going to fall off the map either. While they did use relievers in the game against Kemigawa, it's probably safe to say that if they're bringing in a reliever, they're in a lot of trouble.

The team's weakness in the spring was the bottom of the lineup, and it doesn't seem to have been completely fixed since then although C Oosawa Shou (大沢 翔) was the only player to get a base hit in the final 3 games. It's certainly not as big of a black hole as other teams, but they're constantly looking for that one key hit to bring in the runs.

Karatsu Shougyou (Saga) - Pitching D+/F, Batting C-/C

  • def Kishima Shougyou 3-0
  • def Kanzaki Seimei 7-3
  • def Kanzaki 5-1
  • def Ryuukoku (forfeit/disqualification)
  • def Saga Shougyou 16-5
That semifinal game (or non-game as it was) was one of the more bizare things I've seen. Ryuuoku had to forfeit because of a fire in their clubhouse due to smoking. Usually these things happen during the off-season when sanctions happen before the tournament starts. In this case it disqualified a team in the semifinals! This certainly gave Karatsu Shougyou an advantage by getting another day's rest.

It had to have helped ace Taniguchi Ryuusei (谷口 優成), who sports the 2nd worst K/9 rate of all the aces (3.53)! His walk rate is at least low as well (1.77), but it's certainly not a good sign. Not to mention the fact that Ryuukoku as the defending champs would have given them their sternest test. Now, the only real game we can go off of is the finals, and even that has some qualifiers attached to it as well.

Even more questionable is that the bottom of the lineup was the most consistent. SS Yokoyama Kaito (横山 魁人), CF Hirakawa Shouya (平川 将也) and 2B Maeda Kaisei (前田 海成) were 14-31 with 8 RBIs. But if these were your better hitters, why are they at the bottom of the lineup when the top of the lineup was struggling?

Game 2 - 2nd Round
Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi) - Pitching C/D+, Batting C/C

  • def Sukumo Kougyou 6-0
  • def Kochi Kougyou 8x-1 (8)
  • def Kochi Shougyou 2-1
  • def Nakamura 4-2

Meitoku Gijyuku is here for the 7th straight year, and so when you think of them you think of a strong team. It didn't feel like that long ago that Kishi had brought the team to the semifinals where they lost to Osaka Touin.

And yet, that was 5 years ago...

Since then, the team has had less and less success to the point that the last two appearances they have failed to get past the first game. It kinda feels that way here too. 4 games, only 1 against a quality team where they won 2-1 while being out-hit.

Yes, ace Nakano Yasutoshi (中野 恭聖) had a K rate of 11.67 and a BB rate of just 1, and the game against Kochi Shougyou he struck out 9 while walking 2. But unless he's figured something out, he's due to repeat his Haru Koushien line of 3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 K, 1 BB.

The team was offensively weak as well at Haru Koushien, and even in their victories, the bottom of the lineup is still a big weakness that will continue to glare, though maybe not in their first game.

Sakai (Tottori) - Pitching D/F, Batting C-/C-

  • def Kurayoshi Kita 10-8
  • def Yonago Higashi 7-6
  • def Tottori Jyouhoku 7-3
  • def Yonago Shouin 19-4

Tottori as a whole did not impress me throughout the process and while I'm happy that Sakai made it to Koushien, I'm afraid the stay is probably short-lived.

First the road only includes a win against Tottori Jyouhoku, which is a plus, but if you look at the other games, while they did win, ace Okiya Naoto's (隠家 直人) peripherals were terrible - sporting not only the lowest K rate at 2.48, but the worst walk rate at 5.9 as well.

Offensively the team relies heavily on their 2-3-4 hitters of 2B Takatsuka Koudai (高塚 孔大), RF Katsube Kouhei (勝部 浩平) and LF Shiota Kaito (塩田 海斗), but they will be relative unknowns on the big stage.

