Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Reviewing the field - Kinki runner-up Ritsumeikan Uji

Ritsumeikan Uji isn't necessarily one of the top teams out of Kyoyo, but like their counterparts Ryuukokudai Heian, they have 5 kanji in their names, and they're still pretty good. They're making just their 3rd appearance though, so there's still some excitement in going (I figure once you've made it for a while, it's more of an expectation than a joy, but that's just me).

The road out of the Kyoto prefecturals wasn't quite smooth sailing. First, they faced their primary school Ritsumeikan in the 2nd round, and narrowly won in the 1st stage matchup 7-6. They then barely got by a game (but not excellent) Toba squad in the semifinals, clinching their spot in the super-regionals. Losing to the aforementioned Ryuukokudai Heian 2-1 wasn't as bad at that point.

From there, their path to the finals wasn't as tough on paper as Tenri's, but it still had some Koushien teams - Kobe Kokusaidai Fuzoku and Oumi to start, then a softer matchup against Naradai Fuzoku to cement their position at Koushien.

Even still, they went with their first squad (not that they had a choice necessarily, more on that in a bit), but were rocked 8-4 to deny them the title.

On the overall, the resume at first glance is not impressive.

First of all, Udaki-kantoku went with 1 pitcher the entire fall run - ace Yamashita Taiga (山下 太雅). No information on his repertoire though, but he struggled to strike out 6 per 9 innings, and carried a WHIP of 1.45! Not only that, but he was issuing walks at an alarming pace (60 walks compared to 73 hits!). That has to be really concerning, though perhaps it was because he was wearing down - he had 29 walks in his last 4 games.

The team does carry 2 other pitchers on the Koushien roster, #10 Tanaka Satoru (田中 覺) and #11 Yoshihara Shouta (吉原 章汰). But they weren't used in the super-regionals, so there's almost no chance they'd use them on the big stage.

Offensively, the team batted 0.335, which isn't bad at all given they did play good competition. They did have some extra base hits as indicated by their 0.103 ISO. 6 batters hit over 0.300, but the other 3 were closer to the Mendoza line (that's 0.200 for those not familiar). Oddly, while #3 batter LF Nara Shouhei (奈良 祥平) had more than a third of the team's doubles (6 of 17), it's cleanup hitter 1B Itou Taiga (伊藤 大賀) who had 25% of the team's RBI total (17 of 68).

This concerns me even more about the state of the Kinki region. The fact that this team, with this ace, was able to reach the super-regional final seems more of an abnormality than the norm. The last time I can remember a team that had an ace that walked batters at the rate Yamashita has is probably Hifumi Shinta from Toukaidai Sagami when he changed his arm slot his senior year. Considering that we haven't really heard about this pitcher beforehand, and there's little information on him suggests that he is no Hifumi - and that's a big problem.

They get Shizuoka to start, and they could easily have drawn worse, but Shizuoka isn't a pushover and I would be really interested to see how this team plays on the field because from the looks of things this team shouldn't be here, or should have been one of the last teams in.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Reviewing the field - Kinki champion Tenri

Oh, the love-hate relationship I have with Tenri. When I first got into kokoyakyu, I cheered for them as they were a dominant team in a prefecture, plus one of my mom's customers was a missionary for the Tenrikyo Church and had let me use her dormitory room when I traveled there for the first time. The religion itself I admit is a bit odd, but I won't disparage it.

Anyways, as time passed I began to realize that Nara wasn't exactly a strong baseball prefecture, and that they - along with Chiben Gakuen, pretty much dominated the soft scene. Not only that, but the success didn't translate to Koushien.

So when I started to give up on Tenri, here they come again. They're still not reaching the top like they did before, so despite winning the Kinki tournament, it still feels like they're not a contender. But let's go to the data.

First, they got through the prefecturals defeating Chiben Gakuen in the semifinals, and then up-and-coming Naradai Fuzoku (who is trying to permanently breakup the duo monopoly). Note that Naradai Fuzoku has made the field as well.

