And now to the small island of Shikoku and their champions Eimei. I know the school is definitely a contender more often than not to get to Koushien, but I'm a bit surprised to find this is their first Senbatsu.
Much like Yonago Kita, they got quite a bit of home cooking. All their games - prefectural and super-regional, were held at Rexxam Stadium, less than an hour's drive from their HS. That had to play a factor in breezing through the prefecturals with the only tight game being in the quarterfinals against Sanbonmatsu where they won 6-5 in 11. They continued their assault in the super-regionals defeating the likes of Naruto, and Kochi before defeating Imabari Nishi 5-3 in the title game. They even gave Tsuruga Kehi a heck of a battle at Meiji Jingu before finally falling 7-5.
Ace Tanaka Kanta (田中 寛大) handled most of the pitching duties, though wasn't generally asked to go a full game. He has a 2-seamer along with the standard fare, and supposedly hit the 140 mark. His strikeout rate isn't too great, but he's stingy with the walks to mitigate that. Tanaka Kouta (中西 幸汰) is the other part of this duo, but he was left off the roster? Instead it's #11 Hamano Taichi (濱野 泰地), who did not perform well year to instill confidence.
Offensively, the team is pointed in the right direction. The team batted 0.352 with an over 0.160 ISO. Again, some of it may be attributable to playing at home. Still, players like 3B Minato Akinobu (湊 亮将) and SS Moriyama Kaiki (森山 海暉) put up some good numbers could be players to watch.
It'll be interesting to see what happens when they get to a neutral field. Oomagari Kougyou is probably one of the softer teams they could have drawn. They did do well against Tsuruga Kehi, but I'm not sure if Hiranuma was at 100%. If they do get past their opening game, they will immediately be put under pressure by what likely will be Urawa Gakuin.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Reviewing the field - Chuugoku/Shikoku floating bid Yonago Kita
Yonago Kita perhaps was the beneficiary of circumstance. They were the best candidate from the Chuugoku region, but in any other year Meitoku Gijyuku would have taken the floating bid. Things is, it is this year and Meitoku got that bid last year. Perhaps loathe to set a precedent, Yonago Kita is the beneficiary, earning their first ever appearance.
But there are problems all over. First, their resume. They almost lost to Kurashiki Higashi in the first round, and then lost to Sakai in the semifinals. They had to Yonago Higashi in the 3rd place game to reach the super-regionals. After a solid win over Risshoudai Shounan in the opening round of the super-regionals, they got some home cooking as the next games were held at the city's municipal stadium. They used that to get a 6-5 win in 13 versus Masuda Higashi, and took Ube Koujyou to the limit eventually falling 1-0.
Second is the pitching. Takahashi Seiichirou (髙橋 晟一朗) wears the ace number, but pitched just 8.2 innings during the run. Which is weird because he can throw in the low 140s with a slider, curve and changeup. However, his problem - and in fact every single pitcher's problem, is that they have issued at least as many walks as they have K's:
But there are problems all over. First, their resume. They almost lost to Kurashiki Higashi in the first round, and then lost to Sakai in the semifinals. They had to Yonago Higashi in the 3rd place game to reach the super-regionals. After a solid win over Risshoudai Shounan in the opening round of the super-regionals, they got some home cooking as the next games were held at the city's municipal stadium. They used that to get a 6-5 win in 13 versus Masuda Higashi, and took Ube Koujyou to the limit eventually falling 1-0.
Second is the pitching. Takahashi Seiichirou (髙橋 晟一朗) wears the ace number, but pitched just 8.2 innings during the run. Which is weird because he can throw in the low 140s with a slider, curve and changeup. However, his problem - and in fact every single pitcher's problem, is that they have issued at least as many walks as they have K's:
- Takahashi Seiichirou - 11 BB vs 5 K
- #10 Uegai Takumi (上貝 巧) - 9 BB vs 8 K
- #11 Fukumoto Ren (福本 廉) - 18 BB vs 15 K
- #18 Kogano Sena (古賀野 世南) - 7 BB vs 7 K
Now, 12 of their 35 walks happened in their last game. Perhaps there are excuses, but being the last game isn't a good sign if competition is better. Uegai and Fukumoto split the majority of the time, but despite Fukumoto's 15 K's, it was good for a 4.50 K/9 rate, which means Uegai's rate is even worse.
Offensively, the team hit 0.314 with their leading hitter being cleanup RF Yasuba Shougo (安場 翔吾) who hit 0.486. Which seems fine, but their SLG was just 0.383, and was actually lower than their OBP (0.388)!!
Jyousou Gakuin at least struggles offensively, so they may be in the game, but if the walks continue to pile up, they could be in trouble early on.
Reviewing the field - Chuugoku runner-up Okayama Ridai Fuzoku
Okayama Ridai Fuzoku has long been in the shadows to teams like Kanzei and Kurashiki Shougyou. They've been on the doorstep for so long you'd think that perhaps it would be returned to sender.