Game 3 - 2nd Round
Soushi Gakuen (Okayama) - Pitching C+/D, Batting C+/C+
  • def Tsuyama Higashi 8-0
  • def Tsuyama 10-0 (5)
  • def Okayama Higashi Shougyou 5-1
  • def Okayama Ridai Fuzoku 6-0
  • def Okayama Sanyou 7-1
  • def Tamano Kounan 4-1
Soushi Gakuen's title win almost should come with an asterisk. A poor call by the umpires that allowed their opponent Tamano Kounan to think they had won, which was subsequently reversed, changed the dynamic of the game irreparably.

Oddly, ace Takada Housei (高田 萌生) despite supposedly being able to bring the heat, has not really improved his strikeout rate (7.82), though at least he appears to be limiting the walks (1.89).

He'll need that because he has to improve on the numbers he posted at Haru Koushien to have any chance, 5 runs against Takamatsu Shougyou just won't cut it.

Offensively, we need to see the bottom of the lineup improve. They weren't there during Haru Koushien to support the top half of the lineup, and maybe if not for the miscall may not have been there for the finals either.

Day 1
Game 1 - 1st Round
Saku Chousei (Nagano) - Pitching C-/C, Batting C/C-
  • def Hotaka Shougyou 4-1
  • def Komagane Kougyou 7x-0 (8)
  • def Toukaidai Suwa 9-2 (7)
  • def Souzou Gakuen 6-1
  • def Komoro Shougyou 6-3
  • def Matsushou Gakuen 6-2
Saku Chousei got it pretty easy, the only competition they faced was Matsushou Gakuen in the finals, and while they've been to Koushien in the past, they're solidified as a Tier 3 school. Even more interesting is that the starter for that game, Shiozawa Taki (塩沢 太規) wears #10, and that the man wearing the ace number, Kobayashi Reo (小林 玲雄), struggled in his last outing against Komoro Shougyou, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits while only recording 1 out. Don't be surprised if Shiozawa will be the starter for the team.

The only problem is that Shiozawa has a K/9 rate of just 6.17 against this competition, while holding a 3.47 BB/9 rate. He did strike out 9 in the finals, but it doesn't inspire any confidence. #17 Andou Hokuto (安藤 北斗) and SS Motoyama Hiyuu (元山 飛優) saw some time on the mound, but not in meaningful situations.

Probably their most consistent hitter is 2B Suzuki Takashi (鈴木 貴士) who recorded a hit in the final 3 games, going 5-11, though he didn't have a set position in the lineup, even batting 8th in the final. The team as a whole doesn't seem all that willing to take walks, and a 6 hit performance against Komoro Shougyou isn't great either. The holes aren't apparent, but will show up.

Naruto (Tokushima) - Pitching C- or C/C, Batting C-/C-
  • def Itano 6-1
  • def Tokushima Kita 5-2
  • def Tomioka Nishi 5-3
  • def Naruto Uzushio 2-1
Just 4 games for Naruto to win the title, that's the state of affairs in rural prefectures. Ace Kawano Ryuusei (河野 竜生) has some gaudy statistics (10.29 K/9, 3.54 BB/9), but the only game you can really take any strong numbers from would be the finals. There he struck out 7 and walked 1, which wouldn't be bad if you looked at the game before and saw that he issued 8 free passes. And yes, I do set a double standard. You can't take the good, but you can most certainly take the bad, because against a weaker team, it shouldn't happen. The only other pitcher to see action is Ozaki Kaisei (尾崎 海晴) who pitched just 3 innings, giving up no runs, 1 hit, struck out 6, and walked 1.

And you wonder why Ozaki isn't the ace either, because both pitched in the 2015 Haru Koushien loss against Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku. In that game, Kawano gave up 7 runs in 5.1 IP, while Ozaki gave up 1 (unearned), and struck out more batters (though it was garbage time). It's rather boggling in my opinion. If Ozaki gets more time on the mound I think they'll have a better chance for success.

Offensively the team does get base hits, but a 0.303 in the 4 games is too low given the competition and Moriwaki-kantoku isn't shy in subbing players in and out between games. On the overall, no one player really stands out and that may lead to some non-descript ABs in the game.