The list of opponents they defeated in the super-regionals was a list of Koushien mainstays. Houtoku Gakuen, Osaka Touin (dear Lord I glanced at their numbers and I'm a bit worried they won't get their comeuppance), Ryuukokudai Heian and Ritsumeikan Uji.

Every game with the exception of 1 they won by 4 or more runs. The only game that wasn't? Osaka Touin in the quarterfinals, where despite 10 strikeouts, they advanced with a 3-2 win. And yet, they put up double digit hits in each of their games.

The problem with all this? In their very first game against Sendai Ikuei, they struck out 12 times, delivered only 6 hits, and lost 6-1.

Oy.

And this may be why I have to wonder if the Kinki region as a whole is perhaps weaker than you'd expect.

So, what is under the engine of this team that won the central region?

Hm... I don't really know.

The team batted 0.329, which given the competition seems to be good. 7 HRs in 11 games is also not bad - 3 of which came from cleanup hitter 1B Sakaguchi Hiroya (坂口 漠弥). Over 20% of their hits (24 total) went for extra bases, 4 of which came from their leading RBI guy SS Sadamitsu Hiroto (貞光 広登). And only two people in their lineup had a batting average of less than 0.300. Weirdly, one of those people is cleanup hitter CF Funabiki Wataru (舩曳 海), who made up of a 0.262 BA with 11 walks in 53 plate appearances and stole 11 of the team 16 bases - though a lot of those came early against weaker competition.

On the mound, ace Saitou Yuu (齋藤 佑羽) gets most of the work, but is generally spelled on a consistent basis by Moriura Daisuke (森浦 大輔). Another anomaly, he doesn't wear the traditional #10 the main relieve usually gets. Instead he wears #11 while another reliever, Ouji Shuu (王子 修), who was used sparingly instead received the #10.

Back to Saitou, he carries a K/9 rate of less than 7, and a WHIP a tick over 1.10. But despite being the champs, there is little information about his pitching.

I really don't know what to make of this team - and they're the champions no less! The resume appears sound given the competition, but the sound defeat to Sendai Ikuei is a huge query. If they can handle Itoman, a possible matchup with Kendai Takasaki will be a great barometer of their chances.

Reviewing the field - Tokai runner-up Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou

Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou, or Kengifusho as they are nicknamed, pokes its head into the Koushien field yet again after a year off. They're generally a main stay from Gifu, along with Shiritsu Gifu Shougyou and Oogaki Nichidai (which I managed to visit back in 2011, but got in trouble taking pictures - the only place where I did).

Their run was not necessarily trouble-free, but in every game up until the final (14 in all), they gave up 3 or fewer runs. However, they had 6 games where they scored 2 runs or less, 2 of which they lost.

A lot of their success then should be placed on their ace Takahashi Jyunpei (高橋 純平), who had a 0.47 ERA in 77 IP, while carrying a K/IP of >1, and a WHIP of 0.66! Yes, given the competition, it should be regressed, but at some point you have to tip your hat and say he's a great pitcher. He can supposedly hit 150 on the radar gun, and while he has the slider and curve, he has the new hot thing - a splitter. And if he indeed throws as hard as reports say, that splitter can wreak havoc upon the field.

Now, there's #10 Katamine Daisuke (片峯 大輔) and 1B Murahashi Kazuaki (村橋 主晟) who have spent time on the mound, but in all likelihood it will be as Takahashi goes, so does the team.

Offensively, while the team did struggle to score runs, they still managed to have a batting average of over 0.300 (0.314). But when two of your better XBH hitters are at the bottom of the lineup? Not so good. Their big RBI guy statistically was LF Hirose Masaru (広瀬 将), and he had 3 XBH in 13 hits.