Fortunately, the school has persevered and it has paid off in this Senbatsu appearance - their first in 17 years. They almost ripped themselves up in the first game, pulling out a 6-4 win over Okayama Minami. The rest of the road to the super-regionals went rather smoothly, including an 8-2 win over the aforementioned Kanzei. Ace Nishiyama Masaki (西山 雅貴) was actually rested in the prefectural final against Soushi Gakuen, and still managed to win 3-2.
After that though, it was Nishiyama or bust. He pitched all 4 games, which were 2 back-to-back pairs defeating Kouryou and Kanzei (again!), and securing their bid with a win over Ube Shougyou. The offense finally sputtered out, giving Nishiyama just 1 run of support. Nishiyama did the best he could, but the team would fall 2-1 in 11 innings.
My guess is that Hayakawa-kantoku will go with Nishiyama for as long as he can. #11 Ookuma Ryouga (大熊 崚雅) was his first option as a starter with Nishiyama wasn't an option for him, but with just 4 K's in 12 IP, he doesn't seem viable. His next option is actually 3B Tokuda Yukiya (徳田 夕希也) who seems more serviceable, but not sure by how much. And if they end up going to #18 Tabuchi Maiki (田淵 舞生), if his 1 appearance was any indicator, it's an all hands on deck situation.
Offensively, there are questions. The team hit 0.294, with an ISO less than 0.100 and their SLG just 25 points higher than their OBP. Leadoff batter SS Morita Masahiro (森田 将裕) sets the table by getting on base, while 2B Ishihara Yoshito (石原 吉人) drives them in. The balanced offense at least means that there aren't automatic outs in parts of the lineup, but against stiffer competition and given their lack of power, it'll be that much harder to score runs.
Kisaradzu Sougou isn't a great draw for the first round. They have good pitching that may leave them with little room for error. They're not without their chances early, but they'll need their close to A-game.
Fortunately, the school has persevered and it has paid off in this Senbatsu appearance - their first in 17 years. They almost ripped themselves up in the first game, pulling out a 6-4 win over Okayama Minami. The rest of the road to the super-regionals went rather smoothly, including an 8-2 win over the aforementioned Kanzei. Ace Nishiyama Masaki (西山 雅貴) was actually rested in the prefectural final against Soushi Gakuen, and still managed to win 3-2.
After that though, it was Nishiyama or bust. He pitched all 4 games, which were 2 back-to-back pairs defeating Kouryou and Kanzei (again!), and securing their bid with a win over Ube Shougyou. The offense finally sputtered out, giving Nishiyama just 1 run of support. Nishiyama did the best he could, but the team would fall 2-1 in 11 innings.
My guess is that Hayakawa-kantoku will go with Nishiyama for as long as he can. #11 Ookuma Ryouga (大熊 崚雅) was his first option as a starter with Nishiyama wasn't an option for him, but with just 4 K's in 12 IP, he doesn't seem viable. His next option is actually 3B Tokuda Yukiya (徳田 夕希也) who seems more serviceable, but not sure by how much. And if they end up going to #18 Tabuchi Maiki (田淵 舞生), if his 1 appearance was any indicator, it's an all hands on deck situation.
Offensively, there are questions. The team hit 0.294, with an ISO less than 0.100 and their SLG just 25 points higher than their OBP. Leadoff batter SS Morita Masahiro (森田 将裕) sets the table by getting on base, while 2B Ishihara Yoshito (石原 吉人) drives them in. The balanced offense at least means that there aren't automatic outs in parts of the lineup, but against stiffer competition and given their lack of power, it'll be that much harder to score runs.
Kisaradzu Sougou isn't a great draw for the first round. They have good pitching that may leave them with little room for error. They're not without their chances early, but they'll need their close to A-game.
Reviewing the field - Chuugoku champions Ube Koujyou
Now we make our way to the western part of Japan, starting with the Chuugoku champions Ube Koujyou. They're only making their 2nd appearance overall, and their 1st in 12 years.
The team sandwiched a pair of tough games between complete blowouts. They struggled with Takagawa Gakuen and Seki Kougyou, winning 6-4 and 6-5, but then scoring double digits in their other 3 games in the prefecturals.
The blowouts continued in the super-regionals with another 15-0 win over Saijyou Nougyou. But once they ran into stiffer competition, they immediately thereafter had to battle in low scoring affairs. Soushi Gakuen, Yonago Kita and Okayama Ridai Fuzoku in the finals the largest margin of victory was a mere 2 runs.
But perhaps the biggest red flag is that when they went to go play Toukai Dai-yon in the Meiji Jingu tournament, they were routed 9-1 in 7 innings.
Ace Uenishi Ranma (上西 嵐満) is about the only pitcher Ozaki-kantoku trusts. #10 Nakasugi Naomichi (中杉 直道) and #11 Koba Yuudai (木場 優大) were used, but only when the game was pretty much in hand (in either direction). I'm not sure I'm reading the scouting reports right, but it might appear that he has a horizontal, vertical, and some form of short slider. While his K/9 rate is very close to 1, it dropped in the final couple of games, and should be regressed to competition.