Game 2  - 1st Round
Izumo (Yamaguchi) - Pitching C-/C, Batting D/D
  • def Gotsu 5-0
  • def Masuda 2-1
  • def Hamada Shougyou 10-1 (7)
  • def Masuda Higashi 4x-3
  • def Taisha 4-3
  • def Risshoudai Shounan 6-1
Izumo did face some of the tougher teams in the final 3 games (Masuda Higashi this past 12 months seemed like a sneaky team and Izumo almost lost), but the they didn't really dominate over them. Even the final against Risshoudai Shounan, the team had 10 walks.

Their best 2 hitters sit atop the lineup in CF Hashimoto Noriyuki (橋本 典之) and 3B Morimoto Teruyasu(?) (森本 晃叶) who were a combined 12-20 with 5 RBIs. Beyond them, and it's sketchy at best, and those types of black holes are death for a team.

Ace Hara Satoru (原 暁) carries a 8.03 K/9 rate and a 3.16 BB/9 rate, but he walked 4 in the Masuda Higashi game and 5 in the Risshoudai Shounan game while striking out 6 in both. So the numbers aren't probably as good as the totals dictate.

The reliever is actually their 1B, Katou Masahiko (加藤 雅彦). In his stint in the Taisha game, he went 5.1 IP, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits, striking out (and walking) 2. Not stellar numbers, and perhaps was considered servicable in the prefecturals. Whether that translates to the big stage is another story.

Chiben Gakuen (Nara) - Pitching B- to C+/C-, Batting C+/B
  • def Takada Shougyou 8-1 (7)
  • def Shikino 5x4 (11)
  • def Nara 8-1
  • def Kooriyama 6-5 (10)
  • def Tenri 6-5
If you looked at the record here, you wouldn't have thought that they were the ones who won Haru Koushien - especially with three 1-run games. Now, at least in playing Kooriyama and Tenri you could argue that they were playing the better teams in the prefecture, but this is still a bit concerning.

Ace Murakami Shouki (村上 頌樹) had rates of 8.03 and 2.23, but in the final against Tenri he only struck out 1 and walked 3. Now, he wasn't an overpowering pitcher at Haru Koushien, so looking for strong K rates may be futile. The real question is if he can continue to utilize his control here in the summer. Given the other teams they may face in Round 2, he may be able to ease his way in.

The offense, which was doing just enough at Haru Koushien, was doing just enough here too. Two of the more consistent batters are 3B Oohashi Shunpei (大橋 駿平) and 2B Osame Daichi (納 大地). There are no real black holes in the lineup, which is good, but always toeing the line in a single elimination format is playing with fire.

Game 3 - 1st Round
Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka) - Pitching D+/D, Batting C+/B
  • def Kita-Kyushu Tousen 9x-2 (7)
  • def Yamato Seiran 13-0 (5)
  • def Houkoku Gakuen 7-3
  • def Nishi-Nippon Tankidai Fuzoku 8-3
  • def Jiyuugaoka 12x-11 (10)
  • def Shinsoukan 8-0
  • def Fukuoka Koudai Jyoutou 4-3
For such a long road that is required in Fukuoka, it's a wonder why teams don't do better at Koushien. Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku survived the trip this time around, but there are causes for concern.

First above all is ace Fujimoto Kaito (藤本 海斗), who has K and BB rates of 4.30 and 3.99 and in fact walked more than he struck out in the final 2 games, and that is a big red flag. And there doesn't appear to be any help behind him either as the only other main reliever was Maeda Ryuusei (前田 隆誠) and he gave up 5 runs in just 1.1 inning of work in that crazy Jiyuugaoka game where they blew a 11-5 lead in the 9th.

Offensively, someone who may have played their way to a starting position is 3B Torii Ren (鳥井 蓮), who came in as a defensive replacement in the Jiyuugaoka game and went 2-4, then in the final was 2-2 with 2 RBIs as a starter. And oddly, it seems the bottom of their lineup is doing better than the top of the lineup. It's strange, but at least it shows that they have some depth in their lineup, even if it's upside down.

Moriokadai Fuzoku (Iwate) - Pitching C-(?)/C, Batting C(?)/C
  • def Morioka Nougyou 16-1 (5)
  • def Fukuoka 7-0 (8)
  • def Kozukata 6-0
  • def Takada 14-0 (5)
  • def Senshuudai Kitami 13-3 (8)
  • def Ichinoseki Gakuin 1-0
Moriokadai Fuzoku dominated pretty much all the way through until the final when of all teams Ichinoseki Gakuin gave them their toughest match.