I don't need to reiterate, but I might as well - depending solely on pitching to get you through (think Toyoudai Himeji of a couple of years back), is not a formula for success. It can get you deep into a tournament, but unless Takahashi can outlast the schedule - which may include a back-to-back set with Urawa Gakuin on the backend, 2 wins is probably as far as they can go. Upside is a title chance, but the offense cannot have an off day.

Reviewing the field - Tokai champions Shizuoka

It's not a straight shot, but a Limited Express Shinano and a Shinkansen Hikari away brings us to the Tokai region and their champion Shizuoka. Not much of a surprise here given they have surged to the top of the prefecture, passing schools like Tokoha Kikugawa and their sister school Tokoha Tachibana.

Speaking of which, right off the bat they had to play Tokoha Tachibana. They still won via mercy rule, but they gave up 5 runs - which normally that early on is not a good sign. But given their opponent and it was their first game, they get a pass. After that, it was a breeze to the final wherein ace Muraki Fumiya (村木 文哉) probably tired out. They still defeated Hamamatsu Shuugakusha 13-8, but by that time it was his 4th game in the span of 1 week.

The super-regionals went just about as easy mercy-ruling both of their opponents - including Nichidai Mishima (again), setting up a final against Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou. Once again, Muraki was pitching multiple games on short rest, and he was again relieved. Shizuoka would eventually win 7-6 in 12 innings to claim the title.

Despite almost 3 weeks off, Muraki wasn't on his A-game against Toukaidai Sugao at Meiji Jingu and as a result were one-and-done.

Muraki is apparently a standard fare pitcher who can throw in the mid-130s. He only struck out a tick over 7 batters per 9, while his WHIP is a shade under 1.20. #10 Muramatsu Ryuutarou (村松 遼太朗) is the main backup, but his numbers were not better.

Offensively, the team hit a gaudy 0.419, with double digit hits in 9 of their 11 games. But given the competition, it certainly should be scaled back. 5 players were able to tack a HR to their stats, but the 2 players to look out for are the 4-5 combo of C Horiuchi Kengo (堀内 謙伍) and SS Yasumoto Ryuuji (安本 竜二). There's also LF Hirose Shun (廣瀬 舜), but for the most part everyone else are singles hitters.

Shizuoka gets a bit of an ask in Ritsumeikan Uji to start. It's not out of their reach, and the next game against either Kisaradzu Sougou or Okayama Ridai Fuzoku isn't out of the question either given that Muraki will get 4 full days off between games. After that though may prove to be too much for the Tokai champs.

Reviewing the field - Hokushinetsu runner-up Matsushou Gakuen

It's been a while since Matsushou Gakuen made it back to Koushien, but they've been generally one of the better teams in Nagano. Now they make their first trip back to Senbatsu in 24 years.

It wasn't without some issues though as they had lost to Matsumoto Dai-ichi in the final round of the Chuushin regionals. But, they came back in the prefecturals and defeated both Ueda Nishi and Nagano Nichidai back-to-back to claim the prefectural title. Following that, it was games against Hokuetsu, Kanazawa and Chuuetsu to reach the title game (FYI, Hokuetsu and Chuuetsu are high tier 3 schools in Niigata, and Kanazawa we know from their multiple Koushien appearances). Of course, they ran into Tsuruga Kehi then and got shutout to the tune of 3 hits.

The pitching staff, led by ace Onda Yuuya (恩田 佑哉), struggled at times with their competition. His K/IP rate was less than 1, and while his WHIP was barely over 1 at 1.06 about a third of it was attributable to walks, which against stiffer competition may only get worse. Submariner #10 Tokuda Ryousuke (徳田 涼介), and #11 Haga Kazuya (羽賀 和也) are also on the roster, but they posted worse numbers and probably can't be counted upon.