Offensively, the team hit a neat 0.330 with an ISO of 0.128. But the double digit hit totals earlier in their run completely vanished once they passed the first round of the super-regionals. They did walk more, but that too vanished when they got 0 against Toukai Dai-yon in the Meiji Jingu taikai. Their best hitter by far is cleanup batter LF Okada Katsuki (岡田 克樹) going 15-33 and slugging 0.606.
Ace Uenishi Ranma (上西 嵐満) is about the only pitcher Ozaki-kantoku trusts. #10 Nakasugi Naomichi (中杉 直道) and #11 Koba Yuudai (木場 優大) were used, but only when the game was pretty much in hand (in either direction). I'm not sure I'm reading the scouting reports right, but it might appear that he has a horizontal, vertical, and some form of short slider. While his K/9 rate is very close to 1, it dropped in the final couple of games, and should be regressed to competition.
Offensively, the team hit a neat 0.330 with an ISO of 0.128. But the double digit hit totals earlier in their run completely vanished once they passed the first round of the super-regionals. They did walk more, but that too vanished when they got 0 against Toukai Dai-yon in the Meiji Jingu taikai. Their best hitter by far is cleanup batter LF Okada Katsuki (岡田 克樹) going 15-33 and slugging 0.606.
First up Ube Koujyou gets Kendai Takasaki. They're fortunate in the fact that despite Kendai Takasaki's potential, they tend to play to the level of their competition - which might give them a fighting chance. It is perhaps unlikely though, but it's a non-zero chance nonetheless.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Reviewing the field - Kinki quarterfinalist Oumi
And now the final team to make the field from the Kinki region, Shiga's Oumi.
To be honest, it was pretty much a simple process of elimination to determine that Oumi would be the final team to advance.
They probably played the fewest number of games for any of the qualifying teams, playing 5 in the prefecturals and 2 more in the super-regionals. They weren't tested until the prefectural semifinals where they face Hikone Higashi and Kita-Ootsu, winning those games barely 2-1 and 3-1. That continued with a 3-2 squeaker against PL Gakuen before Ritsumeikan Uji finally put them to bed.
From that, pitching becomes a huge key, and Taga-kantoku generally turns to ace Ogawa Ryouken (小川 良憲). As you can see, he was the ace last summer when Oumi went to Natsu Koushien. He wasn't disgraceful on the mound as he shutout Seikou Gakuin and only gave up 2 earned to Nagato in a loss. Back then, he didn't strike out a lot of batters, and that still applies even now. This despite hitting the low 140s and featuring a splitter to the standard repertoire of pitches. In fact he has a K/9 rate of 3.56, this while still managing a WHIP of 1.15.
He'll be the main starter, but Taga-kantoku brought along the 2 other pitchers he used, #10 Alexander Eiji Salazar (サラサル・アレキサンダー・英二), and #11 Kyouyama Masaya (京山 将弥). Alexander was on the roster at Koushien last year, but only saw action in the game against Ritsumeikan Uji. it went well though as he pitched 3 scoreless, striking out 2 and walking 2.
Offensively, the team hit 0.310 which is average at best given the competition, but they did draw more than their fair share of walks (their OBP is over 80 points higher than their BA). The most bizarre part is that they had more triples (8) than doubles (6)! That's generally more a sign that the defenses played them poorly unless perhaps they have team speed, which they don't. LF Sugino Shougo (杉野 翔梧) had 4 of those 8 triples, but just 1 double. So I don't really know if some of those triples should be doubles, or even singles. 1B Yamamoto Daichi (山本 大地) was the only hitter with more than 1 double (2).
The offense seems suspect, though it does at least look like they're somewhat patient at the plate. Of course, that only works if you're facing a pitcher who's either fatiguing or who has poor control, which at this stage is very hard to find (it does exist though, as we've seen). Kyushu Sangyoudai Kyushu may be a good matchup to start, but despite a power arm it would appear that this team has a very small margin of error only because of their offense.
To be honest, it was pretty much a simple process of elimination to determine that Oumi would be the final team to advance.
They probably played the fewest number of games for any of the qualifying teams, playing 5 in the prefecturals and 2 more in the super-regionals. They weren't tested until the prefectural semifinals where they face Hikone Higashi and Kita-Ootsu, winning those games barely 2-1 and 3-1. That continued with a 3-2 squeaker against PL Gakuen before Ritsumeikan Uji finally put them to bed.
From that, pitching becomes a huge key, and Taga-kantoku generally turns to ace Ogawa Ryouken (小川 良憲). As you can see, he was the ace last summer when Oumi went to Natsu Koushien. He wasn't disgraceful on the mound as he shutout Seikou Gakuin and only gave up 2 earned to Nagato in a loss. Back then, he didn't strike out a lot of batters, and that still applies even now. This despite hitting the low 140s and featuring a splitter to the standard repertoire of pitches. In fact he has a K/9 rate of 3.56, this while still managing a WHIP of 1.15.