This puts me at a quandry. Up until the final game, Moriokadai Fuzoku looked like a world beater. But against a team that has more than disappointed in recent years, they looked very beatable.

So which team is it?

Despite the domination ace Miura Mizuki (三浦 瑞樹) was not a world beater - sporting a below average K rate (7.94) and an above average BB rate (3.57). That's definitely not a plus.

Offensively, it's hard to make heads or tails of the squad. The team doesn't seem to strike out or walk a lot, but after that there's little we can glean from the results other than the last game is enough of a red flag that would make me want to have them prove that they're better than that 1-0 win.

Thursday, August 4, 2016

The draw is out!

So, as perhaps you may have heard me on the Yakyu DB livestream, the draw is out, and we have our matchups as follows (brackets can be found here):

Day 1
Round 1 (to Day 7) - Game 1 - Saku Chousei (Nagano) v Naruto (Tokushima)
Round 1 (to Day 7) - Game 2 - Izumo (Shimane) v Chiben Gakuen (Nara)
Round 1 (to Day 7) - Game 3 - Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku (Fukuoka) v Moriokadai Fuzoku (Iwate)

Day 2
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 1 - Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Mie) v Tsuruoka Higashi (Yamagata)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 2 - Chuukyou (Gifu) v Oita (Oita)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 3 - Takagawa Gakuen (Yamaguchi) v Riseisha (Osaka)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 4 - Touhou (Aichi) v Hokuriku (Fukui)

Day 3
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 1 - Shiritsu Amagasaki (Hyogo) v Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Aomori)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 2 - Yamanashi Gakuin (Yamanashi) v Nagasaki Shougyou (Nagasaki)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 3 - Tohoku (Miyagi) v Yokohama (Kanagawa)
Round 1 (to Day 8) - Game 4 - Oumi (Shiga) v Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki)

Day 4
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 1 - Kanto Dai-ichi (Higashi Tokyo) v Hiroshima Shinjyou (Hiroshima)
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 2 - Kyoto Shouei (Kyoto) v Shounan (Kagoshima)
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 3 - Seiryou (Ishikawa) v Shiritsu Wakayama (Wakayama)
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 4 - Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama) v Oomagari Kougyou (Akita)

Day 5
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 1 - Hachiouji (Nishi Tokyo) v Nichinan Gakuen (Miyazaki)
Round 1 (to Day 9) - Game 2 - Toyama Dai-ichi (Toyama) v Chuuetsu (Niigata)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 3 - Kadena (Okinawa) v Maebashi Ikuei (Gunma)

Day 6
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 1 - Seikou Gakuin (Fukushima) v Clark Kokusai (Kita Hokkaido)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 2 - Matsuyama Seiryou (Ehime) v Hokkai (Minami Hokkaido)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 3 - Jinsei Gakuen (Kagawa) v Sakushin Gakuin (Tochigi)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 4 - Shuugakukan (Kumamoto) v Tokoha Gakuen Kikugawa (Shizuoka)

Day 7
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 1 - Kisaradzu Sougou (Chiba) v Karatsu Shougyou (Saga)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 2 - Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi) v Sakai (Tottori)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 3 - Soushi Gakuen (Okayama) v TBD (Day 1 winner)
Round 2 (to Round 3) - Game 4 - TBD (Day 1 winner)TBD (Day 1 winner)

I should have a translated excel bracket up in the next day, following that with team-by-team analysis and finally I hope to have the rosters translated by opening ceremonies. I hope.