Offensively, the team batted over 0.300, with 5 players individually over said mark. Of note are CF Momose Masaya (百瀬 雅也), who hit 0.488 and stole 14 bases, 1B Arakura Kenta (新倉 健太) who hit 4 doubled and drive in 14 of the team's 64 runs, as well as reserves Koshimizu Masamichi (輿水 将道) and Miyajima Shunpei (宮嶋 隼平) who may see time on the field or even be a starter.

Still, the team didn't cruise through a super-regional that is generally considered weaker than others, and the pitching appears average compared to participants in the past. Kenritsu Gifu Shougyou will not be an easy game to start, and it's possible they could be a one-and-done team when all is said and done.

Reviewing the field - Hokushinetsu champions Tsuruga Kehi

Originally, when I had seen Tsuruga Kehi's gaudy scores in the super-regionals, I thought that they were on the warpath again - blowing out teams left and right, and showing no mercy. But a closer look at things suggest that they may be in a bit of trouble.

Their form through winning the super-regionals was excellent. Ace Hiranuma Shouta (平沼 翔太) was used sparingly in the prefecturals, and not in the championship game since they had already qualified. After that it was almost exclusively Hiranuma who with the exception of a pair of runs to small unknown Komoro Shougyou out of Nagano, threw up bagels.

That seemed to bode well for them leading up to the Meiji Jingu tournament, but the problem was that he seemed to struggle against Eimei though they would eventually win 7-5. But he would not take the hill against Kyushu Gakuin as they would fall badly 8-3. It would late be reported that he had suffered a lower foot injury.

All other things aside, this could prove to be fatal for Tsuruga Kehi. The next man up, Yamazaki Souichirou (山﨑 颯一郎), was ineffective against Kyushu Gakuin. And the two relievers that followed fared no better. Hiranuma is on the roster for the tournament, but as we've seen in years past, it could just be in name only as he may never take the field. He wasn't on the mound for practice games following the Meiji Jingu tournament so there's that too. And perhaps the last nail in coffin is that Azuma-kantoku is bringing in 3 more "relievers" outside of #18 Yamazaki - #10 Unno Ryuuichirou (海野 隆一朗), #11 Hara Ryou (原 綾) and #17 Matsumoto Souma (松本 早馬). Hara and Unno both started that disaster of a game against Kyushu Gakuin.

Finally, to beat a dead horse, Hiranuma is their cleanup batter as well. He hit 3 of the team's 4 HRs, and drove in 20% of the team's runs while going 16-32. If he's not in the lineup, their run production is cut dramatically. They still have some good hitters on the team, including leadoff hitter 3B Shinohara Ryou (篠原 涼), 2B Nakai Kidzuku (中井 基継), and CF Yamamoto Kouta (山本 皓大), but the loss of Hiranuma would be crippling.

Long story short, if Hiranuma is available and at near full strength, the team can be a force to be reckoned with. If he's unavailable, they may not get by Sendai Ikuei in the 2nd round.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Reviewing the field - Kanto semifinalist Jyousou Gakuin

And now, the final representative from Kanto - Jyousou Gakuin.

Looking at their schedule, they got about as easy of a schedule as Kisaradzu Sougou, but perhaps not the same results. They struggled to beat Fujishiro and Tsuchiura Kohoku in the prefecturals, and had the same issues against Sano Nichidai and Hiratsuka Gakuen before narrowly falling to Kisaradzu Sougou.

As such, their prospects are immediately pegged to be even weaker than that of the already weak runner-up.

For them to have any chance, the pitching has to hold up. For that, Sasaki-kantoku turns to two underclassman pitchers, ace Suzuki Shouta (鈴木 昭汰) and #10 Kashimura Yuuta (樫村 雄大). Suzuki was actually part of the U15 national team. He has supposedly ticked up his fastball to the upper 130s and has the standard fare of pitches (slider, curve). There's less information on Kashimura, but he too apparently has the standard selection on pitches.