He'll be the main starter, but Taga-kantoku brought along the 2 other pitchers he used, #10 Alexander Eiji Salazar (サラサル・アレキサンダー・英二), and #11 Kyouyama Masaya (京山 将弥). Alexander was on the roster at Koushien last year, but only saw action in the game against Ritsumeikan Uji. it went well though as he pitched 3 scoreless, striking out 2 and walking 2.
Offensively, the team hit 0.310 which is average at best given the competition, but they did draw more than their fair share of walks (their OBP is over 80 points higher than their BA). The most bizarre part is that they had more triples (8) than doubles (6)! That's generally more a sign that the defenses played them poorly unless perhaps they have team speed, which they don't. LF Sugino Shougo (杉野 翔梧) had 4 of those 8 triples, but just 1 double. So I don't really know if some of those triples should be doubles, or even singles. 1B Yamamoto Daichi (山本 大地) was the only hitter with more than 1 double (2).
The offense seems suspect, though it does at least look like they're somewhat patient at the plate. Of course, that only works if you're facing a pitcher who's either fatiguing or who has poor control, which at this stage is very hard to find (it does exist though, as we've seen). Kyushu Sangyoudai Kyushu may be a good matchup to start, but despite a power arm it would appear that this team has a very small margin of error only because of their offense.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Reviewing the field - Kinki quarterfinalist Osaka Touin
Ok, now to the team that in my opinion has a black hat, Osaka Touin.
I won't go back into the details, but I'm not surprised that they've been able to reload and qualify for Senbatsu, though they only reached the quarterfinals.
You'd think that maybe they just reached the quarterfinals and perhaps packed it in a bit knowing that brand name might carry them and they wouldn't have to show their wares as much compared to the rest, but Nishitani-kantoku sent out ace Tanaka Seiya (田中 誠也), so there's that.
Tanaka has some experience at Koushien as Nishitani-kantoku sent him to start their first game against Kaisei (Shimane), and struggled giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in his 5 innings of work. Given, it was mostly in the 1st inning, and it was probably nerves because he still struck out 7 in his time on the mound. He came back against Yazu to pitch a complete game shutout, yielding just 3 hits while striking out 7.
He was rarely pitching in high leverage situations as outside of a 5-1 win over Osaka Shoudai, his team had only one other full game before their loss to Tenri, and that was in the final against PL Gakuen, and that's only because it was required since it was the prefectural final.
Tanaka's K rates are massive. He struck out 74 in 57 IP of work, including 10 in his loss to Tenri. He did issue 23 walks, but still maintained a WHIP of 1.12. He looks to be the guy as the other 3 pitchers used pitched a total of 4 innings. Still, Nishitani-kantoku has brought along #10 Matsui Koutarou (松井 孝太郎) and #11 Takayama Yuuki (高山 優希), but I'm not sure how much time either pitcher will get.
Offensively, the team batted 0.399(!), with an ISO of 0.249(!!). 42 of their 101 hits went for extra bases. As you'd expect from an Osaka Touin team. You can point to just about the entire roster for guys who look like they could hit, so I'm not really sure which players to key in on.
The strength of their competition should regress their numbers significantly, but they should still be able to hit. The question will be whether or not the pitching can hold out. Tanaka isn't as good as the numbers project, but this team might just be scary, yet again.
*sighs*
I won't go back into the details, but I'm not surprised that they've been able to reload and qualify for Senbatsu, though they only reached the quarterfinals.
You'd think that maybe they just reached the quarterfinals and perhaps packed it in a bit knowing that brand name might carry them and they wouldn't have to show their wares as much compared to the rest, but Nishitani-kantoku sent out ace Tanaka Seiya (田中 誠也), so there's that.
Tanaka has some experience at Koushien as Nishitani-kantoku sent him to start their first game against Kaisei (Shimane), and struggled giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in his 5 innings of work. Given, it was mostly in the 1st inning, and it was probably nerves because he still struck out 7 in his time on the mound. He came back against Yazu to pitch a complete game shutout, yielding just 3 hits while striking out 7.
He was rarely pitching in high leverage situations as outside of a 5-1 win over Osaka Shoudai, his team had only one other full game before their loss to Tenri, and that was in the final against PL Gakuen, and that's only because it was required since it was the prefectural final.
Tanaka's K rates are massive. He struck out 74 in 57 IP of work, including 10 in his loss to Tenri. He did issue 23 walks, but still maintained a WHIP of 1.12. He looks to be the guy as the other 3 pitchers used pitched a total of 4 innings. Still, Nishitani-kantoku has brought along #10 Matsui Koutarou (松井 孝太郎) and #11 Takayama Yuuki (高山 優希), but I'm not sure how much time either pitcher will get.
Offensively, the team batted 0.399(!), with an ISO of 0.249(!!). 42 of their 101 hits went for extra bases. As you'd expect from an Osaka Touin team. You can point to just about the entire roster for guys who look like they could hit, so I'm not really sure which players to key in on.
The strength of their competition should regress their numbers significantly, but they should still be able to hit. The question will be whether or not the pitching can hold out. Tanaka isn't as good as the numbers project, but this team might just be scary, yet again.