Monday, August 1, 2016

Natsu Koushien Qualifying - Teams who have punched their ticket

And we are done! Here are all the teams who have qualified! I don't think I have to tell you what the colors mean to me:
  • Kita Hokkaido - Clark Kokusai (Private, 1st apperance)
  • Minami Hokkaido - Hokkai (Private, 37th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Aomori - Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Private, 8th appearance, 4th in last 6 years)
  • Akita - Oomagari Kougyou (Public1st apperance)
  • Yamagata - Tsuroka Higashi (Private, 5th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Iwate - Moriokadai Fuzoku (Private, 9th appearance, 3rd in last 5 years
  • Miyagi - Touhoku (Private, 22nd appearance, 1st in 7 years) 
  • Fukushima - Seikou Gakuin (Private, 13th appearance, 10th consecutive, all 13 since 2001)
  • Ibaraki - Jyousou Gakuin (Private, 16th appearance, 1st in 3 years, 10th appearance since 2001)
  • Tochigi - Sakushin Gakuin (Private, 12th appearance, 6th consecutive7th appearance in last 8 years)
  • Gunma - Maebashi Ikuei (Private, 2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Saitama - Hanasaki Tokuharu (Private, 4th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Chiba - Kisaradzu Sougou  (Private, 5th appearance, 1st in 3 years, all 5 since 2003)
  • Nishi Tokyo - Hachiouji (Private1st apperance)
  • Higashi Tokyo - Kanto Dai-ichi (Private, 7th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Kanagawa - Yokohama (Private, 16th appearance, 1st in 3 years, 8th appearance since 2001)
  • Yamanashi - Yamanashi Gakuin (Private, 6th appearance, 1st in 5 years)
  • Nagano - Saku Chousei (Private, 7th appearance, 3rd in last 5 years)
  • Niigata - Chuuetsu (Private, 10th appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Toyama - Toyama Dai-ichi  (Private, 2nd appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Ishikawa - Seiryou  (Private, 18th appearance, 1st in 2 years, 3rd in last 4 years)
  • Fukui - Hokuriku (Private, 3rd appearance, 1st in 24 years)
  • Shizuoka - Tokoha Kikugawa (Private, 5th appearance, 1st in 3 years)
  • Aichi - Touhou  (Private, 17th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
  • Gifu - Chuukyou  (Private, 6th appearance, 1st in 14 years)
  • Mie - Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Private, 2nd appearance, 1st in 6 years)
  • Shiga - Oumi (Private, 12th appearance, 1st in 2 years, 7th appearance since 2001)
  • Kyoto - Kyoto Shouei (Private1st apperance)
  • Nara - Chiben Gakuen (Private18th appearance, 1st in 2 years, 7th appearance since 2001)
  • Wakayama - Shiritsu Wakayama (Public, 5th appearance, 1st in 2 years)
  • Osaka - Riseisha  (Private, 3rd appearance, 1st in 6 years)
  • Hyogo - Shiritsu Amagasaki (Public, 2nd appearance, 1st in 33 years)
  • Okayama - Soushi Gakuen (Private1st apperance)
  • Hiroshima - Hiroshima Shinjyou (Private, 2nd appearance, 2nd consecutive)
  • Tottori - Sakai (Public, 8th appearance, 1st in 9 years)
  • Shimane - Izumo (Public1st apperance)
  • Yamaguchi - Takagawa Gakuen (Private1st apperance)
  • Kagawa - Jinsei Gakuen (Private, 11th appearance, 1st in 9 years)
  • Tokushima - Naruto  (Public, 11th appearance, 5th consecutive6th appearance in last 7 years)
  • Ehime - Matsuyama Seiryou (Private1st apperance)
  • Kochi - Meitoku Gijyuku (Private, 18th appearance, 7th consecutive12th appearance since 2000)
  • Fukuoka - Kyushu Kousaidai Fuzoku (Private, 7th appearance, 3rd consecutive5th appearance in last 8 years)
  • Saga - Karatsu Shougyou (Public, 5th appearance, 1st in 5 years)
  • Nagasaki - Nagasaki Shougyou (Public, 7th appearance, 1st in 29 years)
  • Miyazaki - Nichinan Gakuen (Private, 8th appearance, 1st in 2 years, 6th appearance since 2000)
  • Oita - Oita (Private, 2nd appearance, both in last 3 years)
  • Kumamoto - Shuugakukan (Private, 2nd appearance, 1st in 15 years)
  • Kagoshima - Shounan (Private, 19th appearance, 1st in 3 years, 8th appearance since 2000)
  • Okinawa - Kadena (Public, 1st appearance)