Even though these are the main 2 pitchers, Sasaki-kantoku has brought along 2 other pitchers - #11 Sugawara Kazuhiro (菅原 一泰) and #18 Inoue Masaki (井上 真幸). And apparently he's not afraid to use 1B Ishii Daiki (石井 大貴) on the mound either (2 IP in all). None of the pitchers are dominating in nature though, but still they are tasked with keeping the scoring low in order to keep the offense in the game.

They'll be under constant pressure as the team just batted a shade over 0.300, with just 3 players over said average. Leading the pack is tablesetter/captain Ugusa Kouki (宇草 孔基) who went a cool 14-26 with 6 SBs. LF Arahara Hiroki (荒原 祐貴) hit 0.423, but they were all singles.

This team will struggle to score runs, and the pitching will be stressed to the limit from the words "Play ball". The first 2 rounds they might have a chance in, but after that, witha  game against Kousei or more likely Osaka Touin, and they might as well prepare their return trip home.

Reviewing the field - Kanto semifinalist Kendai Takasaki

And now to the semifinalists of the Kanto tournament. First up, the one who lost to the eventual champs - Takasaki Kenkoudai Fukushi (i.e. Kendai Takasaki).

They're a private school yes, but they play like the dog that nips at you constantly - playing to their competition, good or bad. You can bever count them out of a game, and perhaps that's testament to their coach Aoyagi-kantoku.

So you can look at their stats all day long, but this team may be the one exception whereby we throw them out the window. But, since that's what I have to go on, I do a pump fake and bring those papers back in.

I'm going to look at offense, because that's where the team is the most gritty. The team, up until their defeat against Urawa Gakuin, hit the ball. Not hard, but hit the ball. Their team racked up double digit hits in every game except for 2, and in both games still got 8 hits. And this wasn't against no-name competition either. It was against schools like Kiryuu Dai-ichi, and former champs Maebashi Ikuei, and the aforementioned Urawa Gakuin (they got 17 hits in that one!). But unlike their profile in prior years, they do not really run, averaging just 3 SBs per game.

7 of their starting 9 in fact, hit over 0.300, and their #5 hitter 1B Ooshima Kyouhei (大島 匡平) went 10-19 with half of those hits going for extra bases! I could highlight other hitters, but the fact really is, this team at the plate does not cheat itself - ever.

On the mound, Aoyagi-kantoku used a mess of pitchers in every game except 3, and they were the 3 biggest games on their schedule - the prefectural final, and the first 2 rounds of the super-regional.

Why are they the most important? Well, winning the prefectural final means facing a 2-seed in the first round of the super-regional. And the first 2 rounds would get them to the semifinal where the odds of being omitted from the field is almost nil.

And so it was that ace Fukui Tomoya (川井 智也) would take the hill. In each progressive game though he would give up more runs, 3 to Meishuu Gakuen Hitachi, and 6 to Matsudo Kokusai.

Now, Aoyagi-kantoku has supposedly brought 3 other pitchers to Koushien - #10 Hashidzume Naoya (橋詰 直弥), #17 Miyamoto Takahiro (宮本 隆寛), and #18 Takahashi Ryousuke (髙橋 涼輔). Problem is, none of them seem usable.  Hashidzume and Takahashi have terrible ERAs, while Miyamoto was used early on, but was never seen past the prefectural semifinal. Weirdly however, Miyamoto was part of the Nomo Baseball Academy and travelled to the US. Even weirder, while wearing the #1 jersey, he never pitched a game...

Ube Koujyou isn't a completely soft opener, and a possible game against Tenri might not be great either, but while the pitching will be always a query, but you can never count out this team in any game.

Reviewing the field - Kanto runner-up Kisaradzu Sougou

Kanto's runner-up, Kisaradzu Sougou, should be credited with getting to the Kanto final. But it should be said that they perhaps got the softest run the entire way though as a team in a metropolitan region could have had.