*sighs*
Reviewing the field - Kinki semifinalist Naradai Fuzoku
Welcome Naradai Fuzoku to Koushien! It must have been tough trying to break through the duo of Tenri and Chiben Gakuen, but you've finally made it. Now, what type of team have you brought to the dance?
Unfortunately, looking at their road to the super-regional semifinals, their schedule looked extremely soft. Nara is weak to begin with, and with both of the powerhouses on the other side of the bracket, Naradai Fuzoku got a pass straight to the super-regionals despite losing 6-3 to Tenri in the final. In the super-regionals, They 2-hit Toba to start, then struggled to defeat Minoshima 3-2 before losing 4-1 to Ritsumeikan Uji.
Tanaka-kantoku primarily went with ace Sakaguchi Taisei (坂口 大誠). He throws in the upper-130s with a slider and changeup. He's very stingy with the walks (9 in 53.1 IP), but also doesn't strike out a ton of batters (6.4/9). He also has used Nakayama Reo (中山 怜央) and Keyakidani Tomonari (欅谷 智成), both of which Tanaka-kantoku has brought along with him, but neither appear to be servicable.
Offensively, the team batted 0.293 with an ISO of 0.116. 6 players batted over 0.300, but 3 of the 9 starting numbers batted less than 0.150. That's just plain awful. Of course with those extremes you also have hitters like leadoff CF Katou Kazuki (加藤 和希) who in his 10 hits had 5 doubles and 1 triple, and #5 batter RF Iino Keiji (飯野 圭史), who had 4 doubles in his 10 knocks.
But this profile for their offense is unprecedented. I've projected teams to be giving outs away at the bottom of the order before, but in this case they're already doing it! They have to be providing something defensively, otherwise there's no way they could stand doing that. The team did average just 1 error per game, but 3 were against Tenri where I have to figure there was some pressure despite already having a spot secured in the super-regionals. And now that they're playing at Koushien for their first time, I don't know if they return to that form.
Congrats to reaching the semifinals and getting to Senbatsu, but they have Tsuruga Kehi first up. To have any chance of winning that game, Hiranuma has to be injured and cannot pitch. Even then this is a very, very tough game to win.
Unfortunately, looking at their road to the super-regional semifinals, their schedule looked extremely soft. Nara is weak to begin with, and with both of the powerhouses on the other side of the bracket, Naradai Fuzoku got a pass straight to the super-regionals despite losing 6-3 to Tenri in the final. In the super-regionals, They 2-hit Toba to start, then struggled to defeat Minoshima 3-2 before losing 4-1 to Ritsumeikan Uji.
Tanaka-kantoku primarily went with ace Sakaguchi Taisei (坂口 大誠). He throws in the upper-130s with a slider and changeup. He's very stingy with the walks (9 in 53.1 IP), but also doesn't strike out a ton of batters (6.4/9). He also has used Nakayama Reo (中山 怜央) and Keyakidani Tomonari (欅谷 智成), both of which Tanaka-kantoku has brought along with him, but neither appear to be servicable.
Offensively, the team batted 0.293 with an ISO of 0.116. 6 players batted over 0.300, but 3 of the 9 starting numbers batted less than 0.150. That's just plain awful. Of course with those extremes you also have hitters like leadoff CF Katou Kazuki (加藤 和希) who in his 10 hits had 5 doubles and 1 triple, and #5 batter RF Iino Keiji (飯野 圭史), who had 4 doubles in his 10 knocks.
But this profile for their offense is unprecedented. I've projected teams to be giving outs away at the bottom of the order before, but in this case they're already doing it! They have to be providing something defensively, otherwise there's no way they could stand doing that. The team did average just 1 error per game, but 3 were against Tenri where I have to figure there was some pressure despite already having a spot secured in the super-regionals. And now that they're playing at Koushien for their first time, I don't know if they return to that form.
Congrats to reaching the semifinals and getting to Senbatsu, but they have Tsuruga Kehi first up. To have any chance of winning that game, Hiranuma has to be injured and cannot pitch. Even then this is a very, very tough game to win.
Reviewing the field - Kinki semifinalist Ryuukokudai Heian
Ryuukokudai Heian makes a quick turnaround from Natsu Koushien by qualifying for their 3rd consecutive Senbatsu (and their 39th overall!). They had a poor showing, falling to Kasukabe Kyouei in the first round 5-1, so have they improved since then?
Well, first of all, par of the reason why they lost was that the starter Harada-kantoku chose for that game, Motouji Reiji, completely cratered out of the blocks. #10 Takahashi Keiji (高橋 奎二) was sent in and pitched 6.2 innings of shutout ball while striking out 8 and allowing just a pair of hits and walks.
Takahashi now has become the staff ace. He can throw in the mid-140s with a slider, curve, and changeup. And unlike last year, Harada-kantoku does not appear to have a backup plan. Like Ritsumeikan Uji's Yamashita, Takahashi was also thrown out there for every inning of every game. Unlike Yamashita, his numbers look at least more normal. His K/9 rate is just a shade under 8, and his WHIP sits at a tidy 1.13.
At the same time though, their level of competition looks a bit softer. They played Tier 3 schools Kyoto Shouei and Kyoto Seishou and blew them out. And as mentioned in the previous article, they narrowly beat Ritsumeikan Uji 2-1 to win the prefecture. Things started well in the super-regionals as well when they shutout Osaka Shoudai Sakai. But then they played a close game against Kita-Ootsu (who did not make the field), and then were beaten soundly by Tenri.
On offense, the team batted an almost even 0.300. More promising to some extent is that their ISO sits at 0.141. Of the 8 starting numbers who played all 8 games, half batted over 0.300 though 2 were in the 0.310s. Their best hitter is cleanup hitter 1B Nishikawa Hirotaka (西川 寛崇) who batted 0.379 with 3 doubles and 3 triples. At the same time, 2 of the 3 batters hit under 0.240. The doubles are good because it might suggest that they have gap power, but that's not a guaranteed assumption.
Heian's prospects, directly compared to fellow participant Ritsumeikan Uji, looks better. But I'm not sure on the whole how much better. Takahashi as he was last year shutout Kasukabe Kyouei, and you have to assume there is improvement. But the loss to Tenri with just 1 run to show for it is not good. Of course, in a single game elimination format, all it takes is one bad game so perhaps there are excuses. But they draw Urawa Gakuin first, and that's not good at all. If they can win that game, the bracket opens up all the way to the semifinals, but this is a very high hurdle to clear first up.
Well, first of all, par of the reason why they lost was that the starter Harada-kantoku chose for that game, Motouji Reiji, completely cratered out of the blocks. #10 Takahashi Keiji (高橋 奎二) was sent in and pitched 6.2 innings of shutout ball while striking out 8 and allowing just a pair of hits and walks.
Takahashi now has become the staff ace. He can throw in the mid-140s with a slider, curve, and changeup. And unlike last year, Harada-kantoku does not appear to have a backup plan. Like Ritsumeikan Uji's Yamashita, Takahashi was also thrown out there for every inning of every game. Unlike Yamashita, his numbers look at least more normal. His K/9 rate is just a shade under 8, and his WHIP sits at a tidy 1.13.
At the same time though, their level of competition looks a bit softer. They played Tier 3 schools Kyoto Shouei and Kyoto Seishou and blew them out. And as mentioned in the previous article, they narrowly beat Ritsumeikan Uji 2-1 to win the prefecture. Things started well in the super-regionals as well when they shutout Osaka Shoudai Sakai. But then they played a close game against Kita-Ootsu (who did not make the field), and then were beaten soundly by Tenri.
On offense, the team batted an almost even 0.300. More promising to some extent is that their ISO sits at 0.141. Of the 8 starting numbers who played all 8 games, half batted over 0.300 though 2 were in the 0.310s. Their best hitter is cleanup hitter 1B Nishikawa Hirotaka (西川 寛崇) who batted 0.379 with 3 doubles and 3 triples. At the same time, 2 of the 3 batters hit under 0.240. The doubles are good because it might suggest that they have gap power, but that's not a guaranteed assumption.
Heian's prospects, directly compared to fellow participant Ritsumeikan Uji, looks better. But I'm not sure on the whole how much better. Takahashi as he was last year shutout Kasukabe Kyouei, and you have to assume there is improvement. But the loss to Tenri with just 1 run to show for it is not good. Of course, in a single game elimination format, all it takes is one bad game so perhaps there are excuses. But they draw Urawa Gakuin first, and that's not good at all. If they can win that game, the bracket opens up all the way to the semifinals, but this is a very high hurdle to clear first up.
Reviewing the field - Kinki runner-up Ritsumeikan Uji
Ritsumeikan Uji isn't necessarily one of the top teams out of Kyoyo, but like their counterparts Ryuukokudai Heian, they have 5 kanji in their names, and they're still pretty good. They're making just their 3rd appearance though, so there's still some excitement in going (I figure once you've made it for a while, it's more of an expectation than a joy, but that's just me).
The road out of the Kyoto prefecturals wasn't quite smooth sailing. First, they faced their primary school Ritsumeikan in the 2nd round, and narrowly won in the 1st stage matchup 7-6. They then barely got by a game (but not excellent) Toba squad in the semifinals, clinching their spot in the super-regionals. Losing to the aforementioned Ryuukokudai Heian 2-1 wasn't as bad at that point.
From there, their path to the finals wasn't as tough on paper as Tenri's, but it still had some Koushien teams - Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku and Oumi to start, then a softer matchup against Naradai Fuzoku to cement their position at Koushien.
Even still, they went with their first squad (not that they had a choice necessarily, more on that in a bit), but were rocked 8-4 to deny them the title.
On the overall, the resume at first glance is not impressive.
First of all, Udaki-kantoku went with 1 pitcher the entire fall run - ace Yamashita Taiga (山下 太雅). No information on his repertoire though, but he struggled to strike out 6 per 9 innings, and carried a WHIP of 1.45! Not only that, but he was issuing walks at an alarming pace (60 walks compared to 73 hits!). That has to be really concerning, though perhaps it was because he was wearing down - he had 29 walks in his last 4 games.