In fact, the best brand-name team that they faced in the prefecturals might have been Chiba Keiai, and they're a borderline tier 3 school. The minute they started facing an actual Koushien powerhouse, they struggled. They managed to hold out versus Jyousou Gakuin, but then got annihilated by Urawa Gakuin in the final.

It should also be said that Gojima-kantoku basically threw the final against Urawa Gakuin, refusing to throw in the false #1 Suzuki Kenya (鈴木 健矢) and their true ace, 2nd year #10 Hayakawa Takahisa (早川 隆久).

Why do I say that Hayakawa is the ace? Because while he wasn't used as much (36 IP vs. Suzuki's 42), he was not used early on while Suzuki was sent out for their opening game. And despite the soft competition, he did not give up a run.

Not one.

Soft run or not, giving up no runs in what amounts to 4 full games is still impressive. His K/IP clip is under 1 though, so the case for it being a truly soft 0.00 ERA is perhaps strengthened. What cements it is that he throws in the low 130s with a slider in the 100s and a slow curve in the 90s. Doesn't mean that he isn't a great pitcher, just that he's probably above the average guy.

Now off to the offense, and that's where things really start to fall apart. The team hit a paltry 0.282, which given their opposition is not good. Even worse, their ISO falls in at 0.080, and their SLG is just 0.020 higher than their OBP.

Apparently Gojima has gone for a lineup by matchup basis as only 3 players played all 12 games. Not surprising that those 3 - leadoff hitter LF Kido Ryou (木戸 涼), cleanup hitter SS Himura Atsushi (檜村 篤史), and 2B Koike Kazuki (小池 航貴) - had the highest averages. Behind them, there is no member of the numbered starters who hit over 0.250, and the two that played 11 games, perhaps are in more for defensive purposes.

This is a soft runner-up school that perhaps gets a chance to get right early, but Okayama Ridai Fuzoku isn't a no-name squad either with their constant headbutting against Kanzei in-prefecture.


Reviewing the field - Kanto champs Urawa Gakuin

I mentioned in a previous post that I thought Urawa Gakuin, given their recent performance, may be locked and loaded for a deep run at Senbatsu.

I say this because in their 14 games during the fall taikai, they gave up more than 1 run just 3 times.

Three.

And that includes the games they played at Meiji Jingu. That's mighty impressive no matter how you look at it. They also included teams such as Toukou Gakuen and Kisaradzu Sougou. Not top tier, but relative mainstays.

This was accomplished not only on the back of ace Eguchi Shouri (江口 奨理), but on 3 other pitchers led by Ogura Kyousuke (小倉 匡祐). Only one other has made the roster, and that was the next man down, Imamura Kazuto (今村 一登). Now, Ogura appears to be the clear #2 that Mori-kantoku goes to, sending him out to start the super-regional semfinals and finals as well as the Meiji Jingu final. Interestingly, they're both southpaws, so that should be interesting to see if lefty-righty matchups become a problem.

Offensively, the team posted good numbers despite the deep run. 7 of their 9 starters batted over 0.300. The only problem is that they had an ISO of 0.095, which is very low. So they can get on base at a good clip, but it looks like they need to string hits together to score runs - which for the most part wasn't too hard to do - though perhaps Toukou Gakuen had a new ace that stymied them to the tune of 2 hits.

Their cleanup hitter, Yamazaki Kouta (山﨑 滉太) does not profile as your traditional cleanup man. He did drive in 16 in his 14 games, and got 6 extra base hits in his 18, but they were all doubles. There's some XBH pop in the bottom of the lineup as well in the form of LF Araki Yuuya (荒木 裕也). He has a 3B and HR to his name as well as 15 RBIs. We'll see if he stays in the 7-hole or gets moved up.

The depressed ISO is a bit concerning, but the hits do seem to keep coming despite the competition. The inability to get a big hit though could prove to be their undoing like in the Meiji Jingu title game. Still, they have the resume to make a deep run, especially given their draw.