The team does carry 2 other pitchers on the Koushien roster, #10 Tanaka Satoru (田中 覺) and #11 Yoshihara Shouta (吉原 章汰). But they weren't used in the super-regionals, so there's almost no chance they'd use them on the big stage.
Offensively, the team batted 0.335, which isn't bad at all given they did play good competition. They did have some extra base hits as indicated by their 0.103 ISO. 6 batters hit over 0.300, but the other 3 were closer to the Mendoza line (that's 0.200 for those not familiar). Oddly, while #3 batter LF Nara Shouhei (奈良 祥平) had more than a third of the team's doubles (6 of 17), it's cleanup hitter 1B Itou Taiga (伊藤 大賀) who had 25% of the team's RBI total (17 of 68).
This concerns me even more about the state of the Kinki region. The fact that this team, with this ace, was able to reach the super-regional final seems more of an abnormality than the norm. The last time I can remember a team that had an ace that walked batters at the rate Yamashita has is probably Hifumi Shinta from Toukaidai Sagami when he changed his arm slot his senior year. Considering that we haven't really heard about this pitcher beforehand, and there's little information on him suggests that he is no Hifumi - and that's a big problem.
They get Shizuoka to start, and they could easily have drawn worse, but Shizuoka isn't a pushover and I would be really interested to see how this team plays on the field because from the looks of things this team shouldn't be here, or should have been one of the last teams in.
The road out of the Kyoto prefecturals wasn't quite smooth sailing. First, they faced their primary school Ritsumeikan in the 2nd round, and narrowly won in the 1st stage matchup 7-6. They then barely got by a game (but not excellent) Toba squad in the semifinals, clinching their spot in the super-regionals. Losing to the aforementioned Ryuukokudai Heian 2-1 wasn't as bad at that point.
From there, their path to the finals wasn't as tough on paper as Tenri's, but it still had some Koushien teams - Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku and Oumi to start, then a softer matchup against Naradai Fuzoku to cement their position at Koushien.
Even still, they went with their first squad (not that they had a choice necessarily, more on that in a bit), but were rocked 8-4 to deny them the title.
On the overall, the resume at first glance is not impressive.
First of all, Udaki-kantoku went with 1 pitcher the entire fall run - ace Yamashita Taiga (山下 太雅). No information on his repertoire though, but he struggled to strike out 6 per 9 innings, and carried a WHIP of 1.45! Not only that, but he was issuing walks at an alarming pace (60 walks compared to 73 hits!). That has to be really concerning, though perhaps it was because he was wearing down - he had 29 walks in his last 4 games.
The team does carry 2 other pitchers on the Koushien roster, #10 Tanaka Satoru (田中 覺) and #11 Yoshihara Shouta (吉原 章汰). But they weren't used in the super-regionals, so there's almost no chance they'd use them on the big stage.
Offensively, the team batted 0.335, which isn't bad at all given they did play good competition. They did have some extra base hits as indicated by their 0.103 ISO. 6 batters hit over 0.300, but the other 3 were closer to the Mendoza line (that's 0.200 for those not familiar). Oddly, while #3 batter LF Nara Shouhei (奈良 祥平) had more than a third of the team's doubles (6 of 17), it's cleanup hitter 1B Itou Taiga (伊藤 大賀) who had 25% of the team's RBI total (17 of 68).
This concerns me even more about the state of the Kinki region. The fact that this team, with this ace, was able to reach the super-regional final seems more of an abnormality than the norm. The last time I can remember a team that had an ace that walked batters at the rate Yamashita has is probably Hifumi Shinta from Toukaidai Sagami when he changed his arm slot his senior year. Considering that we haven't really heard about this pitcher beforehand, and there's little information on him suggests that he is no Hifumi - and that's a big problem.
They get Shizuoka to start, and they could easily have drawn worse, but Shizuoka isn't a pushover and I would be really interested to see how this team plays on the field because from the looks of things this team shouldn't be here, or should have been one of the last teams in.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Reviewing the field - Kinki champion Tenri
Oh, the love-hate relationship I have with Tenri. When I first got into kokoyakyu, I cheered for them as they were a dominant team in a prefecture, plus one of my mom's customers was a missionary for the Tenrikyo Church and had let me use her dormitory room when I traveled there for the first time. The religion itself I admit is a bit odd, but I won't disparage it.
Anyways, as time passed I began to realize that Nara wasn't exactly a strong baseball prefecture, and that they - along with Chiben Gakuen, pretty much dominated the soft scene. Not only that, but the success didn't translate to Koushien.
So when I started to give up on Tenri, here they come again. They're still not reaching the top like they did before, so despite winning the Kinki tournament, it still feels like they're not a contender. But let's go to the data.
First, they got through the prefecturals defeating Chiben Gakuen in the semifinals, and then up-and-coming Naradai Fuzoku (who is trying to permanently breakup the duo monopoly). Note that Naradai Fuzoku has made the field as well.
The list of opponents they defeated in the super-regionals was a list of Koushien mainstays. Houtoku Gakuen, Osaka Touin (dear Lord I glanced at their numbers and I'm a bit worried they won't get their comeuppance), Ryuukokudai Heian and Ritsumeikan Uji.
Every game with the exception of 1 they won by 4 or more runs. The only game that wasn't? Osaka Touin in the quarterfinals, where despite 10 strikeouts, they advanced with a 3-2 win. And yet, they put up double digit hits in each of their games.
The problem with all this? In their very first game against Sendai Ikuei, they struck out 12 times, delivered only 6 hits, and lost 6-1.
Oy.
And this may be why I have to wonder if the Kinki region as a whole is perhaps weaker than you'd expect.
So, what is under the engine of this team that won the central region?
Hm... I don't really know.
The team batted 0.329, which given the competition seems to be good. 7 HRs in 11 games is also not bad - 3 of which came from cleanup hitter 1B Sakaguchi Hiroya (坂口 漠弥). Over 20% of their hits (24 total) went for extra bases, 4 of which came from their leading RBI guy SS Sadamitsu Hiroto (貞光 広登). And only two people in their lineup had a batting average of less than 0.300. Weirdly, one of those people is cleanup hitter CF Funabiki Wataru (舩曳 海), who made up of a 0.262 BA with 11 walks in 53 plate appearances and stole 11 of the team 16 bases - though a lot of those came early against weaker competition.
On the mound, ace Saitou Yuu (齋藤 佑羽) gets most of the work, but is generally spelled on a consistent basis by Moriura Daisuke (森浦 大輔). Another anomaly, he doesn't wear the traditional #10 the main relieve usually gets. Instead he wears #11 while another reliever, Ouji Shuu (王子 修), who was used sparingly instead received the #10.
Back to Saitou, he carries a K/9 rate of less than 7, and a WHIP a tick over 1.10. But despite being the champs, there is little information about his pitching.
I really don't know what to make of this team - and they're the champions no less! The resume appears sound given the competition, but the sound defeat to Sendai Ikuei is a huge query. If they can handle Itoman, a possible matchup with Kendai Takasaki will be a great barometer of their chances.
Anyways, as time passed I began to realize that Nara wasn't exactly a strong baseball prefecture, and that they - along with Chiben Gakuen, pretty much dominated the soft scene. Not only that, but the success didn't translate to Koushien.
So when I started to give up on Tenri, here they come again. They're still not reaching the top like they did before, so despite winning the Kinki tournament, it still feels like they're not a contender. But let's go to the data.
First, they got through the prefecturals defeating Chiben Gakuen in the semifinals, and then up-and-coming Naradai Fuzoku (who is trying to permanently breakup the duo monopoly). Note that Naradai Fuzoku has made the field as well.
The list of opponents they defeated in the super-regionals was a list of Koushien mainstays. Houtoku Gakuen, Osaka Touin (dear Lord I glanced at their numbers and I'm a bit worried they won't get their comeuppance), Ryuukokudai Heian and Ritsumeikan Uji.
Every game with the exception of 1 they won by 4 or more runs. The only game that wasn't? Osaka Touin in the quarterfinals, where despite 10 strikeouts, they advanced with a 3-2 win. And yet, they put up double digit hits in each of their games.
The problem with all this? In their very first game against Sendai Ikuei, they struck out 12 times, delivered only 6 hits, and lost 6-1.
Oy.
And this may be why I have to wonder if the Kinki region as a whole is perhaps weaker than you'd expect.
So, what is under the engine of this team that won the central region?
Hm... I don't really know.
The team batted 0.329, which given the competition seems to be good. 7 HRs in 11 games is also not bad - 3 of which came from cleanup hitter 1B Sakaguchi Hiroya (坂口 漠弥). Over 20% of their hits (24 total) went for extra bases, 4 of which came from their leading RBI guy SS Sadamitsu Hiroto (貞光 広登). And only two people in their lineup had a batting average of less than 0.300. Weirdly, one of those people is cleanup hitter CF Funabiki Wataru (舩曳 海), who made up of a 0.262 BA with 11 walks in 53 plate appearances and stole 11 of the team 16 bases - though a lot of those came early against weaker competition.
On the mound, ace Saitou Yuu (齋藤 佑羽) gets most of the work, but is generally spelled on a consistent basis by Moriura Daisuke (森浦 大輔). Another anomaly, he doesn't wear the traditional #10 the main relieve usually gets. Instead he wears #11 while another reliever, Ouji Shuu (王子 修), who was used sparingly instead received the #10.
Back to Saitou, he carries a K/9 rate of less than 7, and a WHIP a tick over 1.10. But despite being the champs, there is little information about his pitching.
I really don't know what to make of this team - and they're the champions no less! The resume appears sound given the competition, but the sound defeat to Sendai Ikuei is a huge query. If they can handle Itoman, a possible matchup with Kendai Takasaki will be a great barometer of their chances.